Teflon
190 posts
Teflon
@Teflocks
Mediocre Low Stakes Sports Bets | Philly Sports | Baseball Card Enjoyer
2026 Bowman Mega Boxes and Updated Base Numbers Big shoutout to Lids for releasing Megas 2 weeks early. A couple legends were cool enough to post their Mega rips online already. That's all the Squatch needs. This gives us enough data to publish numbers on Mega Boxes. For transparency, I made a run to my local Lids today to “verify findings”, for science. Walk in ready to join the party and shelves were wiped. Apparently a company-wide memo came down telling stores to yank Megas and sit on them until release day. Gotta love when random retail spots try to cosplay as an LCS, even though they haven't the faintest idea when it comes to sports cards. Our big questions were: 1) One Mojo per pack or two? Answer: 2.. Win for us. 2) 1st Bowman Autos? Answer: still cloudy. I have not seen any yet, but still possible. This will not affect any numbers. But it will affect actual value of the format. Total production of Megas: 713,325 boxes (35,666 cases) YOY +18.9% Of course, we already knew production numbers. Really the only thing this changes for us is Mojo Base calculations and Hit Rates. Mega Box Hit rates: 1 auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7 autos/case) 16.3 parallels/box, 1.4 inserts/box. 0.8 numbered cards/box Base Mojos Print Run: ~71,300 ea So how does this news affect Mega Values? Adding more Mojo refractors than expected is definitely a good thing. Sure, the print run is a little higher. Up from ~49,200 ea last year, this represents a 45% increase year over year. But I doubt this will affect values much. Counting base Mojos as parallels, this brings the parallels per Mega box up to 16.3. This is solid. And by far the lowest $ per parallel of any format for Bowman. Second behind only Value Boxes in numbered cards as well. Overall, Megas are a better buy than originally anticipated. If we find out, by some small chance, that there are also 1st Bowman Autos in Megas (I'd be shocked, but still technically possible), they would be a no-brainer buy. As is, they're still a solid format for floor value, probably slightly behind Value Boxes due to the lack of rare insert potential. Now on to everyone's favorite... Base Card Print Runs Until now, all I had was a total for all base cards. This included Paper Base, Paper Prospects, and Chrome Prospect Base. Now, using pack dynamics, we are able to delineate those totals and come close to base print runs for each. Base Paper: ~375,000 ea Base Paper Prospects: ~255,000 ea Base Chrome Prospects: ~192,000 ea This should put a bow on 2026 Bowman. If you’ve been following, you already know where the Squatch has stood since odds dropped...Value Boxes. The name actually means something this time. And now that real world rips are rolling in, it’s not just a theory anymore. I honestly can’t remember another release where $100+ cards popped out of Value Boxes this consistently. Hobby how you hobby… but if I see them in the wild, I’m not walking by without grabbing what I can. This is one call I'm happy to be right about. Good luck out there. #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026BowmanisaBeast
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