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Action Network MLB
@ActionNetMLB
@ActionNetworkHQ's hub for everything sports bettors need to know about Major League Baseball. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler
Sumali Haziran 2018
53 Sinusundan5.8K Mga Tagasunod
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Action Network MLB nag-retweet

⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BEST BET
📉 ASTROS vs. MARINERS FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 4
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bit.ly/HOUSEA0412
🗣️ "This is a matchup where you have to sell high on these two lineups. It starts with this game at T-Mobile Park, which will feature its usual poor offensive conditions. That only adds to the starting pitching matchup, which features an elite starter in Logan Gilbert and a guy in Cody Bolton who's proven to be nasty in short stints. The price on the first five total is well off and should be taken advantage of this afternoon." - @ChiefZief

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⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BEST BET
📉 YANKEES vs. RAYS UNDER 7.5
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bit.ly/NYYTB0412
🗣️ "I wouldn't be shocked if this game ended 2-1. This will be a beautiful pitchers' duel and hopefully lead to an under." - @SeanPaulCBB

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⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BEST BET
🐟 MARLINS MONEYLINE
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bit.ly/MIA0412
🗣️ "his is an absolute superstar starting pitching matchup. But are we sure Tarik Skubal is the better arm? Sandy Alcantara has been near-perfect through three starts. He leads the league in innings pitched with a 0.74 ERA. He ranks second among MLB pitchers in fWAR (0.9). His command has been near-perfect, and that sinker is forcing tons of ground balls again (49%). He’s already thrown a complete-game shutout this season, but also tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies and 8 ⅓ two-run innings against the Reds. While Skubal still looks like an Ace, he’s struggled more than usual with contact this season (9.4% barrel rate, 40% hard-hit rate), leading to a surprisingly high 4.39 xERA. To throw in an even hotter take: are we sure the Tigers are the better team? The Marlins have exceeded expectations this season, while the Tigers have been relatively disappointing. The Fish have a very fun, athletic, versatile young lineup that ranks seventh among MLB teams in wRC+ (110). The Tigers can’t stop striking out (25%) and are running just a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (18th among MLB lineups). The Fish have been much better in the bullpen (3.90 xFIP, 0.7 fWAR) than the Tigers (4.41 xFIP, -0.1 fWAR). Miami has been much better on defense (+2 OAA, -0.1 Def) than Detroit (-4 OAA, -2.2 Def), in part because it has a far more athletic squad — their improved infield defense really helps a pitcher like Sandy. The uber-athletic Marlins also lead the league in Extra Runs Taken (+3), while the Tigers rank closer to league-average (+1). I think the wrong team might be favored on Sunday." - @tannerstruth

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⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BEST BET
📉 ANGELS vs. REDS UNDER 8.5
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bit.ly/LAACIN0412
🗣️ "The reason this total has taken some sharp money is that nobody is paying attention to Jose Soriano. Soriano has tossed 20 innings through three starts with a 0.45 ERA and earned run indicators in the mid-twos (2.87 xERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.65 xFIP). He’s still throwing his fastball over 98 MPH on average, boasting above-average stuff metrics as a result (103 Stuff+), but his command has been much improved (113 Location+). So far, Soriano ranks in the top 20 starting pitchers in fWAR (0.5) and third in Pitching+ (120). Meanwhile, Andrew Abbott is rather underrated. He doesn’t have great stuff, but he always overperforms his expected stats because of his unique ability to force weak fly balls. So far through the early season, these two bullpens have graded out above average, while these two offenses have graded out below average. In particular, the Reds' bats have struggled, posting a league-low 72 wRC+." - @tannerstruth

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⚾️ SUNDAY MLB SGP via @VegasMinion
❌ TWINS vs. BLUE JAYS NO RUNS FIRST INNING
📈 VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES
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bit.ly/TORMIN0412

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⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BEST BET
🌉 GIANTS MONEYLINE
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bit.ly/SFG0412
🗣️ "The Giants typically do a good job of platooning their hitters, and they’re currently running a 121 wRC+ against Southpaws on the season (seventh among MLB lineups). I think that spells trouble for Cade Povich, especially given he’s due for some serious regression (3.18 ERA, 5.57 xERA, 6.32 FIP, 5.60 xFIP) behind his -4.2% strikeout minus walk rate. I’m not overly excited to back Adrian Houser, but the Orioles have been just average against right-handed pitching. I see no real advantage for either side in the other aspects of the game (bullpen, defense, base running, etc.), so I’m more than happy to grab any plus-money price with the interleague road dog." - @tannerstruth

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⚾️ SUNDAY MLB BEST BET
📈 DIAMONDBACKS vs. PHILLIES OVER 8.5
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bit.ly/PHIARI0412
🗣️"I'm rolling with the Over. Gallen could struggle against the Phillies patient offense. And that'll give way to a Diamondbacks bullpen that ranks 23rd among relief staffs in ERA. It wouldn't shock me if Philly accounted for five or six of the nine runs on its own. I also touched on my Painter concerns and want to fade him with the walks likely to come." - @SeanPaulCBB

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Fun one I fired in the App yesterday morning, which crashed the market a bit
Going to take a lot to overcome the WAR / Cy Young correlation but maybe seeing something unprecedented
Mason Miller’s Stats to Track (assume 70 IP)
• ROS ER Projection: 13.5; can allow ≤ 7 ER for a sub-1.00 ERA
• ROS H+BB Projection: 55; can allow ≤ 48 H+BB to have a lower WHIP (.686) than 2003 Gagne (.692)

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