Small Company Sharewatch

For subscribers - the main recommendation in January and the lead NAP - "trading significantly ahead of expectations." Well done guys. Its an 'omazing' performance. scsw.co.uk

#SPI - @spirehealthcare Yesterday's Sky article (see below) certainly sounds encouraging – especially as it appears Spire's NHS problems haven't deterred M&A/buyer interest. To me, it's all going to come down to whether a satisfactory clearing price can be agreed for #SPI’s assets - which I suspect will have be above £2.50 per share. On the recent interview with @harwoodcapital , Christopher Mills reckoned this would be circa 300p. Based on the market value of SPI's freehold property being worth £1.5bn vs NBV £642m. Giving an implied H1'25 market NTAV of £1,152m, or 283p / diluted share (406m). What's more, if Sky's £1.5 billion bid references Enterprise Value, then deducting H1'25 net bank debt of £357m would generate an implied market value of £1,143m. Which divided by the diluted share count of 406m, would in turn deliver a THEORETICAL 281p/share, representing a 57% premium to Friday's close (178p). Separately it also demonstrates how often institutional investors can miss things (not Harwood though). Since trading at 178p, most people simply believed no M&A deal was going to happen. And it still may not, if a satisfactory clearing price cannot be agreed. Interestingly too, some PE firms might use their own infrastructure funds to buy SPI's assets at market value (ie £1.5bn). Hence allowing them to pay a slightly higher price, as they'll be able to charge fees on those monies placed - ie on top of their normal M&A fees. Maybe a win-win for everyone? Disclosure: I own SPI shares news.sky.com/story/buyout-f…