Jeff (Prediction Arc)
3.6K posts

Jeff (Prediction Arc)
@GDegen
AI Marketing & Growth. Strategy Advisor. Polymarket Believer. Opinions are my own. building @predictdogfun






正和我昨天的估算一样,昨晚当BTC反弹至$76,000时,BRS回到零了。 虽然现在又离开了一些(在5左右),但这也印证了一点,即目前只要BTC价格高于$76,000,BRS就一定会回到0。 👉 BRS=0,意味着2点: 1、在牛转熊时,都是阶段性的顶部区间。 2、在熊转牛时,是一段趋势行情的起点。 比如在1月14日BTC反弹至$97,000时BRS回到0,我们判断当时应该是牛转熊时期,因此这是反弹的高点区。 所以,问题就变得简单了,你只需要判断现在是不是已经处于“熊转牛”阶段,如果是,那么接下来会一段强势的趋势行情。 如果不是,那么$76,000或以上就是本轮反弹的高点。越往上,压力越大,回撤需求也越大。 ---------------------------------- 🚩 以上是数据分析和解释,下面是我个人观点(仅供参考): 我个人认为以目前的数据综合来看是后者的概率更大,即已经进入阶段性的高点区。 据我观察,本轮反弹除了受宏观事件影响外,和期货负费率、期权Gamma挤压有密切关系。而现货需求却没有同步上升。 在反弹过程中,有2个重要的数据并没有明显变化: 1、反弹的过程中,动量买家(Momentum Buyers)并没有积极跟进,说明整体情绪还是偏谨慎,缺乏持续的基础。 2、新增有效地址数(过去30天内,首次与BTC交互且余额不为零的地址)也没有明显上升的趋势。 还有一个潜在的变化条件:如果BTC可以向上突破8.1w,且回踩不跌破,那么我就会认为是前者(趋势反转)的概率更大。 8.1w是短期持有者平均成本,短期筹码接近盈亏平衡时会引发抛售。价格突破意味着信心的重建,所以思路就要改变了。至少目前我主观上认为这是小概率。










如果有想尝试Poly跟单的朋友们 建议 跟单模拟 和 跟单绩效统计 这两个工具 如果有能力的话就做 只有好处没有坏处 跟单Bot的话选好一家 这里推荐目前最快的PolyCop t.me/PolyCop_London… 针对这个Bot能设定的条件去模拟 例如 最低跟单价格设定多少以上 PNL会变怎样 用固定金额或百分比去跟单时 胜率会变怎样 诸如此类 最近认真复盘Poly跟单纪录和细节 发现踩的坑远比我想得多啊 也扒了不少地址发现 Poly上还是有不少跟单高手的 一周赚几千刀不在话下 十分佩服🥹


For the past month, I’ve been building two games via Vibe Coding. If you’re following me, you already know I’m a hardcore nerd gamer, so these are true passion projects. First: Voidborne, a DnD-inspired, narrative sci-fi game powered by AI. The twist is that I already have draft lore and stories from 15 years ago. Imagine combining: - Game of Thrones political intrigue - Dune sci-fi setting - Lord of the Mysteries progression system Create your own character, take part in major events, and reshape the world of Voidborne through your choices. Everything is fully AI generated. Current limitation: gameplay is capped at 150 turns. The AI Game Master, the system that generates your options and events, begins to hallucinate as it approaches context limits. This cap is also more viable from a cost standpoint. Second project: Echoes of Aethera (EoA). I love TCGs like Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering, so this is a love letter to them. EoA is set in a parallel universe to Voidborne, but instead of sci fi it leans into fantasy with a lighter tone. On crypto side: both games include optional blockchain infrastructure, but with different purposes and use cases. Neither requires a token to function. Even if a token is launched, it will not be baked into gameplay. That keeps both games focused on gameplay, rather than forcing crypto into the design, which has become the main barrier for many web3 games. I am not sure when I will launch either, but I am happy to share progress here when I hit major milestones.

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