Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli

Prof. @nmaffeifaccioli and I are super happy to be @SantAnnaPisa for our annual course on Empirical Macroeconomics. Nicolo’ teaches econometrics of SVAR models while I teach applications (Phillips curve, inflation surge, hysteresis, inequality, labor share, immigration). Pisa 🥰

@FraRavazzolo This project would not have been possible without the guidance of my supervisor, @FraRavazzolo. I also thank the editor and the two anonymous referees. Finally, I am grateful for the assistance I received from @francescofurla8 and @nmaffeifaccioli

We are grateful to seminar and conference participants, and to an anonymous referee for the Norges Bank working paper series for extremely useful feedback. Comments are very welcome. Please check out the paper and share your thoughts!

We formalize this mechanism within a two-agent New Keynesian search-and-matching model with imperfect information in which women’s pessimistic beliefs about underlying shocks generate their differential response to inflation.

🥁 Working paper update 🥁 #econtwitter "Divergent Perceptions, Divergent Pay: Inflation and the Gender Wage Gap" with @LovisaReiche Link: norges-bank.no/en/news-events… We establish a new link between inflation dynamics and the evolution of the gender wage gap.

@HCBjornland Gratulerer! Kjempeflott!

📢 Very excited to share that our paper analyzing price responses of shale oil producers in the US is forthcoming in Quantitative Economics. 👇👇👇

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "What Drives the Recent Surge in Inflation? The Historical Decomposition Roller Coaster" by Drago Bergholt, Fabio Canova, Francesco Furlanetto, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, and Pål Ulvedal. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

To formalize this mechanism, we develop a New Keynesian search-and-matching model where workers do not observe the true nature of the shock and women form ambiguity averse beliefs. The model replicates the observed cyclicality of the gender wage gap.

Fact 2: Women interpret inflation as a signal of deteriorating conditions in the labor market, while men perceive mild improvement. These divergent beliefs reduce women’s willingness to negotiate, slowing their nominal wage growth relative to men’s.

Working paper alert 🥁 #econtwitter "Divergent Perceptions, Divergent Pay: Inflation and the Gender Wage Gap" with @LovisaReiche Link here: ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:c… We establish a new link between inflation dynamics and the gender wage gap. We document two facts:

The one and only Norges Bank PhD internship is back: Come to Oslo to write a paper with us! Deadline for application: November 2. Several papers have reached R&R and WP status over the last year. norges-bank.no/en/topics/Rese…

VoxEU column with @DomenicoGiannon Summary: Real-time GDP releases understated the strength of the post-pandemic recovery in both the EA and the US, masking demand pressures. cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… Key chart with real-time predictions of GDP and inflation, and revised data:

We propose different approaches to shrink the uncertainty around the estimated deterministic component. Once this uncertainty is taken care of, demand shocks are the main drivers of the inflation surge in the United States, the euro area, and in four small open economies.

What this means: models that exhibit very similar IRFs to demand and supply shocks may imply wildly different historical decompositions of, for example, the recent inflation surge.

Our paper is out in AEJ Macro! What drives the recent inflation surge? #EconTwitter