Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Citi Research’s first axiom for semiconductor investing:
“Do not buy or sell based on valuation.”
This tells you all you need to know about Wall Street.
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Millionaur
10.4K posts
Millionaur
@millionaur
eToro Popular Investor 🤖AI ⛏️metals ♻️energy 💊biotech 🧬 Bitcoin, Ethereum since 2017 🏂 riding technology & debt cycles
เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2021
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Et si je vous disais qu'il existait une façon de parier sur le futur de l'humanité ?
Pas une action autour de l'IA, pas une SaaS, pas un métal précieux
Mais la matière première que presque toutes les grandes transitions vont devoir consommer
Le cuivre
Électrification, Data centers, Grid, Robotique, Véhicules éléctriques, Défense, Infrastructure IA, Renouvelables...
Tout converge vers le même goulot d'étranglement physique
On peut débattre de la meilleure action semi, du meilleur hyperscaler, du meilleur fabricant de puces
Mais derrière chaque thème, il y a une constante :
Plus d'électricité → plus de réseau → plus de câbles → plus de cuivre.
Et c'est là que ça devient intéressant car l'offre ne suit pas.
>Les mines mettent 10 à 15 ans à sortir de terre
>Les permis traînent
>Les grades baissent
>Le CAPEX minier a été sous-investi pendant une décennie
Pendant ce temps, la demande accélère, résultat :
>Record historique en janvier 2026 à plus de 13 400 $/tonne
>J.P. Morgan anticipe un déficit de ~330 000 tonnes sur l'année
>UBS parle de plus de 400 000 tonnes.
Le sens est clair, pour moi, c'est le trade unidirectionnel le plus propre du marché et une tendance qui sera difficile à inverser.
TLDR :
Le cuivre est le métal de l'électrification et l'électrification est le trade central de la décennie.
Frenchie@Frenchie_
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
The market sold $AAOI off 11% for missing EPS by two cents (?). I’m buying the dip.
The miss was $0.02. The company raised >$200M in equity and deployed $68.7M in CapEx in a single quarter building factories.
You have to spend money to make money. This is a company investing ahead of the largest revenue ramp in its history.
Q1 delivered record revenue for the fourth consecutive quarter. $151.1M. Up 51% YoY. Up 13% sequentially. Management is explicitly saying demand is not the constraint – capacity is. Their internal demand number is $1.4-1.5B for 2026.
They guided to $1.1B because that’s what their factories can physically produce.
Q2 guidance: $180-198M. Another 30% sequential step up. Then Q3: management guided 60-80% sequential growth over Q2. Q4 similar to Q3. By mid-2027, $471M per month of data center transceiver revenue – $5.6B annualized from one product category.
The capacity ramp:
800G: 138K/month today → 420K/month by Q4 2026 → 550K/month by mid-2027.
1.6T: 10K/month today → 230K/month by Q4 2026 → 380K/month by Q4 2027.
ELSFP for CPO: starting Q4 2026 at 5K/month → 400K/month by Q4 2027.
Management confirmed an industry-wide InP laser shortage that will “persist and get more acute” with the advent of CPO.
This directly validates the $SIVE and $LITE supply chain opportunity.
When the CFO of one of the largest transceiver manufacturers in the world says InP laser shortage is getting more acute – that’s primary source confirmation that the external laser market is structurally undersupplied.
The compression today is entirely a product mix transition.
400G making way for 800G and 1.6T, both of which carry meaningfully higher margins.
Management is calling last quarter’s $200M order announcement “SMALL” compared to what’s to come.
Full year 2026 guidance: >$1.1B revenue, >$140M non-GAAP operating income.
To be honest, I’m usually the most bullish person in the room but these guys are on something else. They know demand exceeds supply through mid-2027, and they will make the most out of it.
Two risks worth naming.
Customer concentration (don’t do us a POET) – three customers are 98% of revenue.
Management fairy dust sniffing – the company has a historical pattern of promising large ramps and delivering them late.
Added to my position on the dip.
I’m long $AAOI.
