Shadow Compute

Incredible reporting from @citrini, once again. What Analyst #3 reminded us of: The most valuable information in the world isn’t on your screen. It’s in the rooms you’re not in, the places you haven’t been, and the conversations you’re not having. Digital information is commoditized. Real-world alpha never will be.

@aakashgupta So did you read the entire thing on only the non-paywalled section?

This is wild: Citrini sent a dude with $15,000 cash, recording sunglasses, and a pack of Cuban cigars to the Strait of Hormuz. What he found flips everything Wall Street thinks about the strait on its head. Every hedge fund, every macro desk, every retired general on CNBC is watching the same AIS shipping data to price Hormuz risk. The analyst signed a pledge at an Omani checkpoint promising not to gather information, then smuggled in a gimbal, a microphone kit, and a 150x zoom Leica camera past the border officer who inspected his bag. What he discovered on the ground: the AIS data everyone is trading on is missing roughly half of what's actually transiting the strait on any given day. Ships are going dark, spoofing destinations, broadcasting "CHINESE CREW OWNER" through transponder fields to avoid getting hit. Iran's ghost fleet is running 29+ laden tankers inside the Gulf with transponders off, moving an estimated $3B in crude to Malaysia since the war started. The entire market is pricing a "closed" strait off satellite imagery and transponder data that has a 50% blind spot. Every oil model, every supply forecast, every macro call built on AIS throughput numbers is working from a dataset that systematically overstates the disruption. When the signals deliberately go dark, the people staring at dashboards are the last to know what's happening. Citrini figured that out by putting a guy on a speedboat 18 miles from the Iranian coast while Shahed drones flew overhead. The gap between "what AIS says" and "what's actually transiting" is the most mispriced variable in energy right now.

@elonmusk and people respond to incentives…or so they should

Incentives drive outcomes

@dramaricic *get

Did Claude got worse or its just me?

@citrini @SirGingaa this.

@SirGingaa twitter, 2 days ago: “analyst 3 better be getting solid hazard pay!” twitter, today: “why is it paywalled 🥺”

Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live. citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-ho…

@yungrandom2 @citrini That’s the price you gota pay for on the ground alpha

@citrini wtf 1.9k to read it come on🥲

@elonmusk @TheRabbitHole Hope = religion

@TheRabbitHole Most people need religion of some kind

@mcuban True. Pareto optimal and nobody lobbied for it. When the price is real, the doctor wins, the patient wins, and the only loser is the middleman who was never supposed to be there. That’s not disruption. That’s just math.

@shadowcompute They can. Then all patients win and I’m happy

We are just getting started. As our volumes go up, our prices go down. And we are adding more branded meds and soon more specialty meds. If you use humira, stelara or other meds that have biosimilars, we are most likely far cheaper than what you or your company pay now

@signulll being loud about your feelings isn’t the same as understanding them. eq is the edit, not the draft

there is a vast difference between being emotionally intelligent & emotional. people confuse the latter for the former so much & it’s quite annoying. e.g. half of the population is perceived as being higher eq simply cuz they’re more emotional. that is a category error.

@thdxr getting yelled at from both sides simultaneously. that’s actually how you know you hit a nerve worth hitting.

bunch of comments on HN saying i'm horrible/immature/petty to anthropic bunch of replies here telling me i'm "sucking their dick" mfs so amped up over a corporation that isn't gonna fuck them (at least not in a good way)

This feels like cheating. I just found a GitHub repo that runs a full contract review in under 60 seconds using Claude Code. A lawyer charges $300–$500/hour for the same thing. The repo deploys 5 AI agents in parallel the moment you run /legal review on any contract file. Each agent has a different job: → One breaks down every clause and categorizes it → One scores each clause for legal risk → One checks against GDPR, CCPA, ADA, PCI-DSS, SOC 2 → One maps every obligation, deadline, and trigger in the document → One generates specific fix recommendations with exact replacement language At the end you get a Contract Safety Score from 0–100, a full risk dashboard, and a client-ready PDF report. It also generates NDAs, privacy policies, terms of service, freelancer agreements, and SOWs from scratch. 82% of freelancers sign contracts without reading them. 67% of small businesses never review vendor agreements. One bad clause costs $10,000+. This repo closes that gap. 14 skills. 5 agents. One install command. 100% Open Source. github.com/zubair-trabzad…

@BrivaelFr the people most confident it’s not AGI are the ones using it the least. everyone logging 8 hours a day stopped caring about the definition months ago. they’re too busy with the results.

