Micro Minority

Engineers and planners become headline sponsors and contribute $5 million to the fundraiser for the Black Stars' 2026 World Cup. #3Sports

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I see the frenzy around the Ghana Stock Exchange and my first instinct is to stay out of it. But I cannot simply stand by and watch people make grave financial mistakes. These are the kind of mistakes that will cause many people to lose their heads when the tides turn. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The tides are indeed in full swing. Markets are roaring to life, orders are hitting brokers and all time highs are being set. Soon enough we will see those who are swimming naked because it cannot go on forever. Some very well-read and knowledgeable people on this platform like @readJerome @DesmondBredu @GameliMartey have served as bulwarks of financial intelligence on Ghana’s side of X and I do not wish to “take their place”. All I ask is for you to hear me on why you might be making a mistake chasing the greens on the Ghana Stock Exchange. There are very few stocks on the GSE (38 currently). Just by obeying the Pareto principle, there are even lesser solid companies on the exchange. Most companies aren’t making their disclosures properly and have weak financials. The exchange is however portrayed to be full of “cheap” companies that are doing extremely well. This has caused FOMO among retail investors, driving prices upwards as they rush in to get a spot. The frenzy is not among retailers alone but also among UHNW buyers and institutional buyers. Everyone wants to get a piece of the action in this bull market. The GSE has recorded an impressive 50 percent plus return this year and has crossed GH¢ 250 billion in market cap. Stocks like MTN, GCB, Benso Oil Palm have done good this year climbing in double digits percentages. These are the smoke screen headlines but underneath all this buzz is a dire problem that unless solved poses a big threat that could derail the morale of Ghanaians to participate in investments of any sort. In 2021, I had the chance to participate in a meeting that would shape the future of our markets; the launch of IC’s electronic brokerage. Yes, it was in 2021, that our lead broker was going electronic to better serve clients. In this meeting I asked the MD of the GSE what work was being done to bring in market makers who could increase liquidity on the exchange, reduce volatility and thus spur further investment on our exchange. In response I was told that work was being done behind the scenes to increase liquidity and deepen the market. As we speak brokers still match buyers to sellers without the active work of any market maker. Anyone who has been in finance for a while knows how critical market makers are to the structure of markets. Without them, sellers would have to wait for buyers to be able to offload shares increasing volatility and rendering many unable to participate in the boom. The GSE lacks this essential mechanism and thus no surprise for me to see that shares are being offered without matching bid size. In most instances orders to buy or sell shares expire. I have suffered this on several occasions. The reason stocks make huge upward moves and equally sharp declines is the volatility created by illiquidity. As you’re investing on the exchange just know you’re taking a big illiquid risk, what happens when everyone’s rushing out the door in an economic or a market crisis. Who will be left holding the bag. The big moves and order expirations hitting after several weeks should tell you there’s a big problem and not a major opportunity. When it’s time to exit how will you do that. Many people are falling for the self-styled gurus who post things like “if you had invested GH¢10,000 in XYZ here’s how much you’d have today”. Good luck with getting that much in shares with some notable exceptions easily. This is greed being sold as financial intelligenc I leave you with some humor about understanding markets. “When your barber starts giving stock tips, it’s time to sell.”