𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

IRAN'S YELLOWCAKE FACTORY IN ARDAKAN BOMBED, NO RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS OUTSIDE COMPLEX -IRANIAN MEDIA

BARKIN: INFLATION PROGRESS 'MAY BE AT RISK OF STALLING'

You know the oil market is in a healthy position when I keep getting questions along the lines of "but what if we just drew every global stock/inventory to zero, how long would that buy us?"

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCERS WARN BUYERS ABOUT POSSIBLE FORCE MAJEURE ON OIL SUPPLIES AS BALTIC PORTS FACE DRONE ATTACKS, SOURCES SAY

A tense phone call between JD Vance and Netanyahu exposed growing friction between Washington and Israel over the war’s assumptions. During the call, Vance directly challenged Netanyahu’s prewar outlook, arguing it had been overly optimistic — particularly on the likelihood of regime change. One U.S. source said: “Bibi really sold it… as being easy, as regime change being a lot likelier than it was,” adding that the vice president was “clear-eyed” about those claims. Source: Axios

The US has fired 850+ Tomahawk missiles in 4 weeks against Iran, raising Pentagon concerns about rapidly depleting stockpiles. Source: WaPo

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. does not view the Strait of Hormuz as a "choke point" for the global economy, per PBS

Korea bans export of Naphtha - a key precursor for plastics and packaging. Korea was our second biggest supplier.

After damage to a major gas facility in Qatar, Airgas Inc. is cutting helium deliveries—some customers may get only half their usual supply and face added fees. Helium is critical for hospital MRI machines and for manufacturing advanced chips like those from NVIDIA Corp.. To manage shortages, suppliers are prioritizing healthcare over other industries, while the global supply chain faces added strain. Source: Bloomberg

Second order effects. Fertilizer plants are closing in India because they lack LNG. India is the world second largest sugar producer.

Energy rationing is going to fuel (forgive the pun) massive revolts. Some countries have already been experiencing large-scale uprisings and the media has just been ignoring and forgetting them. We’re in for something closer to another ‘68 than to Arab Spring

Trump can TACO, burrito and chimichanga, but nothing will open Hormuz unless Iran wants it open. We can’t go home with Hormuz shut and missiles raining down on our friends. The only way out, is through Iran.. As scary as that sounds, I think we’re going to mobilize serious boots on the ground. That takes 6+ months. No one’s portfolio is positioned for half a year of this chaos…

Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, writing in Bari Weiss’s Free Press, argues that the U.S. should seize Kharg Island. He acknowledges the operation would be massive—requiring thousands of troops, sustained air and naval support, and likely costing lives—but still considers the risk worth taking. The burden of that risk would fall on U.S. soldiers landing on the island.