WeakConqueror

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WeakConqueror

WeakConqueror

@WeakConqueror

Veni, vidi, weaki

Naruto Sumali Şubat 2024
112 Sinusundan48 Mga Tagasunod
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Giorgio Gori
Giorgio Gori@giorgio_gori·
È incredibile che il governo, in corsa, cambi le regole di #Transizione 5.0 e tagli del 65% il credito di imposta che aveva garantito alle imprese che avessero investito in innovazione. Come si può pensare che le aziende si fidino se gli impegni sottoscritti non valgono nulla?
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WeakConqueror
WeakConqueror@WeakConqueror·
@fthegurus Demography is destiny. All those points can be traced back to the effect on democracy of an aging society
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Fthegurus
Fthegurus@fthegurus·
Really incredible how our governments for the last 2 decades have made everything more difficult for young people: - Lower salaries - High inflation - Taxes on everything - Mortgage rates through the roofs - Enjoying the “Benefits” of living in a diversified culture - High risk of being deployed in Iran and/or Ukraine. - Energy costs soaring (Because of the renewable energy bullshit and the war) When will we elect politicians that actually defend our interests ? #IranWar‌ #Ukraine
Bloomberg@business

US government officials and Wall Street analysis are starting to consdier the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedeted $200 a barrel. bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-…

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CryptoGoos
CryptoGoos@cryptogoos·
🚨BREAKING: A whale has opened a $17,000,000 Oil short position. Liquidation Price: $139
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🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼
🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼@Jkylebass·
After U.S. forces turned China’s most advanced anti-stealth radar—the JY-27A—into little more than lawn art, Xi reportedly ordered the execution of its chief designer, Yang Wei. Engineering with Chinese characteristics…
Taiwan Military@TaiwanMilitary

Reportedly, Yang was probed after 🇨🇳’s JY-series anti-stealth radars sold to 🇻🇪 & 🇮🇷 proved ineffective. 🇨🇳 had used the J-20 as a test target & falsely told Xi the radars could detect 🇺🇸 F-35 & F-22 stealth jets. This raised doubts about the J-20’s claimed stealth capabilities.

