jman

@ConcretumR @HF_Trader a vol of 37 and a drawdown of 60. nice to be on the right side of it recently, but not for the faint of heart

Genuinely impressed by yet another double-digit return in April (+24%) from the Mulvaney program, bringing 2026 year-to-date performance to a staggering +105%. At this point, the track record Mulvaney Capital Management Limited is putting together is entering truly exceptional territory. Chapeau to Paul Mulvaney!! We recently published a deep dive attempting to reverse-engineer parts of the strategy, and one conclusion became immediately clear: while the broad logic can be approximated surprisingly well, replicating the magnitude of the returns achieved over the last few years is an entirely different challenge. As discussed in our article, participating in those massive upside moves requires both discipline and a non-trivial tolerance for severe drawdowns (>60%), which, with high probability, will not be absent in the years ahead. That is probably the hardest aspect for speculators to accept. You can read the full piece on our Substack page, link in the first comment below. Over the weekend we will also share additional insights together with a special gift for followers: a backtesting tool inspired by some of the concepts discussed in the article. Make sure to follow our Substack if you are interested in systematic trading, CTAs, trend-following, and quantitative research. Data Source: @iasgcta #CTA #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #QuantFinance #TradingResearch #Mulvaney #Volatility #AlternativeInvestments

@TheCompoundNews @awealthofcs skeptical yes. whether that means bearish or not i think depends on the situation

"To be a hedge fund manager, you almost have to be bearish by nature. It’s a personality thing." 🐻 - @awealthofcs awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/why-ar…

One of the cool things about owning puts is that as the market moves against you, you lose less and less money every day.

@z @ADHD_Capital and sadly (‘cause i think elon is a tool), they’ll probably rent it at a huge profit

congrats to anthropic for defeating grok in the market and feasting upon the compute of their fallen enemy

@LauraLoomer you seem nice.

Because that lesbian commie bitch was a bitch.

@growing_daniel i’m guessing it’s approximately half cash, half stock?

inside you there are two wolves. one is cash and one is stock

wen crash?

@breadcrumbsre 10 hours maybe

Who is buying memory stocks thinking this is a good stock to hold for the next 10 years? My guess is approximately 0% investors

Walking into Chipotle for lunch and just saying “half cash, half stock”

@ReesePolitics it’s a hit job to ask basic deal questions? if the answer is as simple as “well we’d have to dilute the massive shit out of current shareholders and really it’s just me trying to get EBAY to buy us and let me run it” then say so. why bother going on air in the first place?

That was one of the greatest displays of legacy news hit job media (CNBC) vs. new age retail pioneers (Ryan Cohen and $GME) where the old guard is so desperately trying to cling to what's left of their crumbling establishment. Cohen's indifference to Sorkin's childish repetitive questioning was an absolute mog.

@_Unknown_D_ they’re definitely high, but a nice interaction nonetheless

Whilst I was shopping in m&s three teens randomly came up to me and asked me if they should opt for carrot or red velvet cake, after being momentarily caught off guard, I suggested they go for the superior option, red velvet cake. I also offered to pay for the cake because they seemed like good kids. I asked them ‘why are you getting a cake, is it one of your birthdays?’ and they responded ‘no, we’re just celebrating life’ 😂 what a wholesome interaction.

@Marlin_Capital lotta returns left for the nimble

The $NDX is tracking the late 90s Dot Com Bubble almost perfectly. If history rhymes, we are now entering the Blowoff Top stage of the bubble. $QQQ $SPX $NVDA

The $GME proposed acquisition of $EBAY is even dumber than it sounds, which is why he refused to answer @andrewrsorkin's basic questions this am. To start, the ACTUAL proposal is not GME acquiring EBAY: GME is the seller, not the buyer. Ryan Cohen is asking eBay to acquire GME, fire eBay's CEO, and let Ryan run the business. Onto the dumbness of the proposal details: The idea is 50% cash / 50% stock for roughly $56 billion of consideration to eBay. Pundits note GME's ~$11.1B market cap and ~$9B of existing cash. BUT THAT DOUBLE-COUNTS. Of GME's ~$11.1B market cap, ~$9B IS THE CASH. Or 81% of the market cap. If I have a company worth $110 with $90 of net cash, it's not worth $180: the cash is worth $90, and the company ex-cash is worth $20 = $110. As shown below, if GME pays eBay the ~$9B in existing cash, the remaining market cap (from eBay's perspective) is ~$2.1B. GME shares are worth ~$5/share ex cash. To issue $28 billion of GME shares, it has to issue ~5.6B of new shares to eBay (vs 590B FD GME shares today), giving eBay 90%+ of the post-deal shares (+ $28 billion of cash to eBay owners). To be clear, GME is proposing that eBay acquire GME, with GME owning 10% of the CombinedCo. In 2026, eBay is expected to generate $2.8B of free cash flow vs $500 mm by GameStop (15% of combinedco). eBay revenue is expected to GROW 9% in 2026 while GME's is expected to shrink 1% (and has shrunk >40% in 5 years). So eBay brings 85% of the cash flow and is growing, and gets 90% of a newco that is dragged down by GameStop's declining revenue. To compensate for owning a lower quality CombinedCo, it levers up and pays legacy eBay $62/share in cash. However, that cash is financed by the quality of eBay's business, not GameStop. eBay doesn't need GameStop to recap its existing business - it could do so and continue to own 100% of the better business. Ultimately, this is GME attempting to swap into a better business by selling itself to eBay, not vice versa. Everyone knows this deal won't happen, Ryan Cohen included.

@yankeedraft 7. extra room, and he seems like a guy that would be chill.

You’re on a 10-hour flight. Which seat are you choosing and why?

@sporadica he isn’t operating in the timeframe you and I are, and has the patience to sit out an overvalued market and wait for the fattest of pitches. whether it’s smart or not isn’t decided yet.

can someone explain to me how this is somehow a smart move by Buffett, because frankly it seems like a pretty big failure on the part of Berkshire to be sitting on cash and T-bills while inflation skyrockets and the market keeps on absolutely pumping

@SenWarren bullshit. the overly aggressive FTC led by Lina Khan, and fully supported by you, aggressively sought to block just about any merger. you managed to bankrupt both spirit and irobot as a result.

Spiking fuel prices from Trump’s war was the nail in the coffin for twice-bankrupted Spirit airline. FWIW, JetBlue merger failed because a judge, appointed by Ronald Reagan, said the deal was illegal. Republicans are desperate to shift blame from higher costs hitting families.

@k3ithmccullough he saves the FNMA pumps for quarter end…

The year is 2016: Ackman is pushing Howard Hughes The year is 2026: Ackman is pushing Howard Hughes The year is 2036: Ackman is pushing Howard Hughes

Miran is getting exposed more and more with every Fed decision as the political hack he always has been.

@aldatweets i have a crazy idea. don’t buy the things that you think aren’t worth it.

There’s a lot of big thingd I want from a big green state. But the small thing I want is banning coffee shops from charging extra for plant milk.