phoenix

2.7K posts

phoenix

phoenix

@Phoenix_FFM

Asymmetric bets, deep value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller

Sumali Mayıs 2022
520 Sinusundan401 Mga Tagasunod
Naka-pin na Tweet
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Current allocation: 30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver 15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa 55% global diversified microcaps >30% short cash Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets. Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM

Current allocation: 15% litigation finance 15% gold via miners to increase leverage to the gold price 15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca, $LUS1 55% small and microcaps 45% short cash Oil and gas stocks are dragging the portfolio down currently.

English
2
0
1
1.2K
Lionheart Investing
Lionheart Investing@LionheartInves1·
Being on Substack and Twitter is like having a private army of analysts. I got an oil guy, I got a gold guy, I got a chart guy, I got a nano cap guy etc etc it's great.
English
1
0
2
48
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
$2 million per ship x 100 ships/day. - > Iran would be back on their feet in no time and stronger than ever -> 70bn/yr for Iran -> compared to egypts Suez canal which made $10 bn in good times, so it's big money however you look at it
English
1
0
2
71
phoenix nag-retweet
The Long View
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes·
Into the weekend like….
English
11
21
134
25.9K
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@wpursell_dev Unreasonable risks can be ring-fenced e.g. by a llc. Those who go for it are the basis of global progress and should be celebrated regularly.
English
0
0
0
4
Will Pursell
Will Pursell@wpursell_dev·
@Phoenix_FFM The odds aren’t good anyway, so no use in obsessing over a success rate, lol. Risk is the name of the game.
English
1
0
1
6
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Very true! There's vast research showing that the chances are stacked against you und the failure rates are extremely high. Gladly nobody reads research about success rates of startups. Imagine being teenage Elon and telling someone you're about to build multiple successful companies that will reshape entire industries and make you the richest person alive. How would he not be considered delusional?
Codie Sanchez@Codie_Sanchez

Harsh truth: if you’re at a startup and the founder isn’t intense and even slightly delusional… you’re not going to win.

English
1
0
1
174
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Why would Iran open the strait if the US blockade is still in effect? 😉
English
0
0
0
43
Clark Square Capital
Clark Square Capital@ClarkSquareCap·
me, when another hedge fund manager starts a paid substack
Clark Square Capital tweet media
English
4
7
142
7.6K
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
We have some similar products in Europe. It's a note with a bank as counterparty. If they default you loose even if you won the bet. So the worst case is zero % return? What's the catch? Maybe it is calculated in Tenge? Current interest rate is around 18%. So the trick is maybe you lend them money for 0% and they can invest it 18%. They use a part of the proceeds to hedge the stock position and the rest is their profit.
English
0
0
1
16
Mr.Paul
Mr.Paul@shravanrayhaan·
Essentially a note(didnt bother reading the whole prospectus) offering 9% even if berky shares rise way more than that or just your money back if they decline. The audacity! Lol #freedomholdings
English
1
0
0
35
Mr.Paul
Mr.Paul@shravanrayhaan·
Amazing what is perfectly legal some days. 😆 🤣 Freedom Brokers (Keep an account with them primarily to get kazakh exposure at some point/diversify away from ibkr)
Mr.Paul tweet mediaMr.Paul tweet media
English
1
0
1
183
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@toiletkingcap I'm still guessing yes but I'm also loosing on all related stocks so better ignore
English
0
0
2
118
🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing
🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing@toiletkingcap·
so are we invading or nah? if we invade, will traffic stop and this is all reversed?
English
14
0
36
4.8K
Lee Roach
Lee Roach@leevalueroach·
You guys ever read the news on your laptop, while also reading another news story on your phone, while the news plays on the TV in the background?
English
8
0
13
1.6K
phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@AyusoValue I see your point. I hope the market develops a different view as those reliable cash flows deserve a higher multiple imo.
English
1
0
0
71
Ayuso
Ayuso@AyusoValue·
@Phoenix_FFM Well, it is precisely in those jurisdictions where FLNGs make more sense. Anyway, one could just as easily argue that the EU/US are no longer safe jurisdictions for infrastructure investment.
English
1
0
2
153
Ayuso
Ayuso@AyusoValue·
Maybe I am a dreamer, but I wouldn’t discard a $GLNG vessel in Venezuela in the not-too-distant future. Venezuela produced ~25–30 Mtpa of gas in 2024, with ~54% effectively wasted (flared + vented). That’s before any oil ramp-up. The constraint is not resource; it’s infrastructure. And Golar is there to solve that problem.
Ayuso tweet mediaAyuso tweet media
English
4
1
38
3.5K

Tuklasin

@LionheartInves1 @T3_RM @Kacper_PK_CH @wpursell_dev @memyselfandi006 @nevergr33dy @ClarkSquareCap @elonmusk