G.Fan

100 SHIPS TRAPPED WITH NO ESCAPE: KUEHNE + NAGEL EXEC REVEALS THE OIL BULL CASE A senior executive at Kuehne + Nagel just delivered a ground-level briefing that cuts straight through the headlines. Michael Aldwell lays out the unfiltered reality of the Strait of Hormuz crisis with numbers and details that matter for energy markets. His assessment shows why this disruption is built to deliver sustained support for oil prices rather than a quick return to normal. THE HORMUZ GROUND TRUTH ➡️ Over 100 vessels remain trapped inside the upper Gulf with no evacuation route available yet. ➡️ The landbridge workaround is only moving roughly one third of normal cargo volumes for the UAE and GCC region. ➡️ Jebel Ali’s massive 15 to 16 million TEU capacity sits effectively offline while smaller ports on the Gulf of Oman struggle to fill the gap. THE DELAY AND COST SURGE ➡️ Cargo now faces 9 to 15 day delays moving from Red Sea ports into the upper Gulf. ➡️ Routes from the Gulf of Oman add another 4 to 7 days of extra transit time. ➡️ Sea freight costs into the area have risen substantially as the entire network fights to keep goods flowing. THE NO SHORT-TERM FIX WARNING ➡️ There is no visible light at the end of the tunnel for a quick reopening of Hormuz to full traffic. ➡️ The industry is prioritizing food and medicine yet commercial backlogs keep growing. ➡️ Trapped ships are being repurposed as internal feeders but the capacity shortfall stays massive. KUEHNE + NAGEL IS OPPOSED TO CUSTOMS FEES ➡️ Michael says that a proposed one dollar per barrel toll on oil is rejected outright by the industry on principle. ➡️ Shippers are already absorbing far higher costs through landbridge alternatives so money is not the real barrier. ➡️ True resolution requires full freedom of navigation restored without paying tribute to any sovereign power. THE BOTTOM LINE Michael from Kuehne + Nagel confirms the Hormuz crisis is delivering real and lasting supply chain friction with no fast exit in sight creating a realistic bullish floor for oil as critical energy routes stay constrained and costs remain elevated. This is the sound of a vital chokepoint enforcing higher prices through pure logistics reality. #OilBullish #HormuzCrisis #SupplyChain #KuehneNagel #OilPrices #EnergyTightness #ShippingDisruption

7.1 MB/D OIL SHORTFALL BY MID-JULY: THE $150 EXPLOSION MARKETS ARE IGNORING R. Brooks and B. Harris have just released a new article on the timing of the impending crude crisis. The Strait of Hormuz closure has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history with nearly 20 percent of global supply gone overnight. Yet prices remain below 2022 highs because of a dangerous race between permanent fixes and temporary stockpiles that is about to end badly. THE STRUCTURAL LIFELINES ➡️ Saudi Arabia and the UAE now push an extra 5.7 million barrels per day through pipelines that bypass the strait entirely. ➡️ A lingering pre-war global surplus of 0.7 mb/d provides additional permanent relief that markets can count on forever. ➡️ Together these structural forces permanently replace 6.4 million barrels of the lost Hormuz flow. THE PRE-WAR WARNING ➡️ The IEA had already flagged the global imbalance as an “untenable surplus.” ➡️ Their stark warning that “something has to give” now carries terrifying new weight. THE TEMPORARY BUFFERS VANISHING ➡️ IEA emergency releases of 2.5 million barrels daily will be fully depleted by July 9. ➡️ Russian floating storage that peaked near 90 million barrels runs dry by the end of April. ➡️ Iranian floating stocks of 60 million barrels disappear by the end of May. ➡️ By mid-July the market faces the raw 7.1 million barrel daily shortfall with every temporary crutch gone. THE PRICE PATH AHEAD ➡️ Global oil prices have already moved in lockstep with shifting views on how long the strait stays closed. ➡️ The longer the impasse drags on the deeper the supply hole becomes. ➡️ An expected 10 percent supply decline by June points to Brent crude at 120 dollars a barrel. ➡️ Once temporary buffers are exhausted prices could surge toward 150 dollars according to historical elasticities. THE BOTTOM LINE Temporary buffers have bought the world a few months of relative calm but they are almost gone. What comes next is a structural supply deficit large enough to reshape global energy markets and push economies toward recession. The calm is ending and the real oil storm is about to begin. HT: @robin_j_brooks @econ_harris #OilPrices #HormuzClosure #EnergyShock #SupplyDeficit #OilTo150 #GlobalRecession #MarketAlert