(NFA)
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Everyone is searching for the next CPO bottleneck whilst ignoring one of the more obvious trades out there:
Chemicals.
It's the boring and unglamourous part of the AI infrastructure buildout, but one too many don't have on their radar.
You have:
1. $ENTG: The purity play.
Sits directly in the middle of the of $TSMC's Arizona fab.
-> A single contaminant can destroy a $30,000 package just like that. Just as $AEHR is critical to chips, $ENTG is critical to chips. It just hasn't moved yet.
2. $MKSI: The packaging chemistry play.
Supplies the specialty chemicals that enables advanced semiconductor packaging.
3. $ROG: System level materials play.
Indirect play on optical transceivers and high-speed switches.
4. $ESI: Direct advanced packaging play.
Most direct play on advanced packaging with organic growth now the highest since COVID.
I have a deep dive into the chemicals thematic out soon.
Make sure you're subscribed (for free).
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
INSANE Rule of 40 scores.
$SNDK: 322
SK Hynix: 270
$MU: 265
The old record was ~100.
AI broke the scale 🤪
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Lisa Su raised the server CPU TAM forecast from roughly $60B to over $120B by 2030, now
CPU-to-GPU ratio: 1:8 → 1:1
New AI Memory Demand? 16x
Agentic AI = Re-Fucking-Rate
$AMD $INTC $ARM $MU $DRAM $SNDK $TSM
Trade Whisperer@TradexWhisperer
$AMD $INTC AI Inference & Agentic AI Tailwind. Is Market finally pricing in the CPU necessity? -AMD CEO Lisa Su disclosed at the March 2026 Morgan Stanley TMT Conference that server CPU demand has "far exceeded" prior forecasts. -Meta and AMD announced a five year, $60 billion agreement anchored by 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" CPUs paired with next-gen GPUs, with workload-specific tuning for inference-heavy environments. -Intel and SambaNova are building a disaggregated inference architecture specifically for agentic AI. Intel Xeon 6 CPUs handle agentic tool execution and system orchestration. SambaNova RDUs handle LLM decode. GPUs handle prefill. -In agentic pipelines, the orchestration layer accounts for 50 to 90% of total system latency. That makes CPU performance the rate-limiting variable. Not VRAM. Not FLOPS. -Deloitte forecasts that inference will make up two thirds of all AI compute by 2026, far exceeding initial training costs.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$FLNC - Signed master supply agreements with two major hyperscalers, and still going through record 5.6 billion dollar backlog, with 3.36 billion revenue expected in 2026 which is right around their marketap. A lot of impatient selling and UBS downgrade caused some panic.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Top 4 photonics + asymmetric 10 bagger setups for the next decade:
$SIVE - Sivers Semiconductors
Building the optical backbone for AI datacenters. Tiny market cap with exposure to co-packaged optics, laser arrays, and next-gen AI interconnects. One of the more underfollowed photonics plays in Europe.
$LWLG - Lightwave Logic
Electro-optic polymers that could drastically reduce power consumption and latency in AI networking. If polymers become part of future silicon photonics stacks, upside is massive.
$ALMU - Aeluma
Compound semiconductors + photonics on silicon. Positioned at the intersection of sensing, quantum, AI, and defense. Very early but huge optionality.
$WOLF - Wolfspeed
Silicon carbide infrastructure for the electrification and AI power era. High risk balance sheet, but if execution improves the rerating potential is enormous.
Wildcard asymmetric names:
$MRAM - Everspin Technologies
Persistent memory for AI, aerospace, industrial, and defense systems. Small niche today but strong long-term asymmetric potential.
$ALRIB - Riber
Advanced epitaxy systems critical for compound semiconductors, photonics, and future semiconductor infrastructure.
$LPK - LPKF Laser & Electronics
Precision laser manufacturing and advanced semiconductor packaging exposure. Strong positioning if photonics and advanced chip packaging accelerate.
$SVCO - Silvaco
EDA/software infrastructure play for semiconductor design, power electronics, and emerging photonics workflows. Underfollowed picks-and-shovels angle on the semiconductor cycle.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$FLNC at $3.4B is an opportunity. Look at the numbers...
