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@multifolio

Building in all kind of directions.

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Multi@multifolio·
@gnb_trades They didn’t buy back a single share in Q1 though, lol. But yeah, it’s not terrible. $XFY looks better on some metrics and worse on others.
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gnb
gnb@gnb_trades·
$JFIN earnings solid. Q1 revenue came in at $109.7M, repeat borrowers increased to 76.3% (vs 71.9% last year), 90+ day delinquency stayed low at 2.25%, and the company has now repurchased $30.4M of stock while extending its buyback. Nice to see the focus on asset quality.
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Multi@multifolio·
New feature: Video Title Answer 🎯 Tried it on a 30-min desktop speaker review and got straight to the point and found the speakers I wanted, and moved on. yt-summary.com/title-answer/b…
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Paulo Santos
Paulo Santos@ThinkFinance999·
One more Deepseek V4 Pro customer 😁😁 (I'll keep the coding on Cursor, but the production system will use Deepseek V4 Pro instead)
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goldenlabubuwatch
goldenlabubuwatch@pandawatch88·
Meituan numbers out. Quarter EBIT loss significantly reduced, but man no one burns money like a Chinese internet entrepreneur: LTM EBIT swung from positive USD 5.5bn in March 2025 to negative USD 6.7bn today. That's USD 12bn of freebies to customers. Hope you enjoyed your free bubble tea, happily sipping creative destruction. Wang funded it all with debt, around USD 8bn. No one has any idea how the economics of this business look like a year from now, and frankly it is not really up to Meituan either, but BABA and Bytedance. Trading at 10x EV/peakEBIT, which may be fair for a business that doesn't set prices.
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Multi@multifolio·
@MoatOwl + shopee is allowed to operate in markets where Temu is blocked from entering, e.g. Vietnam.
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Gavin Tan
Gavin Tan@MoatOwl·
Friends pointed out yesterday that you can buy identical Shopee $SE items on Temu $PDD for 20-30% cheaper. Temu ships direct from China (7-14 days). Shopee delivers in 1-2 days with buyer protection and local seller recourse. $SE has spent years building a strong homegrown logistics network. The question is: in a price sensitive region like SE Asia, how many customers will choose speed over price?
Gavin Tan@MoatOwl

$SE Sea Limited. $51.7B market cap, operating across Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Brazil. The stock is down 56% from its 52-week high. The market has declared this story broken. We think the market is reading the wrong chapter. (1/10)

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David Shapiro (L/0)
David Shapiro (L/0)@DaveShapi·
First impression of Claude 4.8: pretty sharp. I gave it my standard intelligence test (can it solve post-labor economics without searching the internet). It did pretty well. On the first message (depicted below) it nailed that capital is the primary move as wages erode.
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Multi@multifolio·
@JSE_Invest the problem is the stock based comp which offsets buybacks quite substantially. when your business suffers regulatory crackdown you shouldn't dilute your stock and fill your pockets. bad move.
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Sparky
Sparky@jdmsparky·
$LX origination volume up when everyone else is down. Likely dodging the new regulations. And yet, Operating Income -83%. No share repurchase this Q, they didn't even try unlike $XYF. Divi plan is % of NI, lets see how long that net income lasts
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Multi@multifolio·
@MoatOwl it is too expensive innit
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Gavin Tan
Gavin Tan@MoatOwl·
Next up is a Japanese treasure: Fast Retailing, the Tokyo-listed parent of Uniqlo. At $22B in sales, it's the world's third-largest apparel retailer, behind Inditex/Zara (€40B) and H&M (€22B). Meet $9983.T. (1/10)
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Multi@multifolio·
@ThinkFinance999 i was close to switching but now the new Gemini Ultra tier looks attractive.
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Paulo Santos
Paulo Santos@ThinkFinance999·
@multifolio It was growing much, much, much faster in the first few months, versus the last 2, if that number is real.
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Multi@multifolio·
@ThinkFinance999 they are expensive. gemini models get the job done.
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Multi@multifolio·
@ReneSellmann Tiger, on the other hand, seems less affected because it is generally perceived as a smaller player with lower expectations and visibility. Still, there is reputational damage and it mainly depends on how far the news spreads and whether customers actually care. 2/2
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Multi@multifolio·
@ReneSellmann Regarding your first question, that crossed my mind as well. Futu likely suffered more damage because I viewed it as the emerging broker — the one with a seat at every table and a strong growth trajectory in user assets. That creates a greater degree of reputational exposure. 1/2
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Rene Sellmann
Rene Sellmann@ReneSellmann·
Let me just reemphasize a core belief of mine: most people should not invest actively! Today was one of those gut-wrenching days for me that tested my resolve and reminded me of that very belief. One of my largest positions – Tiger Brokers $TIGR – was down 40% pre-market on yet another round of regulatory crackdowns from China, alongside its peer $FUTU. So why should most people just stick to indexing? First, I believe there is a temperament problem. I consider myself a fairly rational and emotionally stable investor. I played poker for many years when I was younger, which thoroughly trained me to process financial losses without panicking, and to assess outcomes based on the quality of the underlying decision and not the outcome itself. Yet, even with that background, I could still feel the heavy "impact" of today's 40% drop. When a stock plummets like that – and it happens more frequently than you may think ($WIX recently had one of these days too), and you might already feel it after just a 10% drop –, it is incredibly easy to turn off your rational brain and let raw emotion take the wheel. When your emotions start controlling your decision-making, that usually doesn't lead to quality decisions. Second, tracking businesses takes serious time and specialized skill. Understanding corporate fundamentals, accurately assessing the quantitative impact of breaking news, thinking about the impact in terms of valuation and the embedded expectations in the price, and thinking in shifting probabilities are attributes you have to actively train. For instance, today, when the news dropped today, one of the first questions that popped up in my mind was "What's the range of possible fines Tiger may be facing and which probability would I assign to each scenario?" (from a fine so large they'd bankrupt the company to a much more moderate fine like the one we learned about later throughout the day) Later in the day, the regulatory details emerged: Tiger is facing a fine of roughly RMB 308 million plus RMB 103 million in confiscated illegal income (rpughly US$57M). While substantial, it is a far cry from the existential threat the pre-market sell-off implied (in my view at least). Looking at the initial panic, bankruptcy was absolutely on the menu of market fears (and it wasn't a zero probability scenario to be fair), but the actual numbers are a manageable corporate hit (around 4 months of FY25's net income) rather than a death sentence. With mainland Chinese assets now representing only about 10% of total assets, there are three open questions I am weighing going forward: 1️⃣ How heavily will this impact Tiger’s brand? Will prospective clients simply opt for a perceived safer haven like Interactive Brokers ($IBKR)? This is a qualitative risk that is easily underestimated. I got this one initially wrong when owning $TISG, for instance, the Mediterranean Sea incident happened. 2️⃣ Is the "China overhang" finally over? With a two-year transition period outlined to wind down existing mainland accounts, is this the final chapter that allows Tiger to finally move forward cleanly with its international growth and user based that is much more diversified geographically than it was in the past, before the company faced the initial waves of regulatory crackdown (2021, 2023, 2025)? This is the bullish interpretation. 3️⃣ Is the perimeter truly drawn, or could Hong Kong residents eventually face similar capital flight restrictions down the road? I'd love to hear opinions on this from people actually living in HK. I realize, under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework, Hong Kong maintains a completely independent monetary system, but with regulatory screws tightened further and further, I guess you cannot be cautious enough. Active investing isn't just about reading spreadsheets; it's about staying rational when the market drops a bomb on your portfolio. Today was a stark reminder of that for me.
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