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Rheinmetall
Rheinmetall@RheinmetallAG·
We have the utmost respect for the Ukrainian people’s immense efforts in defending themselves against the Russian attack - now for more than four years. Every single woman and man in 🇺🇦 is making an immeasurable contribution. It is to Ukraine’s particular credit that it is fighting highly effectively even with limited resources. The innovative strength and the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people are an inspiration to us. We are grateful to be able to support 🇺🇦 with the resources at our disposal. @AKamyshin
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Colin P. Clarke, Ph.D.
Colin P. Clarke, Ph.D.@ColinPClarke·
Putting aside the question of whether the U.S. should have joined Israel in attacking Iran, one of the hardest parts of watching setbacks with how the war is unfolding is that the entire US NatSec community has wargamed this scenario for decades. We knew the risks & enemy COAs.
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Desmond Shum
Desmond Shum@DesmondShum·
My Simple Rule for Effective Philanthropy: Founder in the Trenches After two decades in philanthropy, here is my straightforward and simple advice: Do not give money to any organization unless the founder is deeply involved in day-to-day operations. Ignore the brand, glamour, and size of the organization. I have paid heavy for this lesson. This realization was reinforced while reading “The Wisdom of Whores: Bureaucrats, Brothels and the Business of AIDS” by Elizabeth Pisani, a British-American epidemiologist, public health consultant, author, and former journalist. Drawing from her extensive experience in HIV/AIDS prevention with organizations such as UNAIDS, the World Health Organization, the World Bank, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a.co/d/04Clxr0g Pisani exposes how NGOs often fail at solving real problems. In her case, it’s about failure of of AIDS prevention 1. Bureaucratic Roadblock
Bureaucracy turned prevention into a spending and reporting exercise. Surging budgets attracted agencies and NGOs more focused on burning money and producing reports than on stopping infections. Success was measured by funds disbursed and procedures followed, not by lives saved. This caused massive misallocation. 2.Ideology from the Left
Left-wing ideology undermined effective prevention by prioritizing empowerment narratives and structural explanations over practical action. It portrayed condom non-use as a result of patriarchal oppression, favoring long-term “dignity” projects instead of immediate, targeted interventions. 3Ideology from the Right
Right-wing ideology, particularly religious conservatism, hindered progress by imposing moral judgments on proven tools. It’s an interesting read. Again, it’s my costly personal lesson in philanthropy - like venture investments, it’s mostly about the founder. First rule - make your judgement on the founders. Second rule - farther the founder is from the trenches, the greater the risk that the organization drifts away from its original purpose. Branding, narrative, prestige of NGOs - doesn’t worth your money.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Dan wrote a good piece, but I see things differently on a few important points. 1. Buyer resistance to smartphone memory price hikes is largely confined to legacy memory like DDR4 — not memory broadly. This distinction matters. It's true that some buyers have recently pushed back on price increases, but the target of that resistance has primarily been legacy memory like DDR4. The market has been behaving rather abnormally of late. At one point, legacy memory like DDR4 was actually trading above DDR5 in price — a genuinely strange phenomenon. That distortion has since moderated as DDR5 prices have risen, but the spike at the time was difficult to explain through normal demand alone. According to industry sources, a significant portion of the DDR4 price surge was attributable to Chinese stockpiling. That's what gave smartphone OEMs the room to respond — by downgrading specs on entry-level devices or trimming production volumes. In other words, there was flexibility on the legacy side. DDR5 is a different story. As I noted in an earlier post, smartphone and PC makers accepted substantial DDR5 price increases in Q1 of this year, and even into Q2. The implication is clear: DDR5 is not a negotiating target right now — it's closer to an essential input that buyers need to secure even at a premium. What's more, flagship products built around DDR5 aren't easy to spec down. At most, a spec freeze is on the table. I've also heard some buyers say they simply can't keep absorbing additional costs on legacy memory. What I failed to account for was that most market participants weren't drawing a clear enough distinction — that this dynamic was specific to legacy — and I didn't anticipate that gap in understanding. 2. Repeating a familiar playbook and adapting to structural change are two different things. Dan portrayed investors who reflexively sell on spot price declines as sophisticated. I'd disagree. Memory companies are no longer operating the way they used to. If anything, they're moving toward a model closer to what TSMC does — building out capacity after securing advance paymets and long-term demand visibility from key customers. Just a few days ago, Korean media reported that Samsung is in discussions to pursue prepayment-based agreements with the likes of Microsoft. And yet the market still treats memory companies as textbook cyclicals. Even as contract structures and demand visibility that resemble TSMC's begin to emerge, the Big 3 trade at valuations that remain absurdly cheap by comparison. Repeating the old playbook in a changed environment isn't sophistication — it's a failure to price in structural change. I'm well aware of the counterargument. LTAs existed in prior cycles, and many were torn up when downturns hit. But the memory companies know that better than anyone. There's no reason to think they don't want TSMC-like valuations. And precisely because of that, the incentive to avoid repeating the old pattern — overcapacity that destroys their own cycle — is far stronger than it's ever been. They're working considerably harder than most people realize to pursue disciplined expansion rather than reflexive overbuilding. It's disappointing to see so many participants still running the same old framework, watching spot prices tick on a screen rather than paying attention to how the industry itself is changing on the ground.
Dan Nystedt@dnystedt

