Kirill

921 posts

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Kirill

Kirill

@BetQuant

Sharing Value & Narratives | Research | Crypto | AI Probability & Opinion | #Crypto https://t.co/HEOFelYRRa

Присоединился Nisan 2015
306 Подписки84 Подписчики
Breezy 4L
Breezy 4L@breezyjpg·
How to make +10,000% on Polymarket in 7 mins? > be an UFC fan > open your laptop or phone at 1:10 AM > have at least $1 in your Polymarket account > set up your username as "west1717" > find the "Tybura vs Fortune" market > listen to them announce the wrong winner > buy "Fortune to win" shares (at 1¢ each) > watch as the fighters re-enter the octagon > get ~100x on your position ps. Welcome to the era of the Polymarket sharp
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rb (prediction arc)@rb_tweets

someone turned $676 into $67,574 on Polymarket because the UFC announced the WRONG winner! Bruce Buffer read Tybura as the winner, it bonded to 99c. Seconds later the UFC called Fortune back into the octagon, apologized, and corrected it — Fortune won by unanimous decision. this trader spotted the inefficiency, bought 67,608 shares at 1c and made the fastest 100x trade

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Kirill@BetQuant·
@ToolySOL It looks like your strategy isn't working.
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Tooly@ToolySOL·
Day 10 $1K to $100K Challenge:
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Kirill@BetQuant·
@rb_tweets Even with regular bookmakers, this strategy only brings losses in the long run.
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Bumblebee
Bumblebee@0xBumblebee·
Polymarket account, $300 and a dream yesterday I was broke and my PnL was -$6300 but I deposited $300 on Polymarket and that changed everything few hours after the deposit I ended up with $800 on my account one bet, all-in, $800 at 33c and I won ~$2600 step by step I ended my session with ~$11,000 on my account PnL reverted from -$6300 to $4700 in a blink of an eye finally can withdraw something and close all my debts do you have any excuses why you are still not using Polymarket?
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Kirill@BetQuant·
@primenic_eth You need to be confident in your strategy, there might still be drawdowns.
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PrimeNic
PrimeNic@primenic_eth·
My Polymarket Strategy Revealed > start with $163 Capital (never inject anything else) > make disciplined NBA picks > once I reach $500 profits, I cash it for the month My target is to make $500 profit every month with the initial investment. Helps a LOT in the monthly budget with lil baby coming! Just cashed out the monthly gains, now running it back with $185 for the month of April.
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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
WHITEWHALE drops 70% after founder announces exit from crypto The sharp decline in $WHITEWHALE comes after its creator — well-known trader WhiteWhale — announced he is leaving the crypto industry. In his statement, he cited: • personal life challenges • mental health struggles • loss of belief in the crypto space Before stepping away, he: • Locked 50% of the total supply • Transferred project accounts to a trusted friend • Said he no longer wants to be involved in the project’s future He also made strong comments about the current memecoin landscape, calling PumpFun “a cancer of the industry” and warning that many participants were sold a dream closer to lottery odds than real investing. Following the announcement, $WHITEWHALE dropped ~70%, showing how dependent many memecoins still are on founder narrative and community trust. Another reminder: In memecoins, founder sentiment often matters more than fundamentals.
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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
SpaceX (@SpaceX ) IPO may be closer than ever Multiple reports from Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, and The Information suggest that SpaceX is preparing to file for an IPO within days. Here’s what we know so far: • Filing timeline: SpaceX may submit its S-1 late March or early April • Potential raise: $75B+, which would make it the largest IPO in history (Aramco raised ~$29B in 2019) • Expected listing: June 2026, if the timeline holds • Valuation targets: $1T–$1.75T, potentially making SpaceX one of the most valuable public companies One of the most unusual details: Elon Musk (@elonmusk ) is reportedly considering allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors — far above the typical 5–10%. The idea is to: • leverage retail demand (Tesla-style) • stabilize price post-IPO • reduce volatility after listing There’s also discussion around a dual-class structure, allowing Musk to retain strong control — similar to Tesla. Why now? SpaceX needs massive capital for: • Starlink global expansion • Starship development • Orbital AI data centers (one of Musk’s long-term bets) Markets already reacted: • Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile moved higher • Tesla also saw a modest uptick Even without official confirmation, this could become one of the biggest IPO events of the decade — and potentially a major catalyst for the entire space and AI infrastructure sector. 🚀
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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
Something interesting is happening inside the Mad Lads / Backpack community — and it’s not just about price. A large Mad Lads holder shared a long statement explaining how many early supporters weren’t just “whales”, but actually core contributors: • onboarding users to Backpack Wallet • supporting holders to avoid liquidations • hosting team members and building local communities • promoting the ecosystem long before the exchange existed And now many of those early supporters feel ignored or pushed aside. The key issue isn’t floor price — it’s trust. New buyers believe they can rebuild the community after the price dropped. But communities aren’t built on cheap entries — they’re built on time, shared values, and trust. Another worrying signal: Some long-time holders who spoke openly about concerns were reportedly banned from community groups, which only deepens the divide. The irony is that both Mad Lads and Backpack are part of the same ecosystem, yet parts of the community feel the NFT brand was held back — intentionally or not. This is an important moment. Because strong crypto projects don’t just win with tech — they win with communities that stick around during hard times. And once that trust starts to break, rebuilding it becomes much harder than rebuilding price.
Elika@KgnCnKhrmn

