Andrew Sinclair

Russian internet: what is happening there and what it means - an opinion of Ukrainian expert Vadym Denysenko. At first glance, everything the Russian authorities are doing with the internet looks like chaos. And it is indeed classic managerial chaos. But it's too early to celebrate. 1. It's necessary to start with the fact that Russia, especially after the 2024 presidential elections, is rapidly moving toward a model similar to North Korea. And this process means that the country has entered an era of prohibitions. And now is precisely the moment when the process begins to dominate over substance. 2. Does the Kremlin have a plan and an understanding of what Russia should look like with Cheburnet ("sovereign internet")? Right now, it can be said with 100% certainty that it does not. Putin's vision is that it should be something like the USSR of the 1970s or China today. But there is no clear model. Russia has begun to shut down the internet without understanding what it would result in. 3. Putin has always taken a scrupulous approach to such reforms. Now it seems he has simply let the situation take its course. He doesn't think in terms of details; he thinks in terms of "we need to ban something," without keeping track of the big picture (having no idea how it should be). This, by the way, is the new reality of governance in Russia, where the system carries out all the leader's wishes without any criticism. I can speculate that such a governance system will inevitably lead to a series of failures, resulting in a sharp deterioration of the state's governance system within a relatively short period of time. And here, everything will depend on whether Russia has sufficient resources, because governance crises accelerate sharply when funds run out. 4. The lack of a unified vision has led to each agency interpreting the internet shutdown in its own way. There is the FSB, which wants both control over everything and the tools to influence everyone. This is the first major contradiction. There is Kirienko, who wants dominance in the digital economy and is pushing out a number of platforms, including Telegram, but hides behind politics and shoots himself in the foot by shutting down the entire internet in general and Telegram in particular. There is digital currency, which combats corruption but cuts off the financial flows on which many officials depend. But most importantly, shutting down the internet destroys trust in that very currency. In short, this is classic managerial chaos, where the system mimics the leader's amorphous desires. 5. How long will this chaos last? The acute phase will be relatively short: it will take the Russians about 6-12 months to reach a sort of plateau. At the same time, the process has no clear leader (person in charge), and therefore, all players will be competing for control, which will create additional turbulence in the coming months. ‼️ But, unfortunately, few are using this time for information warfare in Russia.