Opening Bell Daily🔔

People who are not on X don't have the bandwidth to pay attention to geopolitics and news. But everyone notices gas prices.

AI is supposed to kill engineering jobs but that isn't happening. Open engineering roles are up 78% and the highest in 3 years. Engineering jobs cratered after ChatGPT launched but they have rebounded big. Engineering hiring has gone up right as the most powerful vibe coding tools ever come out. Another example of Jevons Paradox playing out in real time. When something gets cheaper and more efficient, consumption goes up, not down. AI makes engineers more valuable. More productive engineers means more software gets built and that means we need more engineers. The companies that figured this out first are hiring aggressively right now. The "AI kills jobs narrative" isn't the whole story. (h/t @lennysan)

Meta was ordered to pay $4.2 million in a landmark social media addiction trial. This is an important ruling. But $4.2 million is nothing to a company earning $60 billion a year. $META makes $4.2 million every 35 minutes.

Bitcoin and gold have moved in opposite directions since the Iran conflict began. That's not what most investors expected after the last year. I sat down with @samcallah to discuss how geopolitics are moving asset prices, the deteriorating fiscal outlook and what it means for bitcoin, and how investors should think about the current macro situation. Sam is one of the smartest researchers in the bitcoin space. He brings a unique perspective to macro investing. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 — Bitcoin's divergence from other assets 3:42 — Bitcoin vs. gold 5:49 — The Fed's dilemma 9:10 — Yield curve control and rates 11:04 — Bitcoin as two different assets 12:45 — Public & Generated Assets 13:52 — Bitcoin treasury companies 17:06 — Can treasury companies recover without $BTC? 18:15 — @ORANJEBTC 20:42 — Follow Sam

Nvidia has made its chips more efficient for a decade. Data center demand is up 13,000%. Jevon's paradox for the most critical technology in a generation in 1 chart. Better technology increases demand.

Bitcoin is at $71,000. It hit $126,000 in October. Down 43% in 5 months right as the halving cycle was supposed to be accelerating.

The market is selling memory stocks because Google's TurboQuant makes AI memory more efficient. That is completely backwards. • Micron -3.8% • Sandisk -3.2% • Seagate -1.8% • Samsung -0.5% • Western Digital -0.5% Google's TurboQuant compresses how much memory each AI model needs to run. That is not the same as the industry needing less memory overall. The most relevant variable is total demand, not consumption per model. Cheaper inference means faster AI deployment, which means more models running at the same time. ...which ultimately means more aggregate memory consumed. It's like how building more efficient chips did not shrink semiconductor demand. That's what made chip demand explode. That's why it doesn't make sense for the market to sell off memory on news that memory just got better. Bullish TurboQuant. $MU $STX $SNDK $WDC $EWY

Aging demographics will drive a generational wealth transfer but that doesn't mean wealth inequality will improve. @dgt10011 explains the macro dynamics at play.

Private credit fears are showing up in public markets. Massive sell off since Blue Owl gated its fund in February. $OWL $KKR $BX $APO

AI will make some workers more productive while entirely replacing others. It's no accident that the most disruptive technology in history is also the most labor destructive. @dgt10011 explains.

AI hyperscalers look dirt cheap compared to dot-com companies.

There are 3 unstoppable macro forces unfolding that will soon trigger a mass-liquidity event. Most investors are not ready. I sat down with Jeff Park (@dgt10011) to unpack how to invest with a worsening demographic outlook, historic wealth and income inequality, and the AI wrecking ball hitting the labor market. Jeff is one of the insightful macro thinkers in the industry today. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Jeff's viral essay 1:33 - 3 macro certainties 2:24 - Demographic headwinds 5:31 - Coming liquidity event 7:14 - Wealth vs. income inequality 13:19 - Generational wealth transfer 15:47 - AI is labor destructive 18:20 - Mispriced education trap 20:01 - What makes Jeff optimistic 20:35 - US demographics advantage 24:11 - Universal basic income 25:21 - Trump Accounts as soft UBI 26:26 - Reimagining private-public partnerships 28:17 - How to play the 3 mega trends 30:02 - Radical portfolio theory 31:49 - How to invest for the future 39:59 - Follow Jeff's work

Google has completely left the Magnificent 7 behind. Microsoft and Meta still negative over 12 months. The AI trade has fractured dramatically.

20 million barrels a day flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on Feb 27. Down 79% in 3 weeks. Largest oil supply shock in 50 years in 1 chart.

Gold has entered a bear market. Down 21% from its record high. Meanwhile bitcoin, $BTC, is up 4.5% today.

AI is making companies more productive and allowing them to accomplish more with fewer employees. That creates an economic paradox. For the first time ever, a shrinking labor market no longer means less productive companies. @APompliano explains.

Big Tech CEOs took home $271 million combined the same year they finalized ~86,000 job cuts. This chart will look very different when 2025-2026 data comes out.

Zero comparison between dot-com and AI boom. Free cash flow tells the entire story. $NVDA $MSFT $META $AAPL $AMNZ

Every technological revolution follows this pattern: 1. New technology hits 2. Assets price boom into a bubble 3. Bubble pops 4. Golden age productivity begins 5. Political unrest Each cycle brings very real productivity gains and job loss. AI is between stage 1 and 2 today.

Oil markets are stuck in a historic moment. If the Iran war continues to escalate and energy supplies deteriorate, $200 crude, $5 US gas prices, and more inflationary pressures could hit all at once. @jd_durkin explains the risks facing investors.