x.com/i/article/2037…

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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
@anglio I found the exchange convenient to use and I'm surprised it's rated so low now.
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Anglio
Anglio@anglio·
Told you this will happen $BP and the team lost money to every single supporter and farmer There is no bullish case for this shit project anymore When you lose everyone money they will run from you This exchange is not even worth 50m mcap
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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
@itslirrato All bets on a 99% probability will eventually lead to this. The price of error is too high.
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Lirratø
Lirratø@itslirrato·
This is the most painful mistake I’ve ever seen > Risk: $103,395 > Target: +$1,032 > Result: -$103,064 One trade just erased nearly 50% of his profit from the last 5 months He once put up $7,674,635 for a $16,512 gain Is it ever worth it?
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Kirill@BetQuant·
@OzzyChina Was there a token freeze? Why didn't you sell them sooner?
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OzzyChina
OzzyChina@OzzyChina·
$5K to $64 only with crypto. I claimed my Hana, which was worth around $5K at TGE, but today I got $64, lmao. Web3 did
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Jack.poor 🇦🇲
Jack.poor 🇦🇲@RealJackPoor·
If you've been praying for my downfall, stop it's already worked. I'm cooked.
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Kirill@BetQuant·
@appledog_xyz @betmoardotfun It is possible to earn money on spreads or while working on grants to attract an audience. Polymarket itself also had no commissions until recently.
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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
Betmoar (@betmoardotfun ) — the #1 trading terminal for Polymarket — may be getting closer to a token For those unfamiliar, Betmoar (betmoar.fun) isn’t a separate prediction market — it’s a professional trading terminal built on top of Polymarket. Users connect their existing wallets, and funds remain fully non-custodial on Polymarket smart contracts. Betmoar simply provides a faster, more advanced interface for serious traders. Key features: • Zero platform fees — traders keep 100% of profits • Whale tracking — monitor large wallets and positioning • UMA intelligence — track disputes, votes, and resolution risks • News terminal — real-time X & Truth Social feeds linked to markets • Advanced analytics — PnL tracking, position delta, top holders • Discord bot — integrated trading across 100+ communities (including Polymarket’s official server) Adoption is already significant: • $2B+ trading volume through Betmoar • 50,000+ users • #1 spot on Polymarket Builders Leaderboard • Tens of millions in user profits processed In many ways, Betmoar has become the TradingView/Bloomberg Terminal of prediction markets. Interestingly, the team has long stated “No token yet”, promising any launch would be officially announced via → x.com/betmoardotfun But now, with prediction markets appearing around a potential token, the community is starting to price in a possible launch — something that often happens before major ecosystem builder TGE announcements. If that happens, Betmoar could become one of the most anticipated builder tokens in the Polymarket ecosystem.
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Kirill@BetQuant·
@Bambardini In case of fast events, everyone takes on market and does not place a bet in the order book, as it seems to me
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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
Polymarket may already be on track for ~$300M in annual revenue Everyone is talking about the new fees on Polymarket, but the more interesting question is: how much money does this actually generate? According to estimates from Castle Labs: • 30-day trading volume: ~$9.55B • Estimated monthly revenue: ~$25M • Annualized revenue: ~$300M And here’s where the revenue is coming from: • Crypto markets: $2.72B volume → ~$11.7M (~45% of revenue) • Sports markets: $3.99B → ~$6.7M (~25%) • Politics: $2.37B → ~$5.3M (~20%) How the fees work: • Up to ~1.8% total fee (split 50/50 depending on outcome) • Fees decrease the closer the probability is to 0 or 1 • Only takers (market orders) pay fees — limit orders remain free If these numbers hold, Polymarket could be generating ~$300M per year. Against rumored multi-billion valuations, that’s not unreasonable by U.S. tech market standards. There’s also a bigger narrative forming. For years, large institutional players wanted exposure to gambling-like markets, but couldn’t due to regulatory or mandate constraints. Prediction markets may be solving that — offering a “legitimized” version of betting wrapped in financial infrastructure. And if that thesis plays out, capital may keep flowing in — even at aggressive valuations.
Castle Labs 🏰@castle_labs

