CME Slayer

This isn’t just an oil shock. It’s a refined products breakdown.🛢 Middle East exports collapsed 63% in March, down 4.8mb/d to roughly 2.8mb/d. Nearly 40% of what’s left is being rerouted through the Red Sea instead of Hormuz. That’s not adjustment, that’s disruption. The hit isn’t even across the board. Jet fuel is down 85%, which is why aviation feels it first. LPG and naphtha dropped by about 1mb/d, hitting petrochemicals next. Diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil are all down 60 to 70%, which is where the real economic pressure builds. This is the part people miss. You can’t fix refining capacity or logistics overnight. Once products tighten, the impact spreads across everything. This isn’t a temporary squeeze. It’s the kind of dislocation that forces a repricing of energy.

Iran has now imposed a toll of roughly one dollar per barrel on tankers passing through the chokepoint. Large vessels carry two to three million barrels each, so one ship can hand over two to three million dollars just for "safe passage." The March collapse in refined product exports shows the disruption is already slamming global markets. A tough ground operation on heavily fortified Qeshm Island could trigger even worse energy shortages hitting Europe, Japan, Australia and beyond. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just removed the Army Chief of Staff and two other top generals in the middle of this war. Is the US heading for a high-risk ground assault on that underground missile city or applying maximum pressure to force the strait back open? Heres a video that shows the Strait Of Hormuz Open vs Closed. Only select ships are allowed to pass. 👇

Trump: "The war has been won. We can fly over Teheran, and they can't do a thing about it."

Private sector jobs grew nearly THREE TIMES economists' expectations! 📈