Derek Thompson

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Derek Thompson

Derek Thompson

@DKThomp

Sign up for my new newsletter! (Link below) Also: Co-author of Abundance, host of Plain English, and contributing writer at The Atlantic.

Washington, D.C. Sumali Mayıs 2009
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
Some personal news. Today, I’m leaving The Atlantic after almost 17 years and moving my writing to Substack. It would be convenient, for the purposes of crafting an exciting departure announcement, to have a dramatic exit story: a fight, a grievance, a shouting match with an editor that ended with me hurling a bunch of leather-backed Thoreau volumes across the open-plan office. That is not the case here. I love The Atlantic, and I'll remain a contributing writer there. But after almost two decades at one publication, I wanted to write for myself. The things I've published that I'm most proud of—whether it was the original abundance agenda essay, or my piece on workism—emerged from a very personal expression of frustration, or confusion, or curiosity. I want to know what my thinking and writing is like if I lean into a more independent and personal writing life. That's brought me to Substack, which is already home to an astonishing share of my overall reading. I'm excited to join their community and excited to build my own. The name of the newsletter should be easy to remember: Derek Thompson. The newsletter will have three main pillars 1. Abundance 2. The frontier of science and technology—GLP1s, AI, biotech, energy breakthroughs—covered in a way that’s both curious and skeptical 3. The anti-social century & the social crises of anxiety and aloneness Thanks to The Atlantic for 16.8 incredible years and thanks to everybody who follows me across the river. - dt
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
@alantomusiak why do you think pks+ e coli, or its negative effects, would be more prevalent among young ppl today? does that take us right back to obesity and environment or are there other drivers?
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Alan Tomusiak
Alan Tomusiak@alantomusiak·
After a long hiatus, I'm back to writing - starting with a very topical piece. Why are colorectal cancer rates spiking in the young? The usual answers are true: changes in diet, exercise, environment. But there's also a much more direct player involved
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Governor JB Pritzker
Governor JB Pritzker@GovPritzker·
It's time to build, Illinois.
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McKay Coppins
McKay Coppins@mckaycoppins·
Loved this conversation with @DKThomp, one of the best in the business. Even if you've already read my gambling piece or heard me talk about it in other interviews, I think you'll find this one interesting.
Derek Thompson@DKThomp

New pod: HOW AMERICA TURNED INTO ONE BIG FAT CASINO I talked to @mckaycoppins about sports gambling, war betting, and the fast-motion casino-ification of American life Feat. - Behind the sports leagues' remarkable 180: In 2012, NBA commissioner David Stern personally confronted and threatened Chris Christie for trying to legalize sports betting. Fourteen years later, it is not humanly possible to watch or follow the NBA without making contact with gambling content. - @natesilver's Gambling 101: Online betting might be fun, but it's not "fair": There is an inverse relationship between the most popular bets and the smartest bets; 90+% of bettors lose money over time and the best bettors are limited and even kicked off sites. So the only way to really make money doing this long-term is to somehow manage to consistently belong to something like the 98th percentile of gamblers. - Vice vs wisdom: Sports gambling really is fun. It's also a vice with a significant tail-risk of addiction and financial crisis. Wisdom is the ability to identify, communicate, and legislate limits to legal vices—and we are miles from wise policy on gambling today. - The darkest timeline: Prediction markets really are useful ... but the fact that anonymous accounts can make millions of dollars from forecasting specific war outcomes is absurd and incentives are horrendous. Dystopias aren't just bad ideas taken to illogical extremes; they are often reasonable ideas taken to dangerous places. War profiteering on Polymarket is exactly that kind of dystopia. open.spotify.com/episode/0KJxKz…

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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
You and I and like 30 other people are highly attuned to what “The Groups” means as a critique of intra-Dem politics, but I think the general message of 1. I don’t support Biden’s (unpopular in Texas!) immigration policy; and 2. We should listen to what Texas wants for Texas, not want DC bureaucrats want for Texas is a perfectly fine message for Texas
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Barak Ravid
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid·
🚨U.S. to allow Iran to get ~14 billion dollars (!!!) in oil revenue 🚨This is a huge financial concession to Iran by the U.S. 🚨It is the first time U.S. is buying Iranian oil since 1996 🚨It's all happening in the middle of a war against...Iran
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent

Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and through President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, we are winning this critical fight at an even faster pace than anticipated. In response to Iran’s terrorist attacks against global energy infrastructure, the Trump Administration will continue to deploy America’s economic and military might to maximize the flow of energy to the world, strengthen global supply, and seek to ensure market stability. Today, the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea. At present, sanctioned Iranian oil is being hoarded by China on the cheap. By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury. This temporary, short-term authorization is strictly limited to oil that is already in transit and does not allow new purchases or production. Further, Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system. So far, the Trump Administration has been working to bring around 440 million additional barrels of oil to the global market, undercutting Iran’s ability to leverage its disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, strengthening energy security and lowering fuel costs. Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans – because there is no prosperity without security.

