Anti Operative

I’m skeptical that President Trump can secure a deal with Iran at this point in the war — I’ll explain why that is below, but let me first caveat my skepticism by reiterating: we don’t need to a deal to just declare victory and walk away. It’s the only way out of this mess in the short term that will deliver anything that looks like a win for the U.S. Why can’t we reach a deal with Iran? 1. Iran believes they are winning—and they are not wrong to think they are. Iran is exploiting powerful leverage, which we delivered to them: closing the SOH has obviously significantly hindered the flow of oil/gas, putting massive pressure on us and the global economy. Today, President Trump announced that the U.S. Navy has secretly escorted 200 oil tankers out of the SOH. While this is positive news and may have helped temper rising oil prices somewhat, the impact is not substantial enough to prevent a major energy crisis. These 200 tankers transiting the SOH over the past 100 days represent only about 2% of the normal volume—roughly 10,000 ships every 100 days—prior to the war. Furthermore, the U.S. has to deploy major naval and air assets to keep the SOH open. This is not sustainable and works to Iran’s advantage in the long run: Iran can disrupt commerce through the strait with relatively little effort, while the U.S. must risk two carrier battle groups simply to move 2% of the normal amount of oil and gas. 2. The Iranian hardliners have been emboldened and have no interest in reaching a deal. For years before the war, there was major tension between the moderates—who were open to dialogue with the U.S.—and the more militant factions of the Iranian government, primarily senior officers in the IRGC. At the outset of the war, we killed the leading moderate figure (moderate by Iranian standards), Supreme Leader Khamenei, along with several of his civilian counterparts like Ali Larijani. We’ve used the cover of peace talks as a ruse to launch attacks on Iran on two separate occasions. All of this bolstered the hardliners’ standpoint that we cannot be trusted in negotiations and that Iran had no choice but to fight. 3. Israel. Despite reports of tension between Bibi and Trump, the Israelis remain the spoiler of any progress towards a deal and prove it every time there are serious talks of peace. President Trump has made public statements urging Israel to show restraint, but has been ignored and, in many cases, outright defied. The Israelis consider any peace deal with Iran to be unacceptable and a major threat to their nation. Until President Trump takes away some U.S. military support from Israel, they will continue to sabotage any chance of a lasting peace.

Look at what Candace has done …