Gobe (@StrateGeee) - Профиль Twitter | Zamantika Mersobahis Locabet

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Gobe@StrateGeee·11 Nis

I mapped the entire 7-layer CPO supply chain, to search the layer most overlooked: 5. Electronic ICs - DSPs, Drivers, TIAs. Credo $CRDO is by no means small; they are the polar opposite to a pre-prevenue pure-play photonics company. They don't need to pick which architecture wins, whether it be copper, microLED, or laser optics — because they supply the brains all three require. 201% YoY revenue growth. 68.6% gross margins. $1.3B cash. Long at $109.50.

Gobe@StrateGeee

x.com/i/article/2042…

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Gobe@StrateGeee·9h

Risks and discounts considered it’s decently valued/cheap depending on how you value the underlying assets, on an individual basis 3X base case this year is maybe based on the wrong basis or extremely optimistic. It can easily seem like SK Hynix with a 50% discount — especially if you werent exposed to Korea individually prior to IBKR.

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Babyfolio@babyfolio·1d

I wrote an article on why I think SK Square $402340 will 3x this year(base case) If you're bored on this Saturday/Sunday and like to make money, consider giving it a read 👇

Babyfolio@babyfolio

x.com/i/article/2050…

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Gobe@StrateGeee·1d

@Polymarket They have been making semiconductors components for years blud

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Polymarket@Polymarket·1d

JUST IN: Japanese toilet maker TOTO announces pivot into AI chip components, stock soars +18%.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·1d

@Matans8442 @citrini @rennyzucker You’re too zoomed in.

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Matan Sheskin@Matans8442·1d

@StrateGeee @citrini @rennyzucker The required Helium has a shelf-life of 35-48 days. If you think Helium production and Hormuz are both ready by June, I have a bridge to sell you. Oh, and I highly recommend you listen to the TSMC earnings call, minute 00:09:17.

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Citrini@citrini·1d

In August 2024, our analyst @rennyzucker wrote this section of our optics piece “Can You Hear Me Now?” on RAN with Nokia at $4. In early 2025, Nokia completed its acquisition of Infinera which strengthened its data center optical footprint and is now resulting in favored vendor status for Nvidia’s AI-RAN push. One must be pretty locked in to talk about this while telecom is in a brutal drawdown, hated by nearly everyone and Nokia has traded sideways for more than a decade. We still think $NOK has more than 100% upside from here.

KawzInvests 🦑@KawzInvests

$NOK up 53% in a single month, tripled off the $4 lows. Are people are starting to realize this isn't the boring phone maker anymore? > Optical Networks running on the 800G ZR coherent pluggables from the Infinera deal, sitting directly in the hyperscaler capex cycle. > AI-RAN turning every cell tower into a distributed inference node, what Jensen calls "Robotic AI Radio." > Nvidia took 2.9% at $6.01 in October. Stock has doubled from there. Still only $67B market cap on a business guiding ~50% operating profit growth into 2028. $NOK $NVDA $CIEN

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Gobe@StrateGeee·1d

@Matans8442 @citrini @rennyzucker You don’t understand how insignificant the price of helium is in BOM.

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Matan Sheskin@Matans8442·1d

@citrini @rennyzucker When are you going to have the balls to write about the incoming Helium crisis? All these beautiful chips you are talking about cannot and will not be made.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·2d

@aleabitoreddit Honestly, locals were not waiting for CPO they did not know what they were holding and most retails held it from 2021

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·2d

$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.

aphex@aphexinvests

@StormDirac agree with @aleabitoreddit who calls it a wealth transfer, European media shook out local Swedish holders, now US/Western retail + incoming institutions own more of the float

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Gobe@StrateGeee·2d

Thank you $TEAM.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·2d

$NBIS earnings in T-12 days.

M. V. Cunha@mvcinvesting

🚨 $NBIS will report its Q1 2026 results on May 13, before the market open.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·2d

@vikramskr Don’t believe it has bottomed out, or that Chinese handsets will in Q3 as announced.

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Vikram Sekar@vikramskr·2d

PSA: Last time $QCOM had a nice bump like this was on the announcement of AI200/250. Public inference benchmarks are still an unknown. Seems like there is a lot of read through again because of a still unknown hyperscaler chip. Mobile bottomed out apparently, but memory still ultra unaffordable. Doesn’t add up unless they have CXMT supply now. No concrete stuff i can tell. Still sounds like an AI200 announcement moment.

