LP

@AlleBurgers @PatientPersists @rubenivangaalen @mzelst @mkeulemans Elderly population isn't growing at a linear rate. Growth rate is far higher now than it was in 2015-2019.

@PatientPersists @rubenivangaalen @mzelst @mkeulemans Ik denk dat je weinig mist. Misschien had je de referentieperiode wat langer kunnen maken, dan zouden de griepdoden van 2018 minder meewegen. Je kunt de analyse het best verifiëren met de Human Mortality Database met ref. 2010-19.

Laagste niveau corona ooit gemeten in rioolwater (15)! Goed nieuws, en ook wat slecht nieuws🧵

@PatientPersists @rubenivangaalen @mzelst @mkeulemans The elderly population in the Netherlands isn't growing at a linear rate. 80+ population increased by 65k between 2015-20 and 132k between 2020 and 2025. Death rate was really bad everywhere 2021-23/24 but it's actually good now most places. Below pre- pandemic levels.

Maar dat betekent niet dat de oversterfte is opgehouden ten opzichte van wat je in 2019 zou verwachten! CBS berekent geen oversterfte meer, en RIVM gaat vrolijk verder t.o.v. 2024! Vreemd.. @rubenivangaalen @mzelst @mkeulemans mis ik hier iets?

@yadannofreeze @hey_itsmyturn They are the relative moderates. Kill them and IRGC decision making power increases.

@hey_itsmyturn Good, the US and Israel can track them and airstrike them tonight. 😁

Assim Munir meets with Islamic Regime's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as Parliament Speaker, Bagher Ghalibaf.

@LongDesertTrain @SolidEvidence @Lee_CrollPhD And here's UK. (from gwladwr's work)

@LongDesertTrain @SolidEvidence @Lee_CrollPhD Here's Ontario. Far lower earlier wave burden than US and UK.

I’m amazed. It’s really true: the BA.3.2 COVID lineage is infecting children at a much higher rate than previous lineages. I’m late to this party, but I couldn’t really believe it was true until I did the analysis for myself. 1/

@gwladwr Association between imprinting/exposure to pre-BA.1 antigen & protection from BA.3.2 is too strong to ignore. Large difference btw 1-4 and 5-14 in UK bc 5-14 had very high early wave exposure. Much less diff btw 1-4 and 5-14 would be expected in places like Japan & even Germany.

Covid in England 'RCGP Covid-19 National Incidence Rate by Age Band' Data for 2026 indicates an elevated incidence in cohort age 1-4 and a generally low incidence in age 5-14, with a surge in Week 07. Comparative data for 2025 to follow shortly. (RCGP data, @gwladwr chart)

@SolidEvidence I'm not understanding at all. When JN.1 came along all age groups susceptible. This suggests immune naivety was not a factor then. When BA.3 came along only certain ages susceptible. This suggests immune naivety could be a factor now.

@JOG412 As I said, it is suggestive, not a firm conclusion. I can't tell if you aren't understanding me or you are just being argumentative. Maybe someone else can try explaining it.

Summary about BA.3.2 disproportionately infecting kids. My first ever blog. lungfish-science.github.io/blog/2026-04-0…

@SolidEvidence But they weren't similar to each other. One caused a change in age distributions the other doesn't. A plausible reason for the change in age distributions is immune naivety.

@JOG412 Because the two replacements were so similar to each other. If naivety is a thing you would have expected it to be seen in both instances.

@SolidEvidence I wasn't arguing. I was asking in good faith why those 2 facts would suggest immune naivety is not the explanation?

@JOG412 OK, not going to argue.

@SolidEvidence When JN.1 replaced XBB there was no significant change in age distributions. When BA.3.2 replaced JN.1 (in some pops) descendents there was a significant change in age distributions. I don't understand why these 2 facts would even suggest that imm naivety is not the explanation?

@JOG412 We can't draw a firm conclusion, but it suggests that immune naivety is not the explanation.

@SolidEvidence @Lee_CrollPhD There is an obvious explanation. 3.2 is closer to wuhan than other recent variants on antigen map. Adults first exposure antigen imprinting is 90%+ wuhan or similar in most countries. Children it's 0% for age 0-5 and well below 50% for 6-18.

@Lee_CrollPhD It seems like there should be an obvious explanation, but it's counterintuitive. It's the people with multiple exposures (adults) that should be resistant to something new and evolved (BA.3.2), but it's the opposites. Suggesting this isn't an immunity thing.

@akarlin Mossflower is my all time childhood favorite.

I learned English from the Redwall series. In fact I believe this was the first English language book I ever read.

@SolidEvidence @LongDesertTrain @snpoehlm @JosetteSchoenma It's omicron imprinting. 100% in age 0-5. And a high % for age 6-18 because vax uptake for kids was poor everywhere (except china). Higher 6-18yr omi imprinting in countries that missed the worst of early waves (Japan, Australia, maybe Germany).

Thanks to @LongDesertTrain @snpoehlm @JosetteSchoenma and others that figured this out before me. 10/10

@JEFFWH75 @joshrogin Yes we are back at square one. Actually further from regime change than before the war because we have succeeded in uniting Iran. What have we accomplished?

@joshrogin We're back to square one?? Nothing we've done over the last 4 weeks means anything? Your analysis is ridiculous

“We’ve had about four weeks of the administration telling us everything’s fine, everything’s going according to plan. And now everyone can see with their eyes that that’s obviously not the case. So now we’re back to square one. How do we get out of this?” “The president is facing a choice. He can either de-escalate or he can double down. He can either admit that the original theory of the case, which was that we could bomb Iran into submission, and they’re just going to fold and give Trump everything he wants, is not true. Or he can say, ‘Screw us? No, screw you,’ and send in ground troops and escalate this thing even further. Neither of those are good options. But the status quo, which is that Trump claimed on national television just a day ago that everything’s going great and this is going to wrap up very soon, is obviously not true. It can no longer be sustained as a credible expression of U.S. policy or strategy in any way.”

@LongDesertTrain @Nucleocapsoid 0-13yr (now 5-18) vaccine uptake was poor like most countries. Omi vs. pre-omi imprint for current 5-18 age group really depends on severity of pre-omi waves. Japan far less severe than most countries. I'm trying to say that yes overall Japan has high wuhan imprint but not 0-18.

@JOG412 @Nucleocapsoid I would say Japan had high imprinting on the ancestral spike since they had a high vaccination rate (I believe with the stronger mRNA). China's vaccines were much weaker, resulting in less imprinting.

I'm keeping open mind on whether Orf7 deletion is the ONLY factor in BA.3.2's seeming predeliction for infecting children. Different immune history of kids (e.g. fewer vaccines, esp. Wuhan original IMPRINT) has always been possible contributor we should continue to keep in mind.

@LongDesertTrain @Nucleocapsoid It’s increasing in Japan now, which also has high omicron imprinting. China has strict air quality/ventilation standards in schools and daycares. 3.2 traded transmissibility for immune evasion (I think anyway?). Maybe it needs omicron imprinting AND high time/viral load to spread

@Nucleocapsoid I have 2 difficulties w/this idea: #1. If this were the case, BA.3.2 should its greatest success in China, where imprinting is weaker. We have 0 BA.3.2 from China. #2. In addition to imprinting, repeated vax provides greater Ab breadth, which should have the opposite effect.