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Kyle Potter
Kyle Potter@kpottermn·
NEW: In a letter to employees, United CEO Scott Kirby says the airline is prepping for oil to hit $175/barrel & “doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.” United is shaving 3% of off-peak flights - “think redeyes, Tues/Wed/Sat flying” - this spring & summer.
Kyle Potter tweet mediaKyle Potter tweet media
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Reuben Rodriguez
Reuben Rodriguez@ReubenR80027912·
@DKThomp To keep my newfound optimist streak: Semaglutide is only ONE (early) GLP-1 antagonist. There are many many more being developed that diff so…still hope
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McKay Coppins
McKay Coppins@mckaycoppins·
Last year, I met a Mexican athlete who told me an incredible story—that he’d been kidnapped in 2023 and forced to compete for his life in a secret tournament of cartels. Once I started reporting, the story only got more surreal. For the May issue: theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/…
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
@senderowiczj I think it’s comparable in exactly the way I compared them and it’s not comparable in the ways I don’t compare them
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jeremysenderowicz
jeremysenderowicz@senderowiczj·
@DKThomp Do you honestly think the US now in Iran is in a comparable position to Russia in Ukraine?
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
It’s amazing to me how many resources must be devoted to geopolitical strategy, intelligence gathering, and war planning in the US and Russia; and yet the two most high-profile wars of the last five years involve a military superpower attempting a blitzkrieg decapitation of an opponent and appearing shocked and stunned and flummoxed when the attacked adversary doesn’t surrender but actually fights back
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
Two weeks ago, Brent oil futures were in the 80s; the president was telling reporters that the war was "very complete" and that Iran was begging to negotiate; and WH defenders were claiming the war was "over" and accusing commodity analysts of being little bedwetting babies. Today's Brent is well over 100, LNG and other commodities are doing even worse, and the Pentagon is requesting $200 billion to wrap things up. Sure, it's still early. I guess anything can happen in the next 24 hours. But here and now, the bedwetters were the prophets.
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
New pod: HOW AMERICA TURNED INTO ONE BIG FAT CASINO I talked to @mckaycoppins about sports gambling, war betting, and the fast-motion casino-ification of American life Feat. - Behind the sports leagues' remarkable 180: In 2012, NBA commissioner David Stern personally confronted and threatened Chris Christie for trying to legalize sports betting. Fourteen years later, it is not humanly possible to watch or follow the NBA without making contact with gambling content. - @natesilver's Gambling 101: Online betting might be fun, but it's not "fair": There is an inverse relationship between the most popular bets and the smartest bets; 90+% of bettors lose money over time and the best bettors are limited and even kicked off sites. So the only way to really make money doing this long-term is to somehow manage to consistently belong to something like the 98th percentile of gamblers. - Vice vs wisdom: Sports gambling really is fun. It's also a vice with a significant tail-risk of addiction and financial crisis. Wisdom is the ability to identify, communicate, and legislate limits to legal vices—and we are miles from wise policy on gambling today. - The darkest timeline: Prediction markets really are useful ... but the fact that anonymous accounts can make millions of dollars from forecasting specific war outcomes is absurd and incentives are horrendous. Dystopias aren't just bad ideas taken to illogical extremes; they are often reasonable ideas taken to dangerous places. War profiteering on Polymarket is exactly that kind of dystopia. open.spotify.com/episode/0KJxKz…
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
@domineeringDom There is widespread reporting that Trump thought this war would be quick and easy. His supporters said it would end in less than a week!
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Benjamin Domenech
Benjamin Domenech@bdomenech·
@DKThomp the general estimate is that nearly 60 percent of office workers gamble on March Madness, and a VegasInsider survey found the average worker who participates spends nearly $100 on brackets. This dwarfs online betting. Why is this not factored into the conversation?
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Benjamin Domenech
Benjamin Domenech@bdomenech·
@DKThomp haven't listened yet but why is media coverage so concentrated on legal betting? Is it just normies learning about a world they don't grok? This year's Super Bowl had $1.76B in legal (AGA, not counting prediction markets) and $5.5B illegal (GCI, not counting offline).
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
America’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia under Trump has been: 1. Slap them with the some of the highest tariff rates in the world 2. Launch Section 301 investigations of their trade practices 3. Create a global energy and commodities crisis that singles them out for special pain bc of the region’s reliance on Strait of Hormuz The scenario below is dark, dark, dark … but we have basically waged slow-motion economic warfare against our allies in one of the most important regions in the world. (via @alexbhturnbull)
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