Polymarket Intel

BREAKING: A permanent U.S. x Iran peace deal is now projected to be reached by next month. 62% chance.

Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir en route to Iran with a high-level delegation to deliver a U.S. message and coordinate a potential second round of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad.

Trump: “Why are we spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year on NATO if they're not going to be with us?"

Trump on Powell: "He should be lowering interest rates."

Trump: "I hope Warsh gets confirmed next week."

Zelensky: "I feel that from the very beginning, Trump said he would remain in the middle. This shows that he is not on my side, neither mine nor Russia's side. His signals are more positive towards Russia than towards Ukraine."

Ukrainian President Zelensky said Tuesday that US peace negotiators "have no time for Ukraine" because of the war in Iran, in an interview on German television on Tuesday.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "The current center right and left coalition in America has put us $40 trillion in debt. They've funded foreign war after foreign war after foreign war, and now they're funding another one, with no idea how long it will last. It's gotten to the point where Americans can't afford life."

Zelensky: "There is currently such a shortage of Patriot systems in Ukraine that it couldn't get any worse."

Hungary’s Péter Magyar: "President Erdoğan congratulated me on the election victory and sent his best wishes to Hungary and the Hungarian people. We agreed to continue cooperation between our countries in the areas of energy, security policy, trade, and culture." Magyar invited Erdoğan to Budapest. Erdoğan invited Magyar to Ankara.

Trump

Saudi Arabia is set to provide Pakistan with $3 billion in support, as Islamabad prepares to repay a $3.5 billion loan to the UAE.

Iranian government spokesman: The war has cost Iran's economy $270 billion in 40 days.

Iranian media: A car bomb reportedly exploded near a security checkpoint on Imam Khomeini Street in Tehran.

Ukraine and Norway signed a defense partnership declaration.

NEW 🔴 U.S. conditions for resuming Iran talks in Pakistan: 1. Full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before talks begin. 2. The Iranian delegation must have IRGC authority to cut a deal. Israel Hayom.

The White House says 103 empty tankers are heading to U.S. ports to load oil. - CBS News

JUST IN 🔴 Zero vessels left Iranian ports on the first day of the U.S. blockade. Six merchant ships turned back after American warnings. No enforcement actions were needed. Strait of Hormuz traffic continued with 20+ vessels passing through. - WSJ

Browder: Hungarians turned this into a referendum on Europe and Putin. In Budapest they chanted “Russians go home.” It is a landslide victory for the West and the EU, and a landslide defeat for Putin.

JUST IN 🔴 Europe is preparing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends, led by France and the U.K. without U.S. involvement. The mission would exclude countries directly involved in the conflict, the U.S., Israel, and Iran, to make it more acceptable to Tehran. - WSJ