Vesalius ретвитнул
Vesalius
28.5K posts

Vesalius
@ValueFocus
BE | Logistics Execut'n Sys | CI | Fairness | Surfing | Dali | Show, don't Tell | Visibility➡️Accountability➡️Control➡️Improvement🔄 Block Influencers & Idiots
Melbourne, Australia Присоединился Ağustos 2009
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Vesalius ретвитнул

Labor, the Coalition and One Nation all just voted against an amendment I put up to call on the Government to get a fair deal on the sale and export of Australian gas by instituting a 25 per cent tax on LNG export revenue, which is estimated to generate $17 billion a year.
They're running a protection racket for the gas industry rather than standing up for Aussies.
*Senators Lambie, Payman and Thorpe were unable to attend the vote for personal reasons.

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Vesalius ретвитнул

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. It is sorted.
Iran has built a three-tier access system for the most important waterway on earth. Tier one: allies transit free. Malaysia cleared seven vessels through diplomacy at zero cost. India negotiated zero-fee passage. Pakistan secured clearance for 20 ships. Iraq transits without charge. These countries proved geopolitical alignment and the IRGC waved them through the Larak corridor without collecting a rial.
Tier two: compliant neutrals pay. At least two tankers, likely Chinese-linked, paid up to two million dollars each in yuan through Kunlun Bank intermediaries. COSCO container ships attempted the corridor, were turned back on first approach when documentation was incomplete, then succeeded days later with revised paperwork. These are the vessels that prove the system works. They submit IMO numbers, ownership chains, cargo manifests, and crew lists to the IRGC’s Hormozgan Command. They receive clearance codes. They are escorted by pilot boats through the five-nautical-mile channel between Qeshm and Larak. They pay in a currency that does not route through SWIFT. Every successful yuan transit is a live proof-of-concept for non-dollar energy settlement.
Tier three: adversaries are denied entirely. The committee plan bans American vessels, Israeli vessels, and vessels from any country participating in sanctions against Iran. These ships do not get vetting. They do not get codes. They do not get escorts. They get the AL SALMI, burning off Dubai, as illustration of what the corridor looks like without permission.
But the toll is not the real cost. War-risk insurance is. Premiums have surged from $40,000 per VLCC transit before the war to $600,000 to $1.2 million today, a 30-fold increase, now running five to ten percent of hull value. A VLCC carrying $50 million in crude oil can absorb a combined $3 million in toll and insurance as a fraction of cargo value. A container ship carrying $5 million in manufactured goods cannot. The insurance premium alone exceeds the profit margin on non-oil cargo. The strait has become an oil-only VIP lane. Crude flows selectively for those who can pay the combined cost. Everything else waits, reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, or does not move at all.
And the US Navy is not inside the strait. The Abraham Lincoln strike group operates from standoff in the Arabian Sea. Three Littoral Combat Ships sit in the Persian Gulf. Marine expeditionary units are positioned for contingency. But zero American warships have transited the strait or escorted commercial traffic since the war began. The Navy told the shipping industry it has “no availability” for Hormuz escorts. The world’s most powerful fleet keeps respectful distance from a waterway controlled by a country whose navy is 92 percent destroyed because the mines, drones, and shore missiles that remain make close-in presence prohibitively risky.
The result is a geopolitical sorting algorithm operating at the molecular level. One hundred and eighty-one vessels transited in all of March. Pre-war traffic was 138 per day. Of those 181, roughly 70 percent were Iranian-affiliated. The remaining 30 percent were vetted allies or yuan-paying neutrals. The 20 percent of global oil that once flowed freely through this strait now flows selectively, conditionally, and in currencies chosen by Tehran.
Iran lost its air force. It lost its navy. It lost two thirds of its production capacity. It retained the only thing that matters: 39 kilometres of coastline on both sides of the narrowest point. The US Navy will not enter. Chinese tankers will. And the sorting algorithm processes another vessel, collects another yuan payment, and demonstrates once more that geography is the one military asset that cannot be degraded by precision strikes.
The strait is not closed. It is under new management.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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@shanaka86 Gee skipper, I remember when it was open for everyone. You know, before the corrupt idiot began carrying out Israel’s work?
And not one of his DEI hires saw it coming, because they’re all morons too.

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Surely it's time for the men in white coats, isn't it ?
RS Archer@archer_rs
Not a parody, not a comedy show item. Donald Trump has designed for his Presidential Library main hall, as its highlight, a 10m tall golden statue of himself.
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Vesalius ретвитнул
Vesalius ретвитнул

Israel’s Ambassador Hillel Newman making shocking hate speech & falsehoods in his NPC address. Accuses journalists of spreading propaganda & denies hundreds journos have been killed in Gaza. Calls Iranians & Palestinians ‘barbarians’, ‘extremists’
Why give him a platform?#auspol

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@donwinslow What's the current number?
A society with a deeply embedded sickness, dating back to the near 80 yr old "Lone ranger atomic bomb ring".
Sick fvcks.

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This is pretty ironic: Goldman Sachs estimates that the US economy will be *twice* more affected (negatively) than the Chinese economy by the oil supply shock.
"The Chinese economy appears better positioned amid the oil supply shock than its global peers [...] Due to the oil shock, our economists have trimmed China's real GDP growth forecast by 20bps compared to 40bps for the US"

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