ThoroughData | Racing Intelligence

@TWEnclosure With you on Stanage. 7lb below its last winning mark. Rated top by our speed metrics (Forever My Prince 2nd). In the other races our stats point elsewhere but best of luck 🚀💰

SUNDAY SELECTIONS 📝 Ascot: 2.30 - Noahsgreatrainbow 3/1 NAP 3.05 - The Bellhop 12/1 L15 4.15 - Glance Of Glory 13/2 5.25 - Royal Way 11/2 L15 Doncaster: 2.20 - King Of Earth 10/11 3.30 - Stanage 8/1 18+ | BeGambleAware

@DonTipSports Naval Light looks very interesting on paper, providing it doesn't need the run. Should be a good race! We are taking on Munsif, and going with 8/1 Senator. Looks good value 🚀 Best of luck!

Sunday horse racing tips 14:20 Doncaster Naval Light 3/1 NAP 15:05 Ascot Munsif 6/4

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ Love the analysis!

Some thoughts on MONTY’S STAR (20/1) for the Grand National… A few of you have asked about Monty’s Star, and I can see why he’s starting to come onto people’s radar. At first glance, he doesn’t jump off the page in the same way as some others. No recent wins No flashy profile No obvious “plot horse” angle But the more you dig into him, the more interesting he becomes. This feels like a very different type of case to some of the others I’ve looked at. Let’s go through it. 1️⃣ The basic profile Trainer: Henry De Bromhead Age: 9 Official mark: 159 Weight: 11st 3lb Current odds: around 20/1 (5 places) Straight away, a few things stand out. 👉 Proven Grade 1 horse 👉 Running in a handicap off 159 👉 Currently carries 11st 3lb (a very workable weight) That weight is important. The modern National has favoured horses carrying 11st-11st 5lb, and he sits right in that sweet spot. 2️⃣ The “graded horse in a handicap” angle This is the key to him. He has spent the last couple of seasons running in races like: - Gold Cup - Grade 1s at Leopardstown - Punchestown Grade 1 And he hasn’t been disgraced. That matters. Because instead of picking up wins in weaker races, he has been: 👉 running against the very best 👉 holding his own 👉 and keeping his mark in a workable place His RPRs tell the story: 👉 161 at Leopardstown 👉 162 earlier in the season That’s proper high-level form. Now he drops into a handicap. That is always worth paying attention to. 3️⃣ The “nearly horse” profile… and why it might suit On paper, you could knock him for not winning since 2023. But in this race, that can actually work in your favour. Because: 👉 he hasn’t been hammered by the handicapper 👉 he hasn’t had a brutal, all-out winning effort recently 👉 he has been kept ticking over in top company He’s been running well without getting his head in front. And that’s often how you end up with a horse: 👉 who is still competitive 👉 but not fully exposed 4️⃣ The track angle (this is interesting) One thing I like here is his December Leopardstown run. 👉 RPR 161 👉 flat, galloping track 👉 similar rhythm to Aintree Not every National horse wants a flat track. Some are better suited to Cheltenham’s undulations and stamina grind. Monty’s Star looks like: 👉 a smooth traveller 👉 an economical jumper 👉 a horse who should be comfortable at Aintree That’s a big plus. 5️⃣ Stamina – unknown or opportunity? This is the big question. He hasn’t run over 4m+. But… 👉 strong runs over 3m+ in Grade 1 company 👉 stayed on well in those races 👉 pedigree suggests stamina (Walk In The Park/Glacial Storm influence) So while it’s not proven, it looks like: 👉 the extra trip could bring improvement rather than expose him And in a race like this, that’s often what you’re looking for. 6️⃣ The market position Currently around 20/1 with 5 places. The Betfair market shows: 👉 solid support around 20–22 👉 decent liquidity 👉 holding his position He’s not being smashed. But he’s not being ignored either. That’s usually a sign of: 👉 a solid, respected contender 👉 rather than hype-driven money 7️⃣ The negatives (and there are some) It’s not all straightforward. 👉 Hasn’t won since 2023 👉 Can look like he lacks a finishing kick 👉 Has been beaten a fair way in some Grade 1s 👉 Needs to prove he truly stays this trip So you are relying on: 👉 the trip unlocking improvement 👉 rather than proven dominance 8️⃣ Where I land on him This is where it differs from something like Haiti Couleurs. With Monty’s Star, I don’t feel like: 👉 the handicapper has him fully boxed in 👉 or the market has completely caught up Instead, it feels like: 👉 a solid Grade 1 horse 👉 dropping into a handicap 👉 with the potential to improve for the trip At around 20/1 with 5 places, that’s appealing. Final thought He’s not the obvious one. He’s not the flashy one. But he’s the type that: 👉 keeps running his race 👉 sits in the right weight range 👉 and could take a step forward at this trip So where I land is: 👉 a solid, likeable profile 👉 with a bit of upside at the trip 👉 and still looks fairly priced at around 20/1 Could be an each way play with 6-8 places available on the day. One I’m happy to keep firmly onside 👍

@samuelstorrs07 The Bowen booking is interesting for sure. Although no wins at Ascot in the last 12 months and will need the race to be ran to its strengths. We are going for Senator. Beat Macshadow last time out! Value at 8/1 Best of luck 🚀💰

Munsif 🐎 Bowen booked Can’t lose won’t lose 3 pt win

@FREESPORTSB3TS Amazing! Roaring Ralph was one of our highest rated TD Scores going into today, 15/8 this morning, so when I saw your post earlier I felt pretty confident 🚀

Fortune favours the brave it seems! 🙂‍↕️ Roaring Ralph you good ting!!

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