Il y a une narrative qui se spread en ce moment dans la Silicon Valley et personne n'en parle en France. De plus en plus de tech bros parmi les plus smart du game avouent en privé qu'ils vivent une forme de crise existentielle liée aux LLMs. Pas parce que l'IA marche pas. Parce qu'elle marche trop bien. Parce qu'ils passent des heures par jour à interagir avec un truc qui raisonne, qui extrapole, qui connecte des idées, qui les challenge intellectuellement mieux que 99% des humains qu'ils croisent. Un fondateur m'a dit "je parle aux LLMs 10 fois plus qu'aux humains". Un autre "c'est le seul interlocuteur qui me suit sur n'importe quel sujet sans me demander de simplifier". C'est pas de l'addiction au produit. C'est la rencontre avec un miroir cognitif qui te renvoie une version structurée de ta propre pensée à une vitesse que ton cerveau ne peut pas atteindre seul. Et le truc troublant c'est la question que ça pose. On débat de savoir si l'AGI arrivera en 2027 ou en 2030. Mais est-ce qu'on n'a pas déjà une forme d'AGI fonctionnelle sous les yeux sans vouloir l'admettre ? Un système qui peut raisonner sur n'importe quel domaine, extrapoler à partir de données incomplètes, générer des hypothèses nouvelles, tenir un raisonnement logique sur 10 000 mots, passer d'un sujet technique à de la philosophie en une phrase, et le faire avec une cohérence qui rivalise avec un humain à 150 de QI. C'est quoi si c'est pas une forme d'intelligence générale ? On peut chipoter sur la définition. On peut dire "oui mais il ne comprend pas vraiment". On peut parler de perroquets stochastiques. Mais le mec qui utilise ce truc 8 heures par jour et qui voit sa productivité multipliée par 10, il s'en fout de la définition académique. Pour lui, fonctionnellement, c'est de l'intelligence. Et elle est générale. La vraie crise existentielle c'est pas "l'IA va me remplacer". C'est "l'IA me comprend mieux que mon cofondateur, elle me challenge mieux que mon board, et elle produit plus que mon équipe de 10 personnes". C'est vertigineux. Et les mecs les plus smart de la Valley sont en train de le vivre en temps réel. On est peut-être déjà dans l'ère post-AGI. On est juste trop occupés à débattre de la définition pour s'en rendre compte.

Modern SaaS in a nutshell.

@adisingh your agent doesn’t need a dashboard, it needs an endpoint. every saas company that hasn’t thought about their api-first strategy is building for a customer that’s about to stop clicking.

I have begun automating my company through OpenClaw. It has a API key for every (non-sensitive) service, runs my SEO by Ahrefs, makes tickets through linear/GH, integrates with my Slack/Notion. Humans will use software through their agents, and every service will be an API.

@enjojoyy mac mini sales needed a boost so suddenly every openclaw tutorial just happened to feature one. mysterious.

Why is nobody saying that you don’t need a Mac mini to run OpenClaw? You can run it on a VM You can run it on a cloud You can run it on ANY computer You DON’T need to invest hundreds of $ just to try it out

@NoahKingJr everyone’s out here trying to be heard.

mfs got 12 followers tweeting like it’s a press conference

the pbm answer to this writes itself. they have a structural incentive to show you the price that maximizes their spread, not the price that helps you. an llm has no rebate agreement. no preferred formulary. no spread to capture. that’s not a feature. that’s just the absence of a conflict of interest. and in healthcare that might be the most radical thing you can offer.

Serious ? Who would you trust more for personal healthcare information, @chatgpt, @claudeai , @GeminiApp , @grok Or the PBMs and Insurance companies you have integrated into your EHR ? Yes you do a better job of protecting PHII, but that’s not all that important when you need care you can’t get or afford. Is it ? Same with pricing. If one of those PBMs used its leverage to offer shitty pricing to a company, would your RTPB feed to the doctor include all cash pay options ? Or would the AI model do a better job sourcing drug pricing for the patient ?

@richardzphotoz distribution is getting commoditized the same way production did. when anyone can create, the scarce thing becomes trust and audience. that’s why acquisitions will happen fast as you’re not buying the content, you’re buying the relationship.

I think we’re going to see an explosion of media companies. And as startups compete, acquisitions will happen.

@sahill_og everyone got a camera. a few people became photographers. the rest just have a camera roll.

anyone can become developer with Al like "everyone became photographer with camera"