. @Polymarket will turn on fees for most market categories starting March 30th. The fee structure varies and is downward-parabolic, depending on the market state and the per-share price. So users pay the most when shares are priced at $0.5 and pay progressively less at the edges. To estimate annualised revenue, we sampled the last 30 days of volume across different categories and applied the new fee structure. Since the fee structure varies, we take 30% of the peak rate as an average rate for the analysis. In the last 30 days, Polymarket did $9.55b in trading volume, and with the same metrics, we estimate revenue of about $25m, which would be $300m annualised at current volume levels. At a $20b valuation, it would be a 67x multiple; at $9b (ICE investment), a 30x multiple. On the other hand, @Kalshi is running at an annualised revenue of $1.5b (reported by Bloomberg), implying a revenue multiple of 15x based on their recent round at a valuation of $22b. Additionally, the Polymarket numbers are expected to go higher as they launch Polymarket U.S.

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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
$580M oil short and $1.5B S&P 500 long — placed just 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement. Large positions were opened shortly before a major post from Trump on his social platform, raising fresh questions about possible insider activity. The timing is hard to ignore: • $580M short on oil • $1.5B long on S&P 500 • Both opened roughly 15 minutes before the announcement Shortly after, markets moved in the expected direction. This isn’t the first time. Last year, there was already controversy around Trump-related comments on a “strategic reserve” involving Cardano and SOL, where crypto markets rallied 40–80% within hours. But this time, the scale is much larger — not just crypto pumps, but macro trades with potential profits in the $100M–$500M range. Whether it’s coincidence or something else, the pattern is becoming harder to ignore.
Financial Times@FT

FT Exclusive: Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting 'productive' talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling ft.trib.al/5jnFcCt

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Kirill
Kirill@BetQuant·
@loshmi Work hard, earn good money
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Loshmi
Loshmi@loshmi·
My airdrops journey in 2026: Monad $0 Newton $0 Falcon $0 Eclipse $0 Mira $0 Loaded Lion $0 Kinto $0 Huma Finance $0 Loudio $0 Succinct $0 Caldera $0 Wayfinder $0 ElonFi $0 Hemi $0 OpenEden $0 Initia $0 Ethena $0 Kaito $0 Linea $0 Bera $0 Reservoir $0 Giza $0 A noma $0 Aster $0 0g $0 Goat network $0 Zerobase $0 Lombard $0 Sophon $0 DefiApp $0 Multipli $0 Binance alpha $0 Avantis $0 Infinit $0 Boop $0 Elixir $0 Elympics $0 CoralApp $0 Term Finance $0 Portal $0 Skate $0 Lanca $0 Parcl $0 Fuel $0 Story $0 Skate $0 Layer 3 $0 Space & time $0 Hyperlane $0 Bsx $0 Derive $0 Fantasytop $0 Layer 3 quests $0 StakeStone $0 Doodle $0 Particle $0 Whatthefreg $0 Newton $0 Towns $0 Satlayer $0 Sapien $0 Overtake $0 Katana $0 Velvet $0 Optimism $0 Trusta $0 Chainbase $0 Openledger $0 Cookie $0 Bless $0 Avax $0 Overtake $0 Soso $0 Pengu $0 Sahara $0 Defai $0 Pain $0 Hana $0 Union $0 MindoAI $0 Reservoir $0 Plume $0 Huma $0 Resolv $0 Newton $0 Yieldbasis $0 Sonic $0 Portal $0 Vooi $0 Theoriq $0 Kite AI $0 Talus $0 Stable $0 Almanak $0 MMT $0 Lighter $0 Gensyn $0 Cysic $0 Backpack: $0 Total: $0
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