Jake Walker

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What if you could read one thing every morning and know more than 90% of market participants before the open? That's the goal of the Walk-Squawk Morning Wire. Macro. Stocks. Bonds. Energy. Grains. Weather. Trade. Positioning. The most important market developments distilled into a quick read before your first cup of coffee. Have a look.. it doesn't cost nutt'n open.substack.com/pub/walksquawk… #WalkSquawk

🌽Morning Grain Rundown Corn bouncing this morning as crude oil rallies following overnight U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. Corn: • Crude rebound helping stabilize grains • Export demand remains strong even without China • Funds liquidated longs on yesterday’s break • Midwest mostly dry next 10 days, but crops remain in good shape for now 🫘 Soybeans: • Bean oil supported by stronger crude • Argentina oilseed worker strike adds uncertainty • China still buying Brazilian beans • Overall uptrend remains intact despite recent pullback 🌾 Wheat: • Seasonal harvest pressure continues • Europe remains hot/dry through weekend • Russian & Indian production estimates weighing on prices • Sellers still active on rallies Big themes: ✓ Crude oil back higher ✓ Weather still mostly favorable ✓ Export demand supportive ✓ Markets closely watching geopolitical developments #corn #soybeans #wheat #agmarkets #commodities #WalkSquawk

🌽 Grain Markets Under Pressure to Start the Week Crude oil is lower this morning as traders continue to monitor progress toward a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, removing some of the risk premium from energy markets and creating headwinds across the grain complex. Corn: • Export demand remains a bright spot, running ahead of USDA pace • Improved soil moisture across much of the Corn Belt • Funds still hold a sizable 293k+ contract net long • Key support levels being tested Soybeans: • Bean oil pressured by weaker energy markets • Hotter, drier Midwest pattern developing • Recent rains provide crops a cushion against short-term stress • Large speculative length leaves liquidation risk if support breaks Wheat: • Harvest pressure building • Ukraine exports expected to rebound sharply • Open interest rising on the decline suggests fresh selling • Bears maintain the near-term edge #agmarkets #commodities #WalkSquawk

🌽 Morning Grain Rundown Corn: • 2nd day lower as crude weakened on Iran deal hopes • Export demand remains exceptional, running ~5% above USDA pace • Argentina corn crop raised to 64 MMT • Global grain stocks projected to tighten 4% this year • Any China buying headline could trigger a sharp rally 🫘 Soybeans: • Bean oil supported as crude rebounds • Argentina crop raised to 50.1 MMT • Brazil production estimate increased to 180.6 MMT • Argentine meal stocks at 3-year lows supporting U.S. exports • Technical trend remains higher despite recent pullback 🌾Wheat: • Plains rain forecasts limiting upside momentum • Global wheat production cut 1 MMT by IGC • Argentina reducing export tax increases competition • Russian disease concerns remain • Chart action still favors bears #corn #soybeans #wheat #agmarkets #grainmarkets #WalkSquawk

🌽Morning Grain Rundown Funds dumped an estimated 23,000+ corn contracts yesterday as traders grow impatient waiting for clarity on China ag purchases. Favorable Midwest weather and yesterday's crude oil selloff added pressure, but the bigger picture hasn't changed. • Ethanol production came in strong • Corn export sales expected 1.0–1.8 MMT • Crude rebounding after Iran says uranium stays in-country • Weather remains mostly favorable, with needed rains forecast in parts of the Plains • China tariff talks remain the wildcard The market wants proof, not promises. If tariffs come down and U.S. corn becomes competitive again, China demand could quickly return to the conversation. For now, funds are liquidating, but fundamentals still argue against a major washout. #corn #soybeans #wheat #agmarkets #commodities #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown🌽🌾 USDA lit a fire under the grain markets. Corn: Global stocks tighter than expected after a large China cut. Exports raised, yield lowered, demand stronger. Talk growing of potential China purchases of US corn/DDGs/milo. 👉 Bulls firmly in control, new crop leading Beans: July hit 2-month highs, Nov new 3-year highs. New crop stocks tighter with crush + exports raised. Market leaning bullish into the Beijing summit. 👉 Risk of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” if China deal underwhelms Wheat: Limit-up explosion after USDA confirmed severe HRW damage. • US wheat crop lowest since 1972 • HRW production down 36% YoY • Kansas tour confirming drought + freeze losses • Funds likely flipped from short to long 👉 KC wheat remains the leader as market searches for a level to ration high-protein demand. Bottom Line: USDA confirmed tightening supply stories across grains. Corn + beans bid on demand optimism. Wheat in full-blown supply shock rally. #Grains #WalkSquawk