Wall St Engine@wallstengine

Qualcomm $QCOM announced its new AI200 and AI250 data center accelerators to compete with $NVDA in the AI compute market. The AI200 will start shipping next year, while the AI250 is planned for 2027.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·2d

New Nebius $NBIS acquisition. They acquired Eigen AI with the effort to advance inference optimization in token factory. Nebius Group is laying the foundation for AI: Both tangible and intangible infrastructure.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·2d

@ThematicTrader Why would you only limit the assumed dilution to 20%?

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9 Ventures@ThematicTrader·2d

$SHMD and $LPK $LPKFF have basically the same 2026 revenue guide, $SHMD guiding for 12% EBITDA margins vs. negative margins for $LPKFF. $SHMD has a higher order backlog at 49M Euros vs. LPKF. Schmid likely has SpaceX as a customer. Both names should work and deserve to be higher, but make it make sense how Schmid doesn't work from here. Schmid at $340M MC vs. LPK at $524M, even if you assume 20% dilution on Schmid, it's still cheaper than LPK.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

As a $SMSD.IL preferred share holder I must say, the extra 1 won is appreciated.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

Samsung did quite wel...

Gobe@StrateGeee

Samsung Electronics ($005930.KS / $SMSN / $SMSD) reported Q1 2026 earnings, today, April 30th (fair disclosure). But we're still waiting on the call for more indepth information. Headline: - Revenue: ₩133.87T vs ₩126.29T (FactSet) / ₩131.00T (Sharp) → 🟢 BEAT (+6.0% / +2.2%) - Operating profit: ₩57.23T vs ₩50.85T → 🟢 BEAT (+12.6%) - Net Income: ₩47.23T vs ₩40.59T → 🟢 BEAT (+16.4%) - EPS: not disclosed in preliminary filing (₩6,028 FactSet / ₩6,817 Sharp consensus to watch in full release) The Sharp consensus sitting ~13% above the broad consensus on EPS is the tell — sell-side is still catching up to the memory cycle. The memory super-cycle is the story (Q1 '26E): DRAM ASP: +77.0% QoQ NAND ASP: +67.2% QoQ DRAM bit growth: +1.3% QoQ NAND bit growth: +5.4% QoQ According to estimates, pricing is doing most of the heavy lifting. Exactly the dynamic flagged on $QCOM earnings call — memory supply constraints pressuring [handset] OEMs. - As expected, consumer electronics are taking the largest hit from rising memory prices. Samsung sits on both sides of that trade. Segments (Q1 '26E segment actuals pending in full release): 1. DX - Device Experience (mobile + consumer): ₩51.01T revenue, ₩3.08T EBIT 2. VD/DA - Visual Display & Digital Appliances: ₩14.66T revenue, ₩0.18T EBIT 3. DS - Device Solutions (chips/foundry/memory): ~₩47.6T EBIT — ~93% of total operating profit (implied estimates) For context: Q1 2026 EBIT alone (₩57.23T actual) now exceeds full-year FY2025 EBIT of ₩43.60T by ~31% — a single quarter eclipsed the entire prior year. Cash flow: - CapEx.: ₩18.05T - Cash Flow from Operations: ₩9.23T - FCF: -₩4.97T (front-loaded capex; FCF expected to turn positive in Q2) The setup: 43 analysts | Buy rating (1.15) - Target: ₩288,711 vs current ₩226,000 → +27.7% upside - Forward P/E (FY26E): 6.5x What I'm watching: whether HBM/DDR5 mix commentary supports the consolidated FY26E EBIT of ₩288.6T vs. ₩43.6T in 2025 (a 6.6x jump), and any read-through on memory ASP trajectory beyond Q2. The FactSet curve has DRAM ASP decelerating to approx. +24% QoQ in Q2, +7% in Q3, +3% in Q4 — meaning consensus is that the bulk of the upcycle is already in the Q1 print. Beat or miss matters less than the forward guide on memory pricing into 2H 2026. SK Hynix did not comment on HBM as a share of DRAM, maybe Samsung will shine some light on theirs?

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

Samsung barely up on the print, +1%. Preliminary earnings a few weeks out takes the boom out of earnings.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

