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Peter Obi may think he can once again use religion to secure the presidency, just as he attempted in 2023. What he may not understand, however, is that the dynamics have completely changed.
In 2023, many Christians were apprehensive about Tinubu’s Muslim–Muslim ticket, which led to a strong, collective response, i.e, religiously voting for the only Christian candidate in the person of Mr Peter Obi.
Their assumption was that Muslim voters would split their votes between Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, creating an opportunity for them to secure the highest number of votes.
I don’t blame them. That’s the beauty of democracy. It’s their right, and frankly, I would do the same. I’m also sure that if a Christian presidential candidate were to choose a Christian running mate, Muslim voters would respond in a similar way.
However, despite the unprecedented level of religiously driven voting pattern, Peter Obi still came third, behind Tinubu’s Muslim–Muslim ticket and Atiku’s Muslim–Christian ticket. Which is a very strong message to him and to those who pushed him.
Now that Tinubu is in power and appears to be managing relationships with Christian clerical leadership effectively, even, some would argue, favouring them over the Muslim clerics who openly campaigned for him, Peter Obi would be mistaken to expect the same level of religious momentum as in 2023.
Tinubu’s wife is a Christian, and a church pastor for that matter, and is seen as engaging well and openly with Christian communities. This will likely be a factor Obi must contend with when approaching Christian clerical establishments. That’s regarding his primary base.
Now let’s look at Kwankwaso, who secured 1.4 million votes in 2023 and is now rumoured to be a potential running mate to Peter Obi. A significant portion of his supporters may shift towards Atiku for two main reasons:
First, Kwankwaso would no longer be the presidential candidate, and many of his supporters may not be willing to back Peter Obi simply because Kwankwaso is his running mate. The ‘makafi’ among his voters may not account for up to 30% of his previous votes.
Second, although there was dissatisfaction with the APC in 2023, there wasn’t a strong, unified opposition vote, especially in the North. This was partly because Tinubu had not yet been tested, and partly because his Muslim–Muslim ticket received relatively little resistance.
As a result, many Northern voters who supported Kwankwaso did so with a degree of indifference. They recognised him as a spoiler candidate but voted for him anyway, as they were largely unconcerned about whether Tinubu or Atiku would win.
Now, however, the situation appears different. Fewer voters may be willing to waste their votes on candidates perceived as spoilers, especially if they believe such votes could indirectly support Tinubu’s re-election at the expense of broader national interests.
Las las, Atiku may still have an advantage over both Tinubu and a potential Obi–Kwankwaso ticket. The Muslim–Muslim strategy may not be as effective this time, and the level of religiously driven voting seen in 2023 in favour of Peter may not be repeated.
In the end, Atiku could consolidate support in the North and gain a reasonable share from the South and West, by positioning himself as the national candidate that he is, and potentially emerging the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, God willing.
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