Abdo Jabassini

Volatility in southern #Syria is not sudden. It stems from wartime and post-2018 legacies. My latest research traces this evolution and what it means for state authority, armed networks, drug trafficking, and foreign intervention. @ArabReform_ARI bit.ly/4ryNIQh

🧵 Is #Syria turning the page on decades of corruption? Do Syria’s recent anti-corruption initiatives signal genuine reform — or are they largely superficial gestures? In our latest publication for @U4_ACRC, @JosephDaher19 and I present the first comparative assessment of reform and anti-corruption efforts in: 1️⃣ Security sector – Ministry of Interior & Ministry of Defence. 2️⃣Economic governance – public sector employment, economic agreements, state funds, and institutional restructuring. Full report: bit.ly/3O4nbed

4/ With variations across the two sectors, we find that: (A) Transparency has increased in visibility, but it has yet to reach core decision-making processes. The processes and reasoning behind policy formulation remain largely opaque to the general public (B) Public participation is limited and operates more as a signal of openness than as a genuine channel for citizens to influence policy. (C) Accountability mechanisms represent a formal break from the previous regime’s practices, yet they remain largely symbolic in the security sector and are applied selectively in the economic sphere. (D) Public participation follows a similar pattern. Consultative forums, meetings, and invitations to dialogue are positive developments, but they often function more as signals of openness than as genuine channels for influencing policy or institutional behaviour.

3/ We find that anti-corruption measures initiated by the transitional government represent a departure from former regime practices, but progress remains limited by: (A) Structural constraints: The authorities inherited institutions with limited administrative capacity, which hinders rapid or comprehensive reform. (B) Political incentives: The fragility of the transition encourages a focus on stability and power consolidation rather than deeper and rapid institutional change.

2/ We find that recent anti-corruption measures initiated by the transitional government mark a departure from former regime practices, but progress remains limited by 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 and 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀.

🧵 𝗜𝘀 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁? Our paper with @JosephDaher19 for @U4_ACRC provides the first assessment of reform & anti-corruption efforts in Syria’s 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 & 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 sectors 
bit.ly/3O4nbed

@azelin @ArabReform_ARI Thank you, Aaron!

@Syrianzo @ArabReform_ARI Excellent work as always!

Volatility in southern #Syria is not sudden. It stems from wartime and post-2018 legacies. My latest research traces this evolution and what it means for state authority, armed networks, drug trafficking, and foreign intervention. @ArabReform_ARI bit.ly/4ryNIQh

#Turkey’s manoeuvres in #Syria & #Libya are key components in a bold strategy to strengthen its position and secure long-term leverage in the #Mediterranean —but the path is not without challenges My latest with @emad_badi for @AtlanticCouncil @ACMideast bit.ly/4jaAqVR

A few Syrians shared with me that they were surprised to see what they thought were casual chats with foreign journalists quoted in reports. A reminder: ethical principles—such as informed consent & explaining the purpose & potential use of interviews—apply in Syria as elsewhere.

3/ The process will involve a representative from the Ministry of Defence, signalling HTS’s intent to co-opt, rather than confront, pre-existing civilian and military structures in #Daraa.

2/ Local armed factions will begin reorganising, focusing on dismantling or absorbing smaller autonomous groups—through persuasion or coercion—while excluding individuals with criminal records. Efforts will prioritise weapons collection, border security & maintaining local order

🧵 1/ Yesterday, a meeting was held between representatives of armed factions in #Daraa and Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS. Previous tensions were reportedly diffused, with an agreement reached to integrate local factions into the military institution.

4/ For many local stakeholders, unless HTS recognises Daraa’s unique postwar trajectory and adjusts its strategy to engage with the region’s distinctive dynamics and power structures, the likelihood of escalating tensions in southern Syria will continue to rise.

3/ This resistance seems to be fuelled by HTS's wartime history, marked by tense relations with many local armed factions, and its efforts to rebuild its capabilities through covert activities in the border region following the regime's return to #Daraa in 2018.

🧵 Challenges to #HTS approach in southern #Syria: 1/ Meetings between Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS and many leaders of armed factions in #Daraa Governorate seem to reveal a broad yet fragile consensus that conceals underlying tensions.

Syrians are closely monitoring every report published and will expose and challenge any narrative that misleads the audience and disrespects the suffering of real victims. Great work by @VeSyriaE exposing @CNN misleading report by @clarissaward bit.ly/3BHtGOa

Even if not staged, why is a white journalist turning a man’s trauma into a spectacle? Guiding him out of prison like a savior fantasy feels exploitative at best, voyeuristic at worst. Countless real, devastating stories of Syrian captives deserve to be told with dignity.