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To whom it may concern,
You can also follow me at jonnyc.bsky.social
Best wishes,
JC 🚀
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JC 🚀
2.4K posts
JC 🚀
@FPL_Spaceman
Fantasy football nerd | Co-founder @SolioAnalytics | @TFFootball Champion 24/25
Присоединился Ağustos 2021
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Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW31
Minutes updated after press conferences - these are the current top projected players & an example FH team ahead of today's deadline 👇
Projections will auto-update until deadline
👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com
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JC 🚀 ретвитнул
Here are #FPL Game Week 31's predicted line ups and a huge thanks to all of our predictors and
@FPL_Spaceman
We could really do with a few more Man City & Brighton predictors - dm if interested.
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@Ronit059 @lateriser12 If you're locking in FH34 with no WC then these would likely be the best teams to target, sorted by attack/defence.
Something like Rice to Gordon might make most sense for you? Unless you'd rather double up on NEW defence with eg Timber to Hall
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@lateriser12 @FPL_Spaceman Hey man I'm in a bit of a jam. Already used wc, currently on fh34(bgw), which team to target to make most out of BB33, Timber out or Rice out? want 3 arsenal for later. would really appreciate some advice. Seems like everyone's just talking about wc strategies so no help😬
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Was chatting with the genius that is @FPL_Spaceman and taking advice for my team.
He then does this. What a guy!
JC 🚀@FPL_Spaceman
Had a couple requests for help with people's teams this week, so thought I'd walk through a demo using @lateriser12's team to talk about how I've been using @SolioAnalytics stochastic optimizer to stay flexible for non-WC32 lines. Hope it's useful!
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Had a couple requests for help with people's teams this week, so thought I'd walk through a demo using @lateriser12's team to talk about how I've been using @SolioAnalytics stochastic optimizer to stay flexible for non-WC32 lines. Hope it's useful!
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When he says “my simulations from last night” he means intense, drug-induced dreams btw. Just a note of caution
JC 🚀@FPL_Spaceman
Projected number of doubles and blanks in each gameweek based on my simulations from last night
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@StingFPL @MarkkuOjala_ 3 doubles is pretty likely yes, it's just the small chances of things like ARS / CHE not winning in FA cup, or CHE-BHA / BUR-MCI going back into GW34 if our broadcast preference assumptions are wrong etc, all start to add up. It may be too conservative and a small underestimate
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@FPL_Spaceman @MarkkuOjala_ Surprised the average number of doubles is closer to 2 than 3 when ARS, CHE have easy QF matches. Also if MCI win, Sky will want their game to move to GW33 given the title race, while if LIV win, they would double with CRY. That implies 3 doubles
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@talha_nadeem_90 Yes, so eg WHU-EVE moving from GW34 weekend to GW34 midweek wouldn't be counted here
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@FPL_Spaceman To confirm, all blanks stated (in 34 and 37) are only blanks and do not include postponements in the same GW also?
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@PhilFox44956641 @FPL_McFred Ohh I see what you mean - like this?
0 DGWs = ~3.2%
1 DGWs = ~18.4%
2 DGWs = ~46.2%
3 DGWs = ~30.6%
4 DGWs = ~1.6%
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@FPL_Spaceman @FPL_McFred Looks good as a summary.
Isn't actually what I was thinking, I was more simply the probability of there being x number of DGWs /blanks over the remainder of the season.
Perhaps I'm simplifying too much, but I have all my chips left so for me it's confirming 2 DGWs expected.
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@fm_kari If either team is knocked out in the QFs of FA cup or UEL then we know it won't be forced into GW36. There is a small chance they move the FA cup final clashes into GW36 anyway, but I think we expect them to go back into GW37 midweek if it is available like they did last season.
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@FPL__Enzo A lot of them are pretty similar to be fair, I still think you can plan around sets of permutations if you wanted
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Top permutation is a mere 19%… don’t waste your time making WC drafts and wait for info
JC 🚀@FPL_Spaceman
Since Crystal Palace beat AEK Larnaca tonight, then MCI-CRY fitting back into GW31 (or into GW32 to form a double) is now off the table. These are my top projected permutations of rearranged fixtures from simulations of the relevant cup competitions ⬇️
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@FPL_Spaceman @FPL_McFred Can you express this as your expected probabilities of a certain number of DGWs (ignore who is playing)?
I can already see where that is likely to land, but think if you expressed graphically it would be powerful.
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@Het__Vora @FPLFocal They may choose to bring both postponements into the same midweek (they wouldn't have to), which is why the ARS-BUR game in GW36 appears in one of the top permutations along with it.
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@Het__Vora @FPLFocal They probably would go into the midweek after if it was free yes, as that's what they did last season with those postponements.
AVL-LIV could be blocked from that by the UEL final if AVL make it though, so would be forced into GW36.
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@nakkidoge @FPLFocal They could also get a double in GW36 if MCI made the FA cup final, causing a clash with BOU-MCI on GW37 weekend, but we think that is more likely to just got back into GW37 in the midweek after the FA cup final, as that's what they did with those postponements last season.
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@nakkidoge @FPLFocal If Leeds beat West Ham in the FA cup, then BOU-LEE will be postponed from the weekend in GW34. It could go into GW33 midweek, but since neither team is in Europe it's quite flexible, so might be more likely to just go back into GW34 in that midweek.
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@FPL_Jurgen @talha_nadeem_90 @yassine1074454 Arguably increases I think, as LIV-CRY would likely move from GW34 to GW33, but then MCI-CRY cant fit in GW33 and likely wouldn’t fit in GW34 with Palace still in Europe.
Also keeps the option of a forced DGW36 for AVL-LIV.
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@talha_nadeem_90 @yassine1074454 If Liverpool win does the change of getting a double outside of GW33 decrease?
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While City v Palace double for GW33 is less likely than 35-37, City or Palace are still likely to double in GW33 😋
Though the main positive from tonight is that those holding the TC chip are still likely to get another DGW outside of 33 🥳
Ben Crellin@BenCrellin
Crystal Palace have beaten AEK Larnaca, so we can finally say that Palace and Man City will definitely Blank in Gameweek 31 (along with Arsenal and Wolves) The next Double Gameweek will be Gameweek 33, but MCI vs CRY is more likely to move to GW 35-37 than GW33.
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@FPLPapa @SolioAnalytics I think they probably do double in GW33 with BUR-MCI (or maybe MCI-CRY) if they beat Liverpool in the FA cup.
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@FPL_Spaceman @SolioAnalytics You don’t think city double in 33 if they beat Liverpool?
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