@FilingSniperx Discussed it in details in the article. I don’t think they will have any financing risk in 2027.
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Meignin Guillaume
105 posts
the 2025 20-f is the tension point here. net income dropped 51% into a $460m newbuild commitment that exceeds $SHIP's market cap. q1 recovery is real but the 2027 financing execution risk isn't a footnote, it's the whole trade. the nav discount only closes if that capital stack holds.
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Just dropped a new deep dive on $SHIP
• Pure-play Capesize exposure
• Trading at a 36% discount to NAV
• Structural tonne-mile demand growth from Guinea + Simandou
• Orderbook effectively locked until 2029/30
• Aging global fleet + CII constraints reducing effective supply
• Potentially record El Niño into Q4’26/Q1’27
The key point:
Demand is growing on the longest dry bulk routes in the world while supply cannot respond fast enough.
That’s the setup.
Seanergy owns 20 Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels today and has 6 modern scrubber-fitted eco newbuilds arriving directly into what could become an extremely tight market in 2027-2028.
Meanwhile:
• Q1’26 was one of the strongest seasonal Q1s in years
• Spot rates remain elevated
• The company trades at ~$14 vs ~$21.8 NAV
• Dividend yield ~5.7%
Risks are real:
• Aging fleet
• Freight rate mean reversion
• 2027 financing execution
• Concentrated governance
But at current pricing, I think the risk/reward is compelling.
Full deep dive below with:
- detailed fleet analysis
- Guinea & Simandou thesis
- Capesize supply dynamics
- El Niño wildcard
- valuation work
- 2026/2027 cash flow modelling
- risk section
Link in first comment.
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@AllVentured @Special_Blends Thanks, need to look into that !
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@Special_Blends @MLmeign1 Agreed. Another excellent piece. The only major thing I would add is structural growth in iron ore volumes out of Brazil that will displace Chinese domestic and Australian production. Easily as meaningful as the Simandou ramp for capesize demand.
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@MLmeign1 Having followed, traded and invested in Seanergy $SHIP for a long time I have to give you respect. You didn’t miss much with that analysis. Great work 🍻
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That plunge below $14, 24 hours ago was a huge gift
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@bim55314916 True, I misread the transcript. Thank you for the correction.
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$IMPP
Update from the Q1 2026 earnings call: Harry stated that management's current NAV estimate stands at $14 per share on the current share count.
That said, it's worth doing the fully diluted math :
— Basic shares (Q1 2026 weighted avg): 45.3M
— Management NAV @ $14/share: ~$634M
— Class F + Class G warrants: 19.05M additional shares if fully exercised
— Cash proceeds to company from exercise: ~$120M (19.05M × $6.30)
Fully diluted NAV: $634M + $120M = $754M
Fully diluted shares: 45.3M + 19.05M = 64.35M
Fully diluted NAV/share: ~$11.72
At the current share price, that still implies a meaningful discount to NAV even after accounting for full warrant dilution.
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Buyback also accelerating: $3.8M deployed vs $0.9M in March.
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A few weeks ago I published a deep dive on $IMPP with what I thought were reasonable Q1 estimates.
I was wrong. Too conservative.
Revenue: est $54M, actual $61.7M Net income: est $21M, actual $28M EPS: est $0.47, actual $0.60.
Meignin Guillaume@MLmeign1
Just published my first deep dive $IMPP. Link in comments.
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Every “Iran peace deal” rumor sends oil lower… yet none of these talks have actually led to a deal, sanctions relief, or additional barrels hitting the market. Amazing how headlines keep pricing in an outcome that never materializes.
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Oil is moving back toward my base-case scenario. If prices hold at these levels through year-end, $CHRD could generate FCF equivalent to more than 25% of its current market cap.
Meignin Guillaume@MLmeign1
$CHRD New deep dive just dropped. Chord Energy generates a 28$ FCF yield in my base case scenario. Link in first comment 👇🏻.
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Meignin Guillaume nag-retweet
Today’s oil price action doesn’t look entirely rational to me.
I break down several scenarios in the article + my outlook below.
$CHRD remains one of my top ways to play it.
Meignin Guillaume@MLmeign1
$CHRD New deep dive just dropped. Chord Energy generates a 28$ FCF yield in my base case scenario. Link in first comment 👇🏻.
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$CHRD New deep dive just dropped.
Chord Energy generates a 28$ FCF yield in my base case scenario.
Link in first comment 👇🏻.
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$CHRD just delivered strong earnings.
I’ve been digging deep into the story, and my full breakdown drops tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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$IMPP disclosed in its latest 20-F that it repurchased 283K shares between March 6–23, roughly 22K shares per trading day (~$100K/day).
At a significant discount to NAV, these buybacks are clearly accretive to shareholder value.
Meignin Guillaume@MLmeign1
Just published my first deep dive $IMPP. Link in comments.
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