x.com/i/article/2036…

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WeakConqueror
WeakConqueror@WeakConqueror·
@INArteCarloDoss I'm surprised that the regime is holding so well and I'm surprised that US/Israel were caught with their pants down w.r.t. the strait closure and drone warfare.
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KKGB
KKGB@INArteCarloDoss·
I am not predicting that it will, but having followed how everything unfolded since day one, this is a massive mis-priced tail risk. It’s futile to debate inflation vs demand destruction shock, the bottom line is this will hit earnings and sentiment like a hammer. 11/11
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KKGB
KKGB@INArteCarloDoss·
Still to this day, a month after the start of the « excursion », nobody seems to understand how exactly this Israeli devised war is not the one Israel/US thought they will be fighting. The initial month demonstrates that this is morphing into something bigger and longer. 1/11
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shah
shah@shahh·
If you had no information Would you buy this chart? Yes or no
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WeakConqueror
WeakConqueror@WeakConqueror·
@TCommodity Credo che Taiwan e Corea del Sud non avranno problemi a pagare il prezzo maggiorato dell'elio rispetto ad altri player
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Gianclaudio Torlizzi
Gianclaudio Torlizzi@TCommodity·
La guerra in Iran stringe il cappio sull’elio e rischia di fermare il mercato dei semiconduttori C’è un effetto collaterale della guerra in Iran: la crisi dell’elio. Un gas che non fa notizia finché non manca, ma la cui assenza può bloccare la produzione di semiconduttori, fermare le risonanze magnetiche e inceppare la catena globale dell’elettronica avanzata. Il nodo centrale è Ras Laffan. Il complesso di QatarEnergy, tra i più grandi impianti industriali al mondo, produce circa un quinto del GNL globale e un terzo dell’elio mondiale. Gli attacchi con droni iraniani del 2 marzo ne hanno imposto lo spegnimento. Settimane dopo, un attacco missilistico balistico ha causato danni ingenti alla struttura. Le riparazioni richiederanno anni, con una riduzione stimata del 14% delle esportazioni annue di elio del Qatar a conflitto concluso. La società ha dichiarato forza maggiore il 4 marzo, sospendendo i contratti in essere. Il prezzo spot dell’elio è già salito di circa il 25% da inizio anno sui mercati asiatici, il doppio rispetto all’incremento registrato in Europa e negli Stati Uniti. Ma il dato spot, che copre solo il 2% del mercato totale, anticipa ciò che si propagherà sui contratti a lungo termine man mano che le consegne in transito si esauriranno. Le implicazioni industriali sono immediate. I produttori di semiconduttori utilizzano l’elio per raffreddare i wafer durante il processo di incisione, e non esiste un sostituto tecnicamente praticabile. Non si tratta di un ingrediente marginale: è un vincolo fisico di processo. Le principali applicazioni dell’elio per domanda — elettronica al 25%, medicale al 23%, industriale al 18% — disegnano una mappa di vulnerabilità che attraversa orizzontalmente l’economia globale. I Paesi più esposti sono Corea del Sud e Taiwan. Seul importa circa il 65% del suo elio dal Qatar e il 70% del petrolio dal Medio Oriente, quasi tutto in transito per Hormuz. Un doppio vincolo di approvvigionamento per un paese da cui dipende l’80% della produzione mondiale di chip HBM e quasi il 70% delle DRAM globali, con Samsung e SK Hynix come protagonisti. A Taiwan, TSMC importa il 95% dell’energia e quasi tutto l’elio, con circa il 70% proveniente da Qatar e Medio Oriente. Come se non bastasse, la Corea del Sud importa il 90% del bromo, materiale essenziale nella formazione dei circuiti, da Israele. Gli indici azionari di Seul e Taipei riflettono questa vulnerabilità: il MSCI Corea del Sud è ancora su del 38% da inizio anno, ma lontano dai massimi di febbraio quando segnava +57,7%; il MSCI Taiwan guadagna il 16,7%, contro un picco di +24,8%. Chi ne trae vantaggio sono i produttori americani. Gli Stati Uniti sono il primo produttore mondiale di elio, davanti a Qatar, Algeria e Russia. Air Products, Linde ed ExxonMobil si trovano in una posizione di forza strutturale che la guerra ha ulteriormente consolidato. Per concludere: l’Iran non ha colpito solo gas, petrolio e fertilizzanti, ha colpito l’elio, e con esso la spina dorsale produttiva dell’elettronica globale. Se Ras Laffan non riparte, la prossima crisi dei semiconduttori non nascerà da una guerra commerciale sui dazi, ma da un gas invisibile che nessuno aveva messo in bilancio.
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WeakConqueror
WeakConqueror@WeakConqueror·
@Pressman2040 Sure the pentagon forgot the heat of the exhaust 🤣 Blocked for breaking my bullshit-o-meter
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PATRIOTIC SOJA ($TSIR-MUNCHAN)
PATRIOTIC SOJA ($TSIR-MUNCHAN)@Pressman2040·
There's an old saying that whatever a person builds, there's a hole that will destroy it. For years, America has sold the world the idea that the F-35 Lightning II aircraft is invisible (Stealth). They spent $400 billion developing technology that deceives Radar by using Geometric Angles that scatter Electromagnetic waves. On every Radar, this massive aircraft appears like a Golf Ball, a ball that's hit by horses. But on the day this plane entered Iranian airspace in March 2026, something happened that changed the history of modern warfare. Thermodynamics (physics) showed the world that even if you can hide your body, you can't hide your heat. I'm reiterating that physics is real. The Pentagon's big mistake was forgetting that the engine propelling the aircraft at supersonic speeds generates a lot of heat. Iran didn't waste time looking for the plane on Radar; they switched to Infrared Search and Track (IRST). I'm also encouraging parents to push their kids, especially girls, to study physics. To this device, the aircraft America is so proud of didn't appear like a Golf Ball or anything else; it was like a boiling pot in the middle of the night. Physics shows that anything hot emits Infrared light. Iran exploited this mistake using cheap thermal sensors to detect the world's most expensive aircraft and even managed to shoot it down. This isn't just a loss of one plane; it's a global political disaster, indeed a disaster. Iran successfully captured the F-35's Thermal Signature and is sharing it with Moscow and Beijing. This means any defense system America built over 30 years collapsed overnight. Now, any Russian or Chinese defense system can detect the F-35 from a distance by tracking its heat signature, without even looking at Radar. This is every air force's worst nightmare: when your billion-dollar aircraft becomes useless against a $10,000 technology. The biggest loss is the psychological impact on pilots (The Human Element). Sure, software can be fixed, paint can be changed, but you can't erase fear from a pilot's heart. Now every F-35 pilot knows they're being watched. Where they once relied on being unseen, they'll now hesitate. This hesitation kills bravery and replaces skill with fear. The Stealth myth is dead, and the world of war has entered a new chapter where heat will be the cause of great armies' downfall. The lesson is: never rely 100% on human-made things, because every structure has a backdoor. Physics doesn't lie; even if you blindfold the world, you can't erase the footprint you leave behind. Nothing lasts forever....... - Eng Viglo
PATRIOTIC SOJA ($TSIR-MUNCHAN) tweet mediaPATRIOTIC SOJA ($TSIR-MUNCHAN) tweet media
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Christophe Barraud🛢🐳
Christophe Barraud🛢🐳@C_Barraud·
🇺🇸 #Inflation (CPI) swaps point to a peak in Q2 before a slowdown later this year. On average, 2026 U.S. CPI should reach ~3.3% (v 2.7% in 2025). ➡ Pricing indicates that traders are assigning a high probability to a ceasefire occurring by by end of June (in line with betting markets). ➡ Additionally, as previously mentioned, shelter CPI is expected to continue normalizing in the coming months. x.com/C_Barraud/stat…
Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 tweet mediaChristophe Barraud🛢🐳 tweet media
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Zephyr
Zephyr@zephyr_z9·
Looks like the shortage has forced Samsung to bring their latest NAND tech to the Xi'an plant as well Initially, they didn't plan to introduce V9 (286 layer) in Xi'an so soon
Jukan@jukan05

