It's an interesting fact of human history that we have these two similar sized islands, Japan and the UK that are close to a mainland, and have had outsized influence and power throughout history compared to their size. Having an island of a certain size or above separated from the mainland really seems like a powerful starting position. Both held their own historically against the significantly larger continental rival (France, China). Madagascar and the southern African mainland present a similar geographical arrangement, but it hasn't had the same historical importance.

I am certain you otherwise do not become confused by causation and correlation. You overlook that both Japan and England/Great Britain built navies that dominated the seas around them, are hereditary monarchies, and like whiskey. Canada has several very large islands close to the mainland. None came to have outsized influence over Canada or North America. Sicily, Sardinia, and Cyprus never held sway over southern Europe - or Northern Africa.

@jonatanpallesen What about New Zealand Australia or Taiwan China? New Zealand is farther than you think. Taiwan is relatively close.

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@jonatanpallesen I mean, it's only happened twice. Sri Lanka, Iceland, Cuba, Madagascar, Ireland, and a couple of others didn't become a major regional power. Those two countries adopted the right tech at the right moment, that allowed them to become naval empires.

@jonatanpallesen There are many things wrong with your post, both from a statistical and from a historical point of view.

@jonatanpallesen Interesting point re Madagascar, if Africans had invented the same things as Europeans and Asians it would’ve been the same story.

@jonatanpallesen Britain hadn't had outsized influence or power throughout history.. 1815-1814 hegemon level, perhaps max 400 years of being a large player.. Before the 1550s it was entirely periphery. Japan wasn't relevant before 1895

@jonatanpallesen Madagascar had the geography. Not the same historical inputs.

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@jonatanpallesen Cold winters theory explains why Madagascar didn’t have an impact.

@jonatanpallesen @jonatanpallesen Japan lost every war with China before the 19th century Meiji restoration when the UK built their modern military with prostitution money from karayuki-san. Britain was conquered by Normans from mainland Europe and not ruled by native Britons until the Tudors.

@jonatanpallesen @grok give us the hardest hitting details on the Malagasy slave Trade and its large historical important for its time.

@jonatanpallesen I would argue California plays a similar role in America. Not an island, but is secluded by mountains and deserts and other natural barriers from the main continental population centers.

@jonatanpallesen Japan and UK sharing similar geography and similar histories is fascinating🤔 Island status really does seem to create a unique resilience against continental pressure. The Madagascar comparison is the most interesting part of this theory.

Madagascar is much further from its respective mainland that Japan/Britain are. Especially if you consider the distance to significant population centres or trading partners rather than just the shortest straight-line boat ride. Britain and Japan are both in the sweet spot: far enough to deter invasion and conquest, but close enough to enable trade and cultural exchange.

@jonatanpallesen Japan is literally 55% bigger than the UK’s mainland.

China never attacked Japan. The Mongol Khan who ruled China & eastern Mongolia & Korea - HE attacked Japan. Twice, once in 1274 & again in 1281. That was the only time in recorded history that Japan was attacked, until 1905. England, by contrast, was attacked numerous times in recorded history.

@jonatanpallesen Long Island world order

@jonatanpallesen Did Japan really have an outsized power and influence throughout history? Basically, their hard power is contained to 1900-1945, and their softpower from 1980-present. For the rest of the history of the world, nobody cared about japan

@jonatanpallesen the phillipines is another compelling “alternate parallel” case especially for japan. a peek into what japan might be like if the shogunate hadn’t expelled the catholics + replaced the spanish/portuguese with the dutch.

Japan hasn't really held their own except for a very short period in history, like 200 years. The rest of time, they're not a real rival. China hasn't spent the last 1000 years thinking about Japan overtaking them or taking the Mandate of Heaven or choking them off or invading, etc etc. England was a much bigger rival of France and for much longer (800 years now, is it?) This is due to their size difference not being as big, and the nature of how the nobility system worked in Europe.

@jonatanpallesen They are highly similar types of developed countries, sharing a common structure of being island nations with long traditions, urban concentration, well-developed public transportation, and a strong culture of etiquette.

@jonatanpallesen Madagascar was uninhabited even during the years of Alexander the Greats lifetime it was only inhabited once people sailed there from indonesia in like year 400 or osomething

@jonatanpallesen Your missing the catalyst when you think of Madagascar. The catalyst is war, centuries of internal warfare + centuries of external war + large natural moat= empire builder. Every empire was built on a country with a defence advantage that was under constant war.

@jonatanpallesen > “Having an island of a certain size or above separated from the mainland really seems like a powerful starting position.” > Now consider the World Island Kind of works

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