Neil Chapman, SVP of Exxon this morning at the Sanford Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference perhaps going a little off corporate script:

Something I think people don't fully understand is that global oil inventories don't need to hit zero to cause massive price havoc. If the system dips below ~7 billion barrels, circulation seizes up and the energy system fails. Markets will push up prices to avert systemic failure *before* that happens. Trump's war brought us from >8 billion barrels in Feb to ~7.6 billion today. At these prices, if Hormuz stays closed into September, we'd be at ~6.8 billion barrels -- which is below critical levels. Thus, oil prices will spike *before* September to destroy demand and keep inventories intact. That level of spike -- to $150 or even $200/barrel -- will cause "severe economic contraction" in 3Q2026 according to Rapidan, a top-notch shop. In other words, if Trump doesn't make concessions to reopen Hormuz imminently -- and perhaps even if he does! -- we're looking at a global recession. cnb.cx/4eLgoBz

Wow. Huge jump in refinery throughput to 16.971 million b/d. EIA reported -12.4 million bbls for crude. SPR release was 9.1 million bbls. Commercial crude storage declined 3.3 million bbls. Larger than expected draw came from the sizable increase in throughput. Gasoline declined 2.6 million bbls and distillate declined 2.1 million bbls. Total oil inventory draw of 17.4 million bbls. Let the BACD continue.

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran's top security parliamentarian lays out four non-negotiable red lines: -Right to enrich uranium -Possession of enriched uranium -Authority over the Strait of Hormuz -Removal of sanctions "Trump alternates between issuing threats and appealing for an agreement. It is obvious he is seeking a way out of this strategic deadlock." These are the same four demands Iran had before the first bomb dropped. Trump wants the uranium gone. Iran says they're keeping it. Trump says no tolls. Iran says the Strait is theirs. Trump says sanctions stay until a deal is signed. Iran says they come off as part of the deal. Every one of these four points is still unresolved. Source: @Ebrahimazizi33

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 Has Washington officially lost its grip on the Gulf? Sami Hamdi reveals that continuous U.S. failure to rein in Israeli territorial expansion is driving long-time allies into the arms of Beijing. Sami argued that the Saudi Crown Prince is now forced to prioritize his own survival over U.S. demands. Sami's view, an irreversible pivot toward Chinese technology and protection has already begun. @Salhachimi

🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 The looming peace deal between the U.S. and Iran isn't being held back by Tehran. Sami Hamdi explains that while Trump is willing to make major concessions on the nuclear issue, he's doing nothing to stop Israel from violating regional ceasefires. Netanyahu is exploiting this weak stance by continuing to push into southern Lebanon, effectively throwing a wrench into any diplomatic progress. As long as Washington allows Israel to dictate its foreign policy, Sami believes a stable resolution in the Middle East remains completely out of reach. @Salhachimi

🚨🇺🇸🇸🇦 An irreversible shift is happening in the Middle East. Sami Hamdi breaks down how Trump is risking crucial U.S. alliances by demanding Gulf states normalize ties with Israel to promote an Iranian peace deal. Instead of falling into line, allies like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are outright refusing to accept this compromise. Sami argued this unprecedented diplomatic overreach is severely damaging U.S. influence in the region, leaving major powers questioning the real worth of Washington's security umbrella. @Salhachimi

Everyone is watching uranium enrichment and missile limitations But the real Iran deal may now be about something far more important: The price of oil If markets conclude the Gulf has become permanently dangerous — even without a full Hormuz closure — then Iran may have already achieved a major strategic victory My new piece: “The Price of Oil Is the Real Iran Deal” Explains why and how negotiations should now focus like a laser on energy stability At Escalation Trap substack

🛑 Indicators of China's demand for petroleum have dropped from more than a 40% decline in imports of crude oil from 11.5 million barrels per day in February to an average of below seven million barrels per day in May - the steepest reduction in refining activity in the country since its policy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic four years ago, he said. Yet, mobility indicators show little sign of an actual collapse in demand, with flights and traffic remaining at their regular levels. 🛑 "This indicates that China is likely drawing statistically invisible inventories of both crude and refined products to sustain demand," Johnston wrote. This doesn't count as "true demand destruction," but temporary relief in the supply chain, like when Japan and the U.S. released reserves from their strategic stockpiles.