FY26 revenue guidance: $3.2B - $3.6B
Backlog: $5.6B
This backlog already exceeds the entire market cap by ~65% meaning the company's future revenue (assuming execution risk is minimal) is worth more than the entire business today.
And more importantly, that backlog does not include the hyperscaler pipeline of 12GW.
When we get an official announcement of the 2 hyperscaler deals in Q2 or Q3... then the re-rating could be far more substantial than today's +30% jump.
And then we have the digital and services business (the software) which sits on top of every battery storage system they deploy.
It means ARR is a nice derivative of their hardware business.. i.e. the bigger the installed base the more ARR they generate.
Here's why this matters in the numbers:
Typical software should get a valuation far above what the wider $FLNC business trades at now (0.5x sales).
I'd estimate a bare minimum of 3x sales for a software like business growing ARR at 22% YoY. That alone adds another $550M to the $FLNC story so far.
I'd be bullish on $FLNC here.
Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA)@MMMTwealth
The power grid upgrade is probably one of the clearest themes for the next 3-5 years. Aside from $XLU, the best names at current valuations I think are: 1. $ITRI: Smart grid, metering, and utility tech. 2. $FLNC: BESS for grid stability. If you're bullish on solar and wind energy, then BESS for stability is going to have huge demand. Slight issues with profitability, but trades very low for the growth. 3. $AES: The "safer" play with PPAs from $GOOGL and other hyperscalers. 4. $MYRG: Electrical infrastructure contractor trading at 17x NTM EBITDA for 18% EBITDA growth. 5. $PWR: So far, the clear winner but trades at a PE of 43x ahead of the pack. All of these plays are going to benefit from huge tailwinds in the sector. - Rate cuts - Huge CapEx cycle expected to top $1T in a couple years
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$CRWV Q1 EARNINGS
• Revenue $2.08B vs Est. $1.97B
• EPS ($1.40) vs Est. ($0.92)
• EBITDA $1.16B vs Est. $1.14B
• Backlog: $99.4B
• Total Contracted Power: ~3.5 GW
• Active Power: Surpassed 1 GW
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Investors are waking up to $FLNC.
There are two things that distinguish $FLNC from other battery companies.
First, it already has deep relationships with major customers. In 2022, it deployed 2.75 MW of storage capacity in $GOOG St. Ghislain data center in Belgium. In the same year, $AMZN also bought batteries from $FLNC to output 225MW for four hours. In 2023, it partnered with $META to deploy 1,200 MWh storage system in $META’s Arizona data center.
Second is its almost 100% American supply chain. When Trump admin extended the Section 48E Investment Tax Credits for energy storage and introduced restrictions to limit Chinese components in the US based projects, $FLNC was the first mover in reshoring manufacturing supply chain.
This enables $FLNC to offer higher quality products and service at lower prices as its supply chain ex-lithium anodes is 100% based in the US as of last September.
This makes it the preferred partner for the US based projects.
Data center capacity and power production from renewals will only grow over the next decade, sending demand for utility scale batteries vertical.
$FLNC is the best positioned company to supply this demand thanks to its almost 100% American supply chain and already deep relations with major customers like $GOOG and $AMZN.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look. Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals... The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT. The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers. Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players. Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement" I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2) Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027. The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$AAOI Q1 is in. Here's my take after listening to the full call.
Q1 came in at the low end at $151.1M, 29.2% gross margin, -$0.07 EPS. Stock got hit on the print. None of that matters. This is a forward-looking story and the ramp doesn't start until Q3.
Management raised FY26 from $1B+ to $1.1B+ revenue and $120M+ to $140M+ non-GAAP operating income. Thompson said internal target is $1.2B. Actual customer demand is $1.4-1.5B. They're guiding the only number they can control, their own capacity.
The mid-2027 monthly transceiver run rate went from $378M to $471M. That's ~$1.1B in annualized revenue added to the model in one quarter. 1.6T alone in 2027 is a $2B+ business per Thompson. AAOI's TTM revenue is $507M.
