Great year. 158K and 99.4 percentile.
Won both paid bracket polls.
AND got my champion right for the 2nd straight year😳 that’s unlike me😂
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March Madness Analysis
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March Madness Analysis
@MarchAnalysis
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Sumali Mayıs 2022
113 Sinusundan128 Mga Tagasunod
Michigan beat Arizona by 18 last night.
No team over 38 adjEM has ever lost by more than 8 points.
The highest rated team (via adjEM) to EVER lose by 18+ points was 2025 Florida (36.46 adjEM).
Did Michigan just pull off the most impressive performance in CBB history😳⁉️
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Bracket stats are full proof. March Madness is not completely random. Do yourself a favor, and give yourself a competitive edge.
March Madness Analysis@MarchAnalysis
My last 6 bracket poll finishes (against 50-80 brackets each year): 2021: 1st🏆 2022: not even close🤢 2023: 3rd🥉 (If Creighton beat SDSU, I would’ve won) 2024: 3rd (if Purdue beat UConn, I would’ve won) 2025: 3rd (if Tennessee beat Houston, I would’ve won) 2026: 1st🏆
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My last 6 bracket poll finishes (against 50-80 brackets each year):
2021: 1st🏆
2022: not even close🤢
2023: 3rd🥉 (If Creighton beat SDSU, I would’ve won)
2024: 3rd (if Purdue beat UConn, I would’ve won)
2025: 3rd (if Tennessee beat Houston, I would’ve won)
2026: 1st🏆
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Post F4 Update:
Bracket 1:
- cooked, who cares
Bracket 2👨🍳:
- 98.8 percentile
- Champ still in tact〽️
- clinched 1st in ALL bracket polls🏆
Only 14% of brackets picked Michigan as the champ. I’m excited to where this bracket ranks on ESPNTC if Michigan beats UConn.
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Top 10 upsets by adjEM difference (pre-tourney):
1) HPU over Wisc: 14.99
2) Iowa over UF: 11.35
3) UConn over Duke: 11.03
4) Tex over GU: 9.07
5) Tenn over ISU: 6.40
6) TCU over OSU: 4.65
7) A&M over SMC: 4.40
8) Texas over BYU: 4.22
9) Iowa over Neb: 3.72
10) VCU over UNC: 3.63
So we got 2 more upsets than expected. Iowa over Florida, HPU over Wisconsin, and Texas over Gonzaga (without Huff) were all pretty severe and unexpected🤷♂️
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Based on this year’s Kenpom graph, the 2026 March Madness bracket was expected to have 3.6 upsets (5+ seed difference) and 6.9 upsets (3+ seed difference). Both were the lowest expected upsets in the Kenpom era (since 1997).
We got…
6 upsets (5+ seed)
9 upsets (3+ seed)
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Each program’s all-time record in Final Four games + Titles:
UConn: 12-1🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆
Michigan: 9-8🏆
Arizona: 3-3🏆
Illinois: 1-5
UConn is 6-0 in national title games while Michigan is 1-6…😂🤦♂️
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If you copied my 2nd bracket, you’re probably in the same position as me:
1) If Michigan beats AZ, you get 1st
2) If AZ beats Michigan, you get nothing- or maybe 3rd
If you’re confident in Michigan, let it ride.
If you think AZ will win, hedge and put $200 on AZ moneyline.
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WHY DOES UCONN NOT APPLY TO ANY BRACKET STAT?!?!😭 They’re immune😂
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It sucks so bad that my 2nd bracket is SO much better than the 1st bracket. Puts all my eggs into 1 basket. If AZ beats Michigan, it’s meaningless. If Michigan beats AZ, I will completely dominate everyone. Why can’t my brackets be equal, and I win money no matter the champ?🤦♂️
March Madness Analysis@MarchAnalysis
Duke losing put me in SUCH a bad spot. Issue is, I NEED Michigan to win the title, or else I can’t win any money in the bracket groups. Bracket 1 - 83.5 percentile - 9th/19th in bracket groups (can’t possibly finish top 3) Bracket 2 - 99.7 percentile - 1st in both groups
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Duke losing put me in SUCH a bad spot. Issue is, I NEED Michigan to win the title, or else I can’t win any money in the bracket groups.
Bracket 1
- 83.5 percentile
- 9th/19th in bracket groups (can’t possibly finish top 3)
Bracket 2
- 99.7 percentile
- 1st in both groups
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Duke losing really hurt my brackets bad.
A) 14.3% of brackets picked UConn in the Final Four
B) We’re missing out on so many points having Duke in the F4 and natty game because think of ALL the people who picked another team in the East Region or natty game
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March Madness Analysis nag-retweet
By far the best I’ve ever done to this point for a March Madness bracket 👀
Sure there’s some luck involved, but this year more than any other I valued the analysis of the individual matchups. Looking at strengths of weaknesses and how each team could (or could not) exploit them
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I would like to point out that these were ALL educated and statistically backed predictions… with maybe 20% of gut feeling. We discussed all 4 gambles as very real possibilities, and Michael had the guts to actually pick them. Truly impressive work🤜
F4
Duke>Ill
AZ>Mich
AZ>Duke
March Madness Analysis@MarchAnalysis
Shoutout to my guy, Michael Walsh, 102nd in the WORLD😳. He took 4 MAJOR gambles that ALL paid off (Iowa>UF, Illinois F4, Texas S16, Tenn E8). Highest I’ve EVER seen someone. He’s in the bracket stats group chat- predicting a bracket is NOT 100% luck. I pray I didn’t jinx him 🤞
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Shoutout to my guy, Michael Walsh, 102nd in the WORLD😳. He took 4 MAJOR gambles that ALL paid off (Iowa>UF, Illinois F4, Texas S16, Tenn E8). Highest I’ve EVER seen someone. He’s in the bracket stats group chat- predicting a bracket is NOT 100% luck.
I pray I didn’t jinx him 🤞
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