@PharmD_KS Not sure what to make other than opex nonsense saved it bc it was going lower
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ftrader
8.6K posts
@CyclesFan Think the fact it didn’t make a new high might be similar to that Jan 28 retest of ath maybe? But this futures pump in globex is something
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$QQQ - The gap was filled today and it closed below the 20 day MA. The last time QQQ had a 3% up day, gapped above the 20 day MA, and 2 days later the gap was filled was on November 9, 2018(see below). Eventually, that turned into a 20% crash.
x.com/CyclesFan/stat…
CyclesFan@CyclesFan
$QQQ - There were 7 big gaps above the 20 day MA since November 2022 and in none of them the gap was even partially filled the next day like it was today. It will be interesting to see if the gap is entirely filled tomorrow, but more importantly if it holds above the 20 day MA.
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@dampedspring Seems like for opex it can’t be just straight up till close. Would think there’s some big moves in last hour or two or they gone for wknd and machines will close it out
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Another stall after a gap. That's the 25BN of rebalance buying getting front run.
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@PharmD_KS Guess it went back to poc in nq so now let’s see what’s next
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Has the SHAPE of a P, but did not FORM in the manner of a P. Very important distinction to me.
In this case there simply wasn’t time to fill out volume but the P CERTAINLY didn’t form as the result of a short covering rally / forced buying.
It does make things more difficult for tomorrow tbh and I’m giving it a mean stare right now
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Yesterday's low with the big oof.
PharmD_KS@PharmD_KS
This current low a bit of a "must hold" broadly and bulls need to reclaim 7375-7577 and ultimately yesterday's low.
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@Drew_Dat9 @PharmD_KS Maybe they want to expire the m contract at 7500
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@PharmD_KS @ftraderft So a P profile that formed "backwards", it's the same shape but shouldn't trade the same way. Seems to me then that barring any true violence, maybe seeing a preggo belly appear on this P to end the week, and we make a decision off that distro next? Maybe 36-52ish
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@dampedspring Nice trade already. Seems they closed below the 20sma to panic some and with long wknd will crush vol tmrw
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We took this hawkish turn to deploy half our 28% cash into DS global beta on the close. While equities still look very unattractive (but also in a bubble) we bought some anyway but that's because bonds, commodities and gold have gotten quite a bit better priced. Overall still underinvested and overweight cash relative to our conservative risk target. See pinned tweet for more information about DS services.
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@PharmD_KS No liquidity and just jumpy this nq. 8k contracts moving it 150 pts
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@PharmD_KS And this 140 pt move higher from the bell. Seems suspect the last half hour and retracting it back mostly. All this and nq only down 200 now or 300 at close. Wierd stuff
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@paxtrader777 It filled the Friday close gap and that’s what matters
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ES fills the rollover gap at 7461 and NQ fills at 29760.
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Ah dudes. Fading the equity rally given the wall of leveraged ETF inelastic buying that the gap has built up is not smart. Chill till 4:00 degens
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