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It is now almost 80% odds that Dems win the House.
Absolutely beautiful!
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
85.9K posts
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
@adamscochran
professor, policy consultant, independent journalist and father. Trying to make the world suck less. Follow for the latest in politics, economics and law.
เข้าร่วม Şubat 2010
1.8K กำลังติดตาม296.9K ผู้ติดตาม
@aeberman12 I’m not sure how you read that thread and think he is anything but a military moron.
None of these assaults or locations are good ideas.
They are all disastrous.
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Why can’t otherwise intelligent people accept that Trump is a military moron @adamscochran?
He’s lost the war. There is no Plan B.
He just learned how catastrophic the war is for the global economy.
$3 trillion in macro losses if everyone makes nice tomorrow.
REALITY BITES
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran
11/11 It is one of the only outcomes that can reconcile, the strange behavior we’ve seen. Where Trump was willing to agree to almost anything, and has spent the entire week backtracking. It was just a ploy for time.
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Yea it does seem like ships *are* currently paying though and the IRGC does seem to have a decent process for making sure passage is in concert with them.
But they don’t even seem to have a preference for payment, it’s just more of a “what do you have ready that we can make work” and because they have access to foreign desks, they’ll take that too.
Like they are buying a shit ton of munitions and MREs and other supplies from Russia and China right now, so I have no doubt that they can manage to find use for currencies that can be laundered though regional desks there.
When I did the investigation into how Russia was paying Wagner, it was all in Binance p2p related desks and Russian OTC markets that went Russia ->Nigeria->BTC/Binance->European desk->Wagner in Donbas and the flow was massive.
People don’t realize that outside of the West p2p currency exchange sites do tremendous volumes offbook. Like there is a Russian shipping company that operates in former USSR states, that owns like a dozen illegal regional desks, and they probably do more daily trade volume than Kraken, all in just regional currency exchange.
It’s such big business, that there are directory sites that list all the sketchy OTC desks as a price aggregator, and many of those directory sites are worth tens of millions of dollars, all without ever touching funds
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That's very helpful thanks. I think you & I might have done the most sleuthing about this than anyone atm (seems like you beat me more though, I didn't talk to any Omani source haha).
Like you said, I get the feeling it's much too early for it to be a formalized process & at large scale when/if this "toll booth" formalizes in some way. I would imagine there'd be Iranian CEXes/businesses or other service providers to participate in the Iranian side of it. But still goes to be seen because it'd be very hard to use stablecoins with blacklists for such an extensive operation unless it was formally allowed/sanction-exempted.
Even a lot of the USDT that the Central Bank of Iran allegedly held/used over the past year has been identified/blacklisted. It's one thing for Iran, Russia, & China to do shadow trading & avoid sanctions between each other but it's another thing to handle payments from almost all major countries' shipping lines/flagged carriers discretely.
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Genuinely asking, is there any formal confirmation from Iranian officials about which cryptocurrency they’re accepting or any ships that have confirmed being offered passage for crypto? AFAIK all mentions of USDT USD1 & BTC have zero sources/proof.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
IRAN DEMANDS CRYPTO PAYMENTS FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRANSIT IRAN IS CHARGING A TOLL OF ~$1 PER BARREL ON OIL TANKERS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT PAYMENTS ARE BEING SOUGHT IN CRYPTOCURRENCY TO BYPASS SANCTIONS, AVOID TRACEABILITY, AND PREVENT ASSET SEIZURE
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
Oh.
Donald Trump nominated one of his attorneys in his hush money criminal trial, Matthew Schwartz, to the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit of New York as a judge?
🙄
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
🇺🇸BREAKING | U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal that additional attack aircraft (presumably A-10 Thunderbolt IIs) have recently landed in the Middle East, within the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.
🪖 In the coming days, up to 2,000 soldiers from the Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division, as well as thousands of sailors and Marines, are expected to arrive.
🔹 The strike carrier group of the USS George H.W. Bush and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (from the USS BOXER assault landing ship) are again heading toward the region; their arrival will likely take more than a week.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
IRAN DEMANDS CRYPTO PAYMENTS FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRANSIT
IRAN IS CHARGING A TOLL OF ~$1 PER BARREL ON OIL TANKERS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT
PAYMENTS ARE BEING SOUGHT IN CRYPTOCURRENCY TO BYPASS SANCTIONS, AVOID TRACEABILITY, AND PREVENT ASSET SEIZURE
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
BREAKING: Iran cannot currently open the Strait of Hormuz because it "cannot find" some of the mines it placed, US officials say
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
NEW: Some U.S. officials are concerned Iran could use the pause in fighting to rebuild parts of its missile arsenal, per The Wall Street Journal.
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@SPSchropp @AlexanderGrieve Absolutely obvious under the law, so good to see this finally winning out.
Too many frivolous cases protecting state rackets moving forward these days
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🚨BREAKING: Arizona federal court GRANTS the CFTC's motion to enjoin Arizona's criminal prosecution of Kalshi. Monday's arraignment will not go forward.
Stefan Schropp@SPSchropp
After SG concludes his rebuttal, Judge says that "under normal circumstances I would stay this case pending the Ninth Circuit's decision" in the appeal to be heard next week. Then announces a 15 minute recess, and says he will return with a decision.
