O_Gosh

My coins and stonks, up time looking at charts, down infinity Number of times peed on, steadily up and to the right Hours slept, down bad

@thiccyth0t Donald J. Martin Gale Trump

the market was screaming to withdraw but how can you be surprised with his decision knowing the man trump is? does he seem like responsible decision maker who will stop out of a losing trade? or does he seem like the type to double down until he wins or dies in the process?

they don't know he tried to resign 3 weeks ago and is a hostage of the IRGC, nice market wide bounce though

reasonably prudent position more relevant after that google paper quantum risk is realer than ever sidebar it's a honeywell spin out so you can dca honeywell stonk on the open market

@chumbawamba22 4 more weeks until the 60 day mark where congressional approval needed to continue waging war seems likely it just festers out by then

Best bear market activity is having a baby. My wife gave birth to our first and it’s amazing how little I care about charts and geopolitics since the second she went into labor. Cash + a couple core positions with alerts set to buy carnage if it gets there while I’m occupied

One missing piece, the vast majority of the citizenry who loathes the regime has been instructed to stay inside by us and Israeli leadership. Once they’re signaled to hit the streets and protest who knows what will happen but the will of the people may be the final domino to turn the tide to a regime change

looks like Trump is looking for a way out, as America has massively underestimated Iran's military capabilities, its domestic support, and its willingness to escalate. However, I think the market is overlooking two major factors: 1.) The Iran Factor: The market and the world might see that Iran has held its own in this confrontation, outperforming what most of the world (including the US government) expected in terms of technology, strategy, and readiness to escalate. With the destruction/damage of regional US military bases, a quasi-nationalization of the Persian Gulf, and the dwindling interceptor and stand-off munitions arsenals of its adversaries, Iran will not be willing to simply stop this war until its own objectives are met. I think the market hasn't fully digested the current state of US military superiority and assumes Iran will just happily stop the moment the US stops or agree to negotiations. Well, the US has used negotiations twice in a row as a distraction to prepare an attack on Iran; negotiating a third time anytime soon won't be easy. Furthermore, Iran's supreme religious and state leader was killed in the first strike, which cannot simply be forgotten from an Iranian perspective. Iran also holds the strategic initiative in this confrontation, and the idea of negotiations is utterly discredited within Iranian political circles, radically shifting the political landscape. After decades of sanctions, Iran now sees a way out of its situation and a chance to completely reshape the power dynamics in the region. Iran has also seen that its one-off attack on Israel after the strike on its embassy in Syria, its attack on Israel after the killings of Haniyeh and Nasrallah, and its agreement to end the 12-day war failed to establish deterrence. The strategy Iran has employed this time, unlike all previous times, was not a strategy of deterrence. There were no massive salvos and no huge volume of spectacular impacts in Israel (unlike the 12-day war). Instead, there has been a systematic grinding down of surrounding US bases, US radars, and American/Israeli military capacities. All of this indicates that Iran is pursuing a clear strategy this time and isn't just trying to establish deterrence. Another factor is that what Iran states as its objectives and offers as conditions to stop are absolutely unacceptable from an American or Israeli perspective (dismantling all US bases in the region, a new regime in the Persian Gulf: i.e., the nationalization of the Gulf under Iranian control, ending Israeli military operations against Iran's allies, lifting sanctions, etc.). Finally, this war has given Iran's system of government a form of legitimacy and domestic backing that it hasn't had for decades, comparable to how the Iran-Iraq war solidified the new order after the Iranian Revolution. Therefore, from a rational standpoint, I see no reason why Iran, as a self-interest-maximizing actor, would happily agree to an American-led cessation of hostilities. 2.) The Israel/US Factor: From an Israeli perspective, I wouldn't overstate the mood in Tel Aviv regarding dissatisfaction and protests, as Tel Aviv was never a Netanyahu stronghold anyway. An Iranian victory would be an absolute disaster for Israel, as Iran would emerge as the first state enemy in Israel's history that Israel couldn't defeat. The capabilities of Iran and its allies would increase exponentially after an end to hostilities, especially considering that Iran would come out of the conflict in a much better position with more resources at its disposal. The Iran-aligned forces in Yemen are showing massive growth in their capabilities; they successfully rendered the port of Eilat unusable and fired rockets 2,000 km into Israel. Even if those didn't cause massive damage, it is a deeply troubling development for Israel that such an actor can continually expand its capabilities with Iran's help. The same goes for Lebanese Hezbollah, which, despite all the bombing, the elimination of its leadership, infiltration, and the loss of its supply routes in Syria, has apparently been able to rebuild its capacities under the most adverse conditions. They are currently engaging Israel in ground combat and carrying out high-volume rocket attacks. America is in a real catch-22 here. I think what the US will still try to do is seize Chabahar in southern Iran to gain a better negotiating position. But given the current status quo, a simple withdrawal like the one in Yemen back then (declare victory and pull out) just isn't possible. Israel cannot afford that; America would be completely discredited in the eyes of its Arab allies, and it would mean a massive loss of its own ability to project global power.

Afro mother fuckin M-A-N

tight tight

@chumbawamba22 @0xSunRun What if anything

housing all of finance wasnt just a fun little tag line

our little collectible nfts aren't securities someone make them cool again plz

@0xKNL__ yes next question

is kobe bryant a top-10 all time player?

but they swore that predicting was not gambling

@dopiewankenobi Not great!

@OGosh33 Hb 2027?

it's the year 2026 and there are still people on ct who hold 0 hype. gross!

10:30 slam back on the menu

@arthur0x @safetyth1rd don't be psyops by the doomerism, irgc chain of command and basij are on its last legs. Avg people will be back rioting in the streets fighting for their freedom in less than 2 weeks.

@safetyth1rd Don't be psyops by foreign ministry of Iran, IRGC call the shots there

If you’re long oil I’d suggest updating your views today Situation is evolving rapidly

@ThinkingUSD Close enough

Periodic reminder, if you’re building a company to reduce porn consumption, funding anti pornography litigation or a non profit for rehabilitation I’d love to speak.

not great