Samsung Completes 236-Layer 8th-Gen NAND Transition at China Xi'an Plant — 9th Gen Also Set to Operate This Year Samsung Electronics has completed the first phase of its leading-edge process transition at its NAND flash memory plant in Xi'an, China. The company has fully replaced its legacy 128-layer NAND with next-generation 236-layer products and is now in mass production, according to industry sources. A transition to the latest 286-layer NAND is also expected to be completed within the year, with full-scale operations to follow — signaling that Samsung's Xi'an facility, a core NAND production hub, is accelerating its competitive repositioning. According to industry sources on the 29th, Samsung's Xi'an plant recently commenced mass production of 236-layer 8th-generation NAND (V8). The process conversion, which began in 2024, has now been finalized — concluding production of the legacy 128-layer 6th-generation (V6) NAND and marking Samsung's full entry into the 200-layer-plus era. In NAND flash, which achieves capacity by stacking cells vertically, a higher layer count translates directly to greater storage density. Xi'an had long been producing 128-layer product, but as demand for legacy nodes steadily declined, the transition to next-generation technology became necessary. The move reflects the diminishing competitiveness of older products. China's largest NAND manufacturer, YMTC, has already reached 294-layer production in mass volume, making it increasingly difficult to fend off Chinese competition with sub-200-layer offerings. "The tightening restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment imports into China amid the U.S.-China tech conflict likely accelerated Samsung's push to complete the transition," said one industry official. The U.S. has imposed export controls on advanced American-made equipment to curb China's semiconductor ambitions. Samsung has been granted Validated End-User (VEU) status, exempting it from certain restrictions — but since late last year, the company has been required to renew U.S. government approval on an annual basis. The surge in AI infrastructure investment has also served as a tailwind for the node transition. Rapidly growing demand for enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD) has raised the bar for high-performance NAND. Samsung's near-term plan is to shift Xi'an's primary output from V6 to V8, consolidating its competitive position. In parallel, Xi'an Plant 2 (X2) is slated for a transition to 286-layer 9th-generation (V9) NAND, maximizing next-generation production capacity. V9 represents Samsung's most current product in mass production. The company plans to complete the transition and commence volume output within this year. Xi'an accounts for approximately 40% of Samsung's total NAND output. The ongoing process conversions are expected to meaningfully expand the facility's capacity for V8 and V9 production. The transition is also seen as laying the groundwork for accelerating development of 10th-generation NAND (V10), estimated to exceed 400 layers. Samsung is currently mass-producing V9 at its Pyeongtaek campus while preparing for V10 production there as well. With a stable V8/V9 production regime now established in Xi'an, Samsung is expected to fast-track V10 and subsequent next-generation NAND readiness at its domestic facilities. A Samsung Electronics spokesperson stated: "We cannot confirm specific product production timelines," adding, "our commitment to continuously advancing next-generation NAND transitions and further strengthening our leading-edge process portfolio remains unchanged."

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Tuklasin

@fthegurus @AKamyshin @INArteCarloDoss @gianlucac1bis @shahh @TCommodity @elonmusk @BarackObama