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@HellionBond Former doesn’t mean current.
Half the government came up through the IRGC, it doesn’t mean they are loyal to its current leadership.
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@adamscochran There’s like 3 IRGC linked people here. I mean Ghalibaf was a former commander so I’m confused at this misinformation of yours lol.
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The concern here, is that the Iranian delegation does not include representation from either:
* The Assembly of Experts (the clerics who elect the Supreme Leader)
* The Supreme Leaders Office
* Guardian Council
* The IRGC
This supports the rumors that the “secular government” (I.e the parliament and Presidential offices) has split with the IRGC.
Because Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to be in a coma, there is a supposed power struggle between the parliamentary leaders and the IRGC, both who think they should be in charge of decision making.
This would also explain why we’ve seen different goals expressed, and why the parliament and foreign ministers office keep claiming they didn’t do any attacks during the ceasefire, while the IRGC obviously launched a number of strikes.
The IRGC is separate from their national army, and very loyal to its own leaders.
So if there is a power struggle internally, it’s possible we’ll see rogue attacks without the administrative governments consent, and there is even the risk of a coup or revolution, although at this stage I’d give it very low odds.
But it certainly means if any peace deal was achieved here, it will be on shaky grounds - as some of the core decision makers, who have their fingers on the button, don’t have a seat at the table.
Arya Yadeghaar@AryJeay
NEW: Iranian delegation led by Qalibaf has arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan The Iranian delegation, headed by the Parliament speaker, arrived in Islamabad, to negotiate with the American side. This delegation consists of security, political, military, economic, and legal committees. If the other side accepts Iran's preconditions for starting negotiations, these talks will begin. The FM, the Secretary of the Defense Council, Governor of the Central Bank, as well as some members of Parliament, are accompanying Qalibaf on this trip. Vance, along with Witkoff and Kushner, are also present in Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran has accepted a 2-week ceasefire but emphasized that if the agreement is not satisfactory to Iran and the Resistance Nexus, US & Israeli interests will be attacked again. According to unconfirmed reports: • The US has authorized the release of $6 billion dollars in frozen Iranian funds • A ceasefire will be implemented in Lebanon These are apparently the preconditions for Iran to start talks tomorrow.
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I’m not sure there is a bigger lapdog in journalism right now than Barak Ravid.
He has two types of articles:
1) Fake optimistic framing of the White House’s “accomplishments”
2) Being so far up the administration’s ass, that he needs a flashlight to write an article
Shalom Lipner@ShalomLipner
"This is a big deal for JD. He is going to the Super Bowl," one U.S. official told Axios... "Vance asked for the ball and he got it. He can be responsible for getting the deal that will end the war." @BarakRavid axios.com/2026/04/10/van…
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
Outstanding timing. Market closes on a Friday and suddenly we are sending more troops and there is no agreement on what the parties are even negotiating about. Can't say I didn't warn you guys.
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Iran is claiming that Trump accepted 4 preconditions in order to start the peace talks.
If these are true, it’s absolutely insane and either:
1) Trump is entirely capitulating which will be and
Or
2) Trump has no intention to honor the deal and will bomb anyways which will get *very* bad
مهدی خانعلیزاده@Khanalizadeh_IR
The 4 preconditions that Trump accepted: 1. The release of Iran’s frozen assets 2. A ceasefire in Lebanon 3. Limitation on passage through the Strait of Hormuz to 15 vessels per day, with transit payment 4. The prohibition of any redeployment of U.S. forces and equipments
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@_Dave__White_ If this is anything more than philosophical thinking, just know you can always reach out on tg! 🫡
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i've been thinking about how to prepare for death recently
i feel like one way is kind of the dry spirit route, where we're either doing our breath meditation, or maybe nondual stuff, kind of dissolving the ego, etc.
and then the other route is we are like, well, ok, simulation hypothesis is looking more likely by the day (both more technically feasible and just the unfathomable coincidence of being alive just right now), a lot of ancient traditions and so on seem to point in the same direction, so maybe there's some value to just doing a bunch of tibetan practices and/or DMT and really getting to know the anteroom of the highest probability next step after this one
also, of course, living well day to day and being good to those around us seems like a gimme
but... curious if others have been thinking about this and where you've landed
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American troops, and American negotiators are fighting for ego and dollars.
The Iranian’s are fighting for their country and their people.
No matter who you believe is right or wrong in this conflict, that motivator cannot be understated.
Someone who has something they feel worth fighting for is a dangerous opponent, on the battle field or at the negotiating table.
They will not let go of what they value easily.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
همراهان من در این پرواز #Minab168
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
NEW: US officials tell the WSJ that jets have recently arrived in the Middle East, and 1,500 to 2,000 troops from the Army's elite 82nd Airborne could arrive in the coming days, as well as thousands of sailors and Marines.
The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and 11th Marine Expeditionary are still on their way to the region, will likely take more than a week to arrive - WSJ
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) รีทวีตแล้ว
No wonder people insider trade 24/7
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP PROMISES MASS PARDONS TO STAFF BEFORE LEAVING OFFICE
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