Q3 guided up 60-80% sequentially. Q4 similar. If Q2 hits the $189M midpoint, Q4 alone exceeds all of FY25.
40%+ gross margin target by Q4. Three 10%+ customers already in Q1 before the 1.6T ramp. Three multi-year CPO/laser agreements in negotiation.
Execution risk is still there. They have to procure InP substrates, hit qualification timelines, and stand up new facilities on schedule.
If they execute, this is a very solid long. Sold out through mid-2027 with customer demand 30%+ above what they can produce. Added under $140.
Full breakdown linked below.
$AAOI $LITE $COHR $AEHR $VIAV
KawzInvests 🦑@KawzInvests
$AAOI reports earnings tomorrow and this is what I'm expecting. 2025 revenue was $456M. Management guided $1B+ for 2026 with $120M+ in non-GAAP operating profit. The business is set to more than double in a single year after running $190-250M annually from 2019 through 2024. > Q1 guide is $150-165M vs Street at $157M. CATV running hot, 800G firmware slip from Q4 pushed shipments into Q1, and they beat EPS by 91% last print. Setup favors a beat. > Q2 is what matters. Management has telegraphed it as the first profitable quarter and the start of the 800G/1.6T ramp. Above $185M with positive NG EPS and the move continues. > OFC capacity slide showed 650K combined 800G + 1.6T units/month by Q4 26, 30% above prior guidance. 930K/month by Q4 27. That's a ~$6B annualized run rate from two product lines against a $14B market cap. Full pre-earnings breakdown linked below. $AAOI $LITE $COHR $AEHR $VIAV
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions.
Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies:
Nobody should care about current financials.
Key things market missed was:
AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers.
And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online"
If you do look at financials:
It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin
on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2.
We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out.
It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
The world's battery industry has scaled at a pace that's hard to picture. As recently as 2020, manufacturers deployed just 180 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity globally. By 2024, that figure had boomed to 1,100 gigawatt-hours, a six-fold expansion in four years. By 2030, it's projected to more than triple again.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$ARM: Record quarter, +20% revenue growth, 98% gross margin, and data center AI royalties more than doubled YoY
Arm delivered another strong quarter.
Revenue came in at $1.49B, up 20% YoY and slightly ahead of estimates. Adj. EPS was $0.60 vs. $0.58 expected.
Gross margin was 98%, up slightly YoY. Operating margin was 29%. Net margin improved to 21%, with net income up 49% YoY.
Growth was led by licensing again, with License and Other revenue up 29% YoY to $819M. Royalty revenue grew 11% YoY to $671M, but the more important detail is underneath the headline: data center royalty revenue more than doubled YoY.
Arm continues to sit in a strong position as AI workloads expand beyond GPUs. Agentic AI increases demand for CPUs around coordination, orchestration, security, data movement, and infrastructure efficiency.
Data center is becoming a larger part of the story. Hyperscalers are building more custom silicon around Arm-based CPUs, and management expects data center royalty revenue to double again this fiscal year.
ACV grew 22% YoY. Total Access licenses grew 27% YoY, with 6 added QoQ. Flexible Access licenses grew 5% YoY, with 11 added QoQ.
R&D was 47% of revenue, up 280 bps YoY. SG&A was 21% of revenue, up 80 bps YoY. Operating income grew only 7% YoY despite revenue growing 20%.
Margins are strong.
Free cash flow was $186M, with a 12% FCF margin, down 230 bps YoY. RPO also declined 7% YoY.
Guidance was fine. Q2 revenue guide is $1.26B ± $50M vs. $1.25B expected. Management expects roughly 20% growth in both royalty and license revenue for FY27.
The stock fell 6.4% after earnings, likely because expectations remain very high.
At 47.5x EV/Sales and 115x forward earnings, Arm has little room for “good but not perfect.”