The May #WASDE Price History This report often creates sharp knee-jerk volatility even when closing prices don’t look dramatic. The biggest reactions historically came during: • tight balance sheets • weather uncertainty • geopolitical supply shocks • heavy fund positioning imbalances What’s changed lately? 2023–2025 reactions have been much more muted versus the chaos of 2021–2022. May WASDE still matters because it officially shifts the grain trade from old-crop fundamentals → summer weather trade. That transition is where trends are born. #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown 🌽 Macro + crude driving liquidation short-term Corn: Long liquidation continues as crude falls + Iran peace hopes pull war premium out. Funds reducing exposure ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE. 👉 Near-term bears in control, but fertilizer + acreage issues remain long-term supportive. Beans: Back inside prior range as bean oil gets hit with crude weakness. Traders watching for potential China buying ahead of Trump’s trip next week. 👉 Pressure remains unless demand headlines emerge. Wheat: Selling pressure continues, but next week’s Kansas crop tour could refocus attention on poor HRW conditions. 👉 Technical weakness now, weather story still underneath. #Grains #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown 🌽 Strong finish last week, steady start today. Corn + beans bid on demand + supply risks Wheat correcting Corn: Holding firm despite crude bounce. Funds added ~80K longs (still room to add). Ethanol margins strong. Global acreage + fertilizer issues tightening outlook (EU/Romania cuts). 👉 Bull trend intact Beans: Breakout holding → new highs (Nov ’23 levels). Biofuels + China summit demand tailwind. Tight oil/meal stocks supportive. 👉 Bulls in control into mid-month Wheat: Pulling back (Plains rain outlook + India exports restart). Funds flipped long Chicago. 👉 Near-term pressure, longer-term support still there #Grains #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown 🌽 Markets overbought short-term, but global supply risks + fertilizer story = strong floor Corn: Up in April, opening firm again. Overbought but dips supported by fertilizer shortages + potential acreage cuts. Planting to accelerate on drier forecast. 👉 Pullbacks = buying opportunities Beans: Bean oil at new highs → lifting beans back above range. Strong crush margins + tight meal supply risk. China demand solid. 👉 Bulls in control (new crop strongest) Wheat: Bouncing after pullback. Chicago weak, KC holding better. Plains still dry, drought elevated. 👉 Pullback may continue, KC leads on HRW risk #Grains #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown🌽 Markets pausing after a strong run. Corn: Tested 14-month highs → slight pullback (crude weaker + rains SE/Delta) Planting window improving, momentum overbought Brazil dryness still a risk, dollar weak supportive 👉 Near-term pullback risk, trend still higher Beans: Took out highs overnight → fading on profit-taking Bean oil ripping (’22 highs), but beans struggling to hold breakout Weather improving in US = headwind 👉 Need follow-through close or risk another failed breakout Wheat: Pulling back after sharp rally (profit-taking + some Plains rain) Global production cuts (Canada/Australia) still supportive HRW yields = key unknown 👉 Setback likely temporary, support underneath Bottom Line: Overbought + month-end flows = pause Trend still bullish, but watching for pullback vs continuation #Grains #WalkSquawk

@govinda49992482 Right now bulls have: • Weather risk (Brazil dryness / US ahead) • Meal tightness + Argentina issues • China demand potential If that changes (weather improves / demand disappoints)then… those longs become fuel on the way down.

@WalkSquawk Can't find anybody bearish in any commodities except natural gas. Just wonder if the trend changes where will all the longs especially in soy complex go ?