Samsung Electronics ($005930.KS / $SMSN / $SMSD) reported Q1 2026 earnings, today, April 30th (fair disclosure). But we're still waiting on the call for more indepth information. Headline: - Revenue: ₩133.87T vs ₩126.29T (FactSet) / ₩131.00T (Sharp) → 🟢 BEAT (+6.0% / +2.2%) - Operating profit: ₩57.23T vs ₩50.85T → 🟢 BEAT (+12.6%) - Net Income: ₩47.23T vs ₩40.59T → 🟢 BEAT (+16.4%) - EPS: not disclosed in preliminary filing (₩6,028 FactSet / ₩6,817 Sharp consensus to watch in full release) The Sharp consensus sitting ~13% above the broad consensus on EPS is the tell — sell-side is still catching up to the memory cycle. The memory super-cycle is the story (Q1 '26E): DRAM ASP: +77.0% QoQ NAND ASP: +67.2% QoQ DRAM bit growth: +1.3% QoQ NAND bit growth: +5.4% QoQ According to estimates, pricing is doing most of the heavy lifting. Exactly the dynamic flagged on $QCOM earnings call — memory supply constraints pressuring [handset] OEMs. - As expected, consumer electronics are taking the largest hit from rising memory prices. Samsung sits on both sides of that trade. Segments (Q1 '26E segment actuals pending in full release): 1. DX - Device Experience (mobile + consumer): ₩51.01T revenue, ₩3.08T EBIT 2. VD/DA - Visual Display & Digital Appliances: ₩14.66T revenue, ₩0.18T EBIT 3. DS - Device Solutions (chips/foundry/memory): ~₩47.6T EBIT — ~93% of total operating profit (implied estimates) For context: Q1 2026 EBIT alone (₩57.23T actual) now exceeds full-year FY2025 EBIT of ₩43.60T by ~31% — a single quarter eclipsed the entire prior year. Cash flow: - CapEx.: ₩18.05T - Cash Flow from Operations: ₩9.23T - FCF: -₩4.97T (front-loaded capex; FCF expected to turn positive in Q2) The setup: 43 analysts | Buy rating (1.15) - Target: ₩288,711 vs current ₩226,000 → +27.7% upside - Forward P/E (FY26E): 6.5x What I'm watching: whether HBM/DDR5 mix commentary supports the consolidated FY26E EBIT of ₩288.6T vs. ₩43.6T in 2025 (a 6.6x jump), and any read-through on memory ASP trajectory beyond Q2. The FactSet curve has DRAM ASP decelerating to approx. +24% QoQ in Q2, +7% in Q3, +3% in Q4 — meaning consensus is that the bulk of the upcycle is already in the Q1 print. Beat or miss matters less than the forward guide on memory pricing into 2H 2026. SK Hynix did not comment on HBM as a share of DRAM, maybe Samsung will shine some light on theirs?

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

@amitisinvesting adding to $META?

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amit@amitisinvesting·3d

well big tech absolutely crushed capex raised across the board cloud growth rates smashed guidance strong for Q2 $META the only red name, doesn’t make much sense on 33% growth even if a small DAU miss because of Iran but $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT crushed show goes on

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

With these CapEx. numbers from Big Tech earnings $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META today, I can't wait for Korea to open. SK Hynix 000660.KS / $HYNSE / $HY9H Samsung $005930.KS / $SMSN / $SMSD ETFs $EWY / $DRAM.

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

@pepemoonboy And I thought I was deep at ~16% allocation, accumulated since 2022.

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Pepe Invests@pepemoonboy·3d

Ya’ll are trippin. Thank you for the discount. 100 shares added to the portfolio. I put my money where my mouth is. $META

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Gobe@StrateGeee·3d

@citrini @jukan05 Let me know if you need someone to be contrarian, qualitatively assesing the future.

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Citrini@citrini·3d

@jukan05 Yes, that’s the consensus and why QCOM was at 12x earnings. But if consensus was accurate about what the future held all the time, the market would be a very boring place. Technological breakthroughs are unpredictable!

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Citrini@citrini·3d

My hottest and most wrong (year to date) take is also probably the only semi stock that Zephyr and I currently disagree on. Since December I’ve been bullish QCOM and he’s been bearish. Of course, he has been hugely right and I have not been - but I really think that’s going to change over the next 12 months. I also like owning it because it’s a pretty popular funding short that sims a potential beneficiary of any breakthrough in edge (or breakthrough in memory efficiency like if someone can get PIM to work). So you could imagine a scenario where any significant progress for on-device inference leads to moderating expectations* for data center growth, the popular longs take a hit and QCOM squeezes hard both on improving outlook and a squeeze. It’s also just cheap af and eventually the circumstances causing its underperformance will abate and people will still buy phones and eventually it’ll have its day. In the meantime, I see it kind of like a positive expected value hedge against a shock to estimates that could end up being too optimistic if just, like, 20% of inference is done on device. (*I really do mean moderating, I don’t think edge AI / on-device inference means we don’t use data centers anymore obviously. We’re not going to use the AI on our mobile phones to design drugs or run complex systems obviously, but I could see some revisions when some of the demand of “hey ChatGPT, ” isn’t running through the cloud)

Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Memory prices will bite Qcom hard

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Gobe

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