Just before oil rose 100%, I posted this. What we've seen so far is just the start.

The vociferous Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler, who in one page captures the tweet-driven mental exhaustion many of us are experiencing:

Let's ignore the additional sea mine emplacing yesterday and just go with it..."the days away" peace deal is signed and the Strait is going to "open." What is the most bearish scenario for oil??? 🛢️the most optimistic scenario floated is the Strait will gradually begin to open in 30 days. That takes us to ~July 1st. By then, we will have forfeited ~1.4BN barrels of production 🛢️Sultan Al-Jaber of UAE last week said it would take at least 4 months to return to 80% of normal supply. This suggests ~585MM barrels of additional forfeiture amounting to a staggering 2BN barrels of cumulative losses, and that is now the likely best-case scenario 🛢️We need to assume no damage to productive capacity from fields forcibly shut-in while the workers were dodging drones and cruise missiles. Iraq most at risk. Large oilfield service co. speculating >5% of total shut-ins at risk = ~700,000bbl/d potential losses. Assume zero. 🛢️We need to assume that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are okay paying an "environmental tax" for SofH access to the IRGC who for the past 88 days have been directly attacking them, otherwise we cannot go back to pre-war levels and workarounds are not enough to offset this loss of flow.

One injection, 62% lower LDL - permanently. Gene editing for cholesterol is here. .@cremieuxrecueil is correct. Besides GLP-1 antagonist like Ozempic or, more recently, Retatrutide, this is probably the next breakthrough that is almost impossible to put into words. Verve Therapeutics (Eli Lilly) just published Phase 1 results for VERVE-102 in the NEJM. It's a single-infusion base-editing therapy that inactivates PCSK9 in the liver. At the highest dose, PCSK9 dropped 88% and LDL cholesterol fell 62%. Reductions held for at least a year. 35 patients with familial hypercholesterolemia or premature coronary artery disease. No dose-limiting toxicities. Main side effects: mild infusion reactions and transient liver enzyme elevations. Still Phase 1, still small, no cardiovascular outcome data yet. But the proof of concept for permanent, one-shot LDL reduction via gene editing is real. This is an absolute game changer and im not exaggerting. Elevated LDL cholesterol is responsible for an estimated 4.4 million deaths every year worldwide and remains the single biggest modifiable driver of cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of death globally.

Eli Lilly has done it. They've gone and made what seems to be a powerful, permanent gene therapy for LDL cholesterol. That means they'll be able to effectively prevent most heart disease with a single infusion!

We just finished a deep dive on every quality compounder we could find. We landed on 2 names NOBODY is talking about right now. Both are spin-offs of one of the most successful capital allocators of the last 30 years. Both are down ~50% from their highs. Here they are: TOI.V Topicus. Pan-European vertical software business. Mission-critical software for government, healthcare, education, and financial verticals across 26 countries. Q1 revenue up 23% year over year. Recurring revenue accelerating. Cash conversion still elite. Trading around CAD 96, down roughly 50% from the highs. LMN.V Lumine. Global communications and media software. BSS, OSS, billing, and network software for telcos and media companies. Sticky high-margin contracts. Massive consolidation runway in a fragmented industry. Trading around CAD 20 after a brutal pullback. The playbook is identical to Constellation Software. Decentralized. Buy and hold forever. Relentless M&A funded entirely by cash flow. Normalized multiples are now in the low to mid teens on cash flow. Well below their historical averages. Well below private market comps for the same kind of business. The software selloff created the setup, but the fundamentals never changed. We're a team of 8 with one goal. To help you spot truly great stocks at the earliest possible stage. Turn on notifications and follow us. It's absolutely crucial not to miss the alerts. There will be a lot of people who regret not following us.

6. Most of your limits were installed by someone else. You’re living under rules that aren’t yours. 7. Every argument in a relationship is just two wounded kids defending old fears inside grown-up bodies.