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🚨Materiality Check: The challenges of investing in Anthropic/Claude
@AnthropicAI and @claudeai have been making headlines for their new models that feature advanced co-work abilities.
You as an investor may be asking: How can I get exposure to this great company, even though they are private?
Two massive public companies have significant stakes in Anthropic: $GOOGL and $AMZN.
The problem, though, is accounting rules allow for these companies to omit disclosure of both their ownership percentage in Anthropic, and the exact carrying value of the investment on their balance sheet.
This makes it impossible for investors to know both the piece of Anthropic that they would get in a potential investment, and how much value each of the companies stands to gain upon an expected $350 billion IPO.
Amazon owns anywhere from 7.8% to 19% of Anthropic depending on how much they have been diluted and how much gain they have already recognized (this is how investors are forced to calculate ownership percentage). That's anywhere from $27-67 billion -- a massive range.
We know that Google owns 14% of Anthropic, but not because they mention it in any financial reports. Instead, because it was revealed in the legal filings of an antitrust case.
Still, per our last post on Google, they only listed roughly $38 billion in non-marketable securities in last year's annual report, and have not disclosed exactly how much gain they have recognized on each of their investments.
This makes it very hard to know how much of Anthropic's rise is priced in, which might be important for investors who are specifically looking to get a piece of the Anthropic pie.
At IPO, Google's investment would be worth an estimated $49 billion.
This is information that investor's should have easy access to -- forcing them to make complex calculations and guesswork is absurd.
These investments are material and they should be treated as such!
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