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$VST Q1’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $5.64B (Est. $5.24B) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $1.029B
🔹 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA: $1.494B; +$254M YoY
🔹 Unrealized Hedge Gain: $723M
🔹 2026 Expected Generation Hedged: ~98%
🔹 Corporate Credit Rating: Upgraded to Investment Grade at second major credit rating agency
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA: $6.8B-$7.6B, reaffirmed
🔹 Ongoing Operations Adj. FCFbG: $3.925B-$4.725B, reaffirmed
Segment Performance:
🔹 Retail Adj. EBITDA: $68M
🔹 Texas Adj. EBITDA: $586M
🔹 East Adj. EBITDA: $801M
🔹 West Adj. EBITDA: $56M
Other Metrics:
🔹 2027 Expected Generation Hedged: ~89%
🔹 2028 Expected Generation Hedged: ~65%
🔹 2027 Adj. EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity: $7.4B-$7.8B
🔹 Liquidity: $4.173B
🔹 Cash & Cash Equivalents: $634M
Capital Return:
🔹 Share Repurchases Since Nov. 2021: ~$6.3B
🔹 Shares Outstanding Reduction Since Nov. 2021: ~30%
🔹 Remaining Share Repurchase Authorization: ~$1.5B
Commentary:
🔸 “Vistra had an exciting start to 2026, powered by the talent of our people, the capabilities of our generation portfolio, our commitment to our customers, and our ability to grow strategically.”
🔸 “Load growth remains strong across our primary markets, and we believe a large, diversified, and dispatchable generation fleet like ours is essential in meeting demand and supporting market reliability.”
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
In 2025, I told you to buy nuclear. We made 400% together.
In 2026, I am telling you to buy nuclear again. This time, get ready for 1,000%.
These are the best nuclear stocks to buy right NOW if you want to become a billionaire in 2 years:
1. Oklo $OKLO
2. NuScale Power $SMR
3. Nano Nuclear $NNE
4. ASP Isotopes $ASPI
5. Lightbridge $LTBR
6. Centrus Energy $LEU
7. ETF's include $URA, $NUCL, and $NUKZ
Never miss a bull run again. All my buy and sell signals in Discord @ stockwhale.vip.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$ANET: Revenue +35%, FCF margin hit 61%, but the stock fell 12% after earnings
Arista delivered solid Q1. Revenue grew 35.1% YoY to $2.71B, ahead of the $2.61B estimate.
Operating income grew 34.8% YoY to $1.16B. Operating margin held at 43%. EBITDA margin reached 44%. Free cash flow was $1.64B, a 61% FCF margin.
The growth engine remains cloud and AI networking.
Product revenue grew 20.9% YoY to $2.31B. Service revenue was roughly flat, but service gross profit still grew 27.7%. Product gross margin expanded 504 bps YoY. Service gross margin expanded 1,770 bps YoY.
AI fabrics continue to be the main strategic driver. Management raised its AI fabrics goal from $3.25B to $3.5B and now expects FY26 revenue of roughly $11.5B, implying 27.7% growth.
Q2 guidance was also above estimates.
Revenue is expected around $2.8B versus the $2.78B estimate. Adjusted EPS is expected around $0.88 versus the $0.86 estimate. Non-GAAP operating margin is guided to 46% to 47%.
Gross margin declined 170 bps YoY to 62%. Net margin fell 280 bps to 38%. Management also flagged supply constraints across wafers, silicon, CPUs, optics, and memory, with pressure expected to last one to two years.
Service revenue grew only 0.3%. Operating margin was slightly down YoY. Valuation remains demanding at 18.4x EV/Sales and 41.6x forward earnings. Purchase commitments have increased as Arista locks in supply for future AI deployments.
The market reaction was harsh, with the stock down 11.8% after earnings.
Overall, $ANET showed strong profitability, and strong AI networking demand, high free cash flow, and raised FY26 targets.
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Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
Millionaur รีทวีตแล้ว
$ARM CEO:
“Customer response to the Arm AGI CPU has been very strong. We now have more than $2 billion of customer demand across fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.”
“This is more than double what we stated at launch. We are on track towards our forecast of $15 billion as this business, as stated at our Arm Everywhere event.”
“Soon, the data center will be Arm’s largest business.”
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