Morning Grain Rundown 🌽 Strength building across the board. Corn: Grinding higher (3-week highs). Crude +$5 supportive. Brazil dryness + fertilizer issues tightening outlook. Planting ahead of pace. Beans: Meal-led rally pushing beans near breakout highs. Argentina meal issues + tight supply risk. Strong planting pace, China demand watch. 👉 Breakout watch (bullish bias) Wheat: Exploding higher. KC near 2-year highs on HRW stress + poor conditions. Global production concerns rising. 👉 Bull camp in control (weather-driven) Bottom Line: Weather + global supply tightening = bullish tone Corn steady bid, beans near breakout, wheat leading #MorningGrain #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown 🌽 Grains still trading their own story. Corn: Gave up gains late. Expanding rains = planting delays (not bullish yet). Brazil dry risk building. Beans: Failed breakout → back in range. Planting delays coming. Argentina issues + Brazil currency supportive, but fundamentals weak. 👉 Risk of range low test Wheat: Rebounding on global risks. Black Sea cold + India/EU/Argentina production concerns. Plains damage likely, rains may stabilize. 👉 Underlying support building (KC leads) Bottom Line: No U.S. weather scare yet = capped upside Corn steady, beans stuck, wheat supported #Grains #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown🌽 Crude +$5… grains shrug it off. Markets just aren’t impressed right now: • Headline fatigue (Strait flipping open/closed) • Corn trading its own story (weather + demand) • Funds already cleaned up positioning What matters now: • Real supply disruption • Freight/fertilizer spike • Follow-through, not one-day moves Corn: Flat, strong demand, weather bearish, funds sold but held Beans: No reaction, China shifting to Brazil, range-bound Wheat: Rebound, Plains weather risk, KC leading

🌽Morning Grain Rundown Weather + macro (crude) driving short-term. Big moves likely once this consolidation breaks. Corn: Trying to give-up gains as crude faded. Rain hitting Midwest next 1–2 weeks + Brazil safrinha raised (134 MMT) keeping lid on rallies. Basis firm on slow farmer selling. 👉 No weather premium yet but seasonal odds still favor new highs later. Beans: Failed breakout, reversed lower with bean oil breaking down. Meal holding for now, but demand (China) still a question. NOPA crush tomorrow (record expected), oil stocks near 13-year highs. 👉 Choppy range breakout coming Wheat: Weather bid building (Plains dry, conditions falling), but global supply still heavy. 👉 Bounce limited unless weather worsens. #WalkSquawk

🌽Morning Grain Rundown Corn back testing weekly lows after USDA came in neutral. Slightly higher global stocks + Midwest rains adding pressure. Faster planting pace expectations = bearish near-term. Dollar weak, but weather is the driver right now. Beans steady. USDA unchanged with crush up / exports down. Meal demand strong (record sales) helping support. Still rangebound needs a catalyst to break higher. Wheat weakest of the group. Headed for worst week in months as global stocks rise and Plains rains improve conditions. Funds starting to unwind longs.

🌽Morning Grain Rundown: Corn gapped lower overnight as crude collapsed ~$20 and war premium came out. Market was already showing weakness vs oil. Funds are still long → if gap doesn’t fill, liquidation risk builds. Weaker dollar = some support, but rains + positioning = pressure. Soy complex volatile. Bean oil near limit down after 3-year highs, dragging sentiment. Meal strength helping stabilize beans. China meeting still a key swing factor. Today’s close matters → weak close = risk of fund selling. Wheat hit 1-month lows as war premium fades. Global supply still heavy + Plains rains reducing weather risk. Russia crop estimates rising adds pressure. 👉Big picture: Energy collapse + weather + heavy fund length = near-term downside risk Dollar weakness + longer-term fuel/fertilizer story = underlying support Watch funds + today’s closes. #WalkSquawk

Morning Grain Rundown 🌽🌱 Corn weaker despite crude +$3.50 planting off to a fast start (3% vs 2% avg) + improving Midwest moisture weighing. Beans quiet but bean oil ripping to new highs → vegoil + biofuel story still supporting. Wheat steady-ish with rains coming but conditions still poor vs last year. Big picture: Energy = key driver into tonight Weather improving = near-term pressure Longer-term supply risks still intact Watch crude tonight.. we all know why #WalkSquawk #grains

Oil pushing a potential +$10 daily close… something we basically don’t see Intraday spikes? Sure Closing there? Different story Most of the time → fades into settlement If it holds → that’s not a move… that’s a regime shift This close matters more than the spike #WalkSquawk