ahnhell

We still using Twitter? Ya mind if I aura farm real quick

Going to #summerslam alone If any mutuals going, let’s drink!

@NickStillHere The same one he had with Rihanna

Fellas what's the car ride home like if ya girl get called up on stage and this happen?

@BlinkBets Over 2.5 sets?

French Open Swiatek ML 5 units at +105 Ok so the first thing I want to say is - the result does not dictate whether a bet was good or bad. All winning sports bettors understand this. So when I make a bet like this, I have already done my job. I already know long-term profit is guaranteed with bets like this and my results are proof of that. So now let's move onto why this is a value bet. Folks, there is no way Sabalenka should ever be a fav against Swiatek on sea-level clay. I don't care how bad Swiatek has been recently, she should be the fav here. So why is she the underdog? I will explain everything. Alright let's get into some actual analysis. Let me start by saying Swiatek is a better player and has a higher ceiling than Sabalenka, especially on clay. Swiatek has excellent movement on clay and has fantastic defense. She has a crazy amount of top-spin on that forehand and folks although Swiatek has a winning record against Sabalenka anyway, on clay it is hardly competitive. With the heavy top-spin, Swiatek is able to take the ball away from Sabalenlka's strike zone. Sabalenka is a heavy hitter - a seriously powerful player who looks to dominate. It is difficult to hit through Swiatek like this on clay but even more difficult when she is constantly using her top-spin. Honestly, Sabalenka moves fairly well for the absolute unit that she is but obviously that movement does not compare to the movement of Swiatek. Sabalenka is at her best when she is keeping points short and avoiding long rallies - with the defense of Swiatek, that is difficult to achieve. I have been impressed by the improvement in the game of Sabalenka though - she has added variety with dropshots etc but she is still pretty much just a power hitter. Being a power hitter of her quality works extremely well against most of the tour but as I mentioned Swiatek has the movement, the defense and the top-spin to make life difficult for Sabalenka. Let's dig into this head to head a bit more now. A lot of people will bring up Sabalenka having success against Swiatek in Madrid and will point out that it is a clay event. Yes, it is a clay event but it is at altitude. The mechanics of a matchup are completely different at altitude clay vs sea-level clay. If you've been with me for a while then you will already know why but basically at altitude the ball flies through the thinner air much quicker - so it basically helps out the bigger hitters. At proper clay and at sea-level clay? Swiatek dominates. Ok, so why is Swiatek the underdog here? Well first of all remember that I said Swiatek should not be the underdog but why has it got to the point that the she is an underdog against Sabalenka at sea-level clay? Folks, Swiatek has had a terrible year for her incredibly high standards. That's the reason. But that's nowhere near enough depth in terms of analysis so let's dig deeper. Honestly, she started the year fine at the Australian Open playing a lot better than she has done there in recent years. The conditions there do not suit her game at all but she competed well and reached the semi-finals where she lost to Keys who eventually won the tournament. The loss? No issues. The fact she had match point and lost? Extremely unusual. But still, there was nothing to be concerned about her game technically. A loss to Ostapenko followed this - she has never beaten Ostapenko. A bad matchup for her techincally but also mentally now. After this, a couple losses to Andreeva. What was evident in these losses was her lack of composure. Folks, Swiatek has built a career on being extremely reliant mentally and always working her way through matches. The extent to which she lacked composure in these matches was unusual. A shocking loss to Eala and another loss to Ostapenko followed this. At this point, it was evident she was struggling with the mental aspect. Did I think her Tennis had fallen off technically? No, it was clear that it was just her mental game which had regressed. The concerning loss? A beatdown at the hands of Gauff. This was terrible - everything about her game looked awful her including her movement. But honestly we can draw a line through this loss as she was dealing with something personal at the time. The loss to Collins in Rome was not good. At this point, it would take a lot of optimism to think she was going to turn things around in time for the French Open. But what did I think had regressed? Folks, just the mental game - that's it. There is nothing I noticed to suggest she had forgotten how to player Tennis. Aspects like bad movement? Folks that is a result of getting nervous, getting tight etc. Now let's move onto her performances at this event so far. The early matches were never going to tell us anything. It was always going to the be the Rybakina match where we would learn a lot about the current state of her game, the current state of her mental game and her chances to retain her trophy. Well, it started off in disastrous fashion - she lost the first set 6-1 and was immediately broken to start the 2nd. What happened during this time? Ok so first of all, Rybakina played at an extremely high level. But she was helped by Swiatek being very poor. Most people would have watched and thought Swiatek isn't really doing much wrong but just has no answers to this crazy level from Rybakina. Actually no, her movement was terrible. It's like her feet were stuck in the clay. Remember when I said the movement can be poor when someone is nervous or feeling the tension? Exactly. Swiatek made it easy for Rybakina. But, she then turned the match around. Again, most people will look at that and think Rybakina bottled it. Did she make some terrible errors? Yes, but she always does. I honestly don't think Rybakina did too much wrong. Did her level drop off after the first set? Yes but that was to be expected because she played so good the first set - the shot-making was excellent. Folks, the biggest thing is that Swiatek started to move. As I mentioned before, Swiatek has excellent movement and she finally started to move. Another adjustment she made was that she started to return from further back - this worked wonders. These in-game adjustments are what she used to do when she used to be borderline unbeatable. In-game adjustments are what have been missing from her in recent times. The composure and mental strength at the end of the 3rd set were also impressive. What I'm trying to say is that all these recent struggles have been all mental and yet she found the mental strength to battle back at the biggest event. Very good signs and also very good for her confidence. Another thing to note is that Rybakina is a difficult matchup for Swiatek. Sabalenka? No sir. This matchup on clay is entirely in the hands of Swiatek. People see Sabalenka as world no 1 and bet her, people see Sabalenka in better form and bet her...folks there is no way Sabalenka should be the fav. It doesn't matter if Sabalenka ends up winning 6-0 6-0. As I said, the result does not dictate whether a bet was good or bad. Anyone with an understanding of the game technically knows that Swiatek should absolutely be the fav in this matchup in these conditions. I have done the analysis. I have found the value. I have done my job. The rest is up to Swiatek.

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@nelz5150 Fly them titties in my mouth

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@badgyalmelisa You came a long way (pun intended) you used to say how you never could

Oh btw guys I know how to squirt

@nelz5150 🚪

@nelz5150 Who you think

Now that twitters dead I might just become a full time gooner

@SandboxCyro Facts

@LindaaVaderr Bet

The aftermath 😭

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@ProJoeBets Cleveland plays Philly

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