English
Chris Snyder
370 posts
Chris Snyder
@tri413
Husband. Father of three. Technologist. Cloud Surfer. Flight Instructor. Wind addict.
Virginia Sumali Aralık 2008
561 Sinusundan171 Mga Tagasunod
@tri413 We apologize for the inconvenience and want to address this further. Can you send us more details at bit.ly/ContactUs7Elev…? Our customer care team can also be reached at 1-800-255-0711. Thank you.
English
@7eleven why is my local Diesel pump slower than an EV to fill up my Jeep EcoDiesel?
English
English
@7eleven I hope the 2022 copyright isn’t an indication of priority that contact us form submissions are given.
English
Chris Snyder nag-retweet
Elon Musk just exposed the one lie every modern nation tells itself.
Musk: “In 1969, we were able to send somebody to the moon.”
Rotary phones. Computers the size of rooms. Slide rules.
We put a human on the moon with less processing power than your watch.
Musk: “Then the space shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit.”
The most advanced nation in human history went from footprints on the moon to zero capability of leaving the atmosphere.
That is not a funding problem.
That is civilizational decay dressed up as a policy decision.
Musk: “People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves… it will, by itself, degrade.”
That sentence should keep you up tonight.
We treat progress like gravity. Like it pulls us forward whether we try or not.
It is the opposite.
Progress is a boulder on a hill. The second you stop pushing, it rolls back over you. And it never announces itself.
Musk: “You look at great civilizations like ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that.”
They did not run out of stone.
They were not conquered.
They got comfortable. And the knowledge bled out so quietly that nobody noticed until it was already gone.
That is the real threat to everything we have built.
Not a nuclear flash. Not an asteroid. Not some dramatic Hollywood collapse.
A quiet forgetting.
Every chip we fabricate. Every rocket we launch. Every data center we power. All of it held together by a thin fraction of the population working at a pace that would break most people.
The moment that fraction gets tired or outnumbered by people who believe the machine runs itself, everything dissolves.
And here is the part nobody wants to say out loud.
We are not special. We are running the same operating system as every civilization that came before us.
Comfort is the sedative. Complacency is the flatline.
One generation that stops fighting is all it has ever taken.
You do not lose the future in a war.
You lose it in your sleep.
English
When I sat on the board of a modest neighborhood where our main amenity was water falling over rocks by a gazebo.
The management company took almost half of the HOA dues to collect our quarterly payments and conduct a reserve study that valued the replacement rocks so highly that we were going to have to raise our dues by 25%. I contested their assertion that the usable life of rocks was only 20 years. The rocks have been there for thousands, maybe millions of years. We did not end up raising the dues.
Everyone else on the board just went along with the management company without questioning. I have always thought that management companies are money printers if you can find community managers with rhino thick skin.
English
Since the HOA post went viral I've had a lot of people ask me what I actually think about HOAs
So I did what I do
I ran the numbers
There are 373,000 HOAs in the United States
77 million Americans live in one
That's 1 in 4 people
Collectively they pay $106 billion a year in assessments
$106 billion
That's more than the GDP of over 100 countries
For an organization run by your neighbor who hasn't mowed his lawn
The average HOA fee is $243 a month
That's $2,916 a year
For a household earning the median income of $80,000 that's 3.6% of gross income
Going to an organization with no earnings report, no audited financials, and no fiduciary duty in most states
If this were a company it would never survive diligence
Here's why
The board of directors is unpaid
They're volunteers
97.6 million hours of volunteer labor annually
Valued at $2.9 billion
So the people making the rules, setting the budgets, and enforcing fines on your trash can are doing it for free
In private equity we would never invest in a company where the entire leadership team works for nothing
Because when people aren't paid they aren't accountable
And when they aren't accountable they fine you $50 for 11 minutes of trash can visibility while their Christmas lights have been up for 97 days
70% of HOAs are underfunded on reserves by 70% or more
That means the money you pay every month isn't being saved for future repairs
It's being spent
On what
60-70% of HOAs hire third-party management companies
These companies collect your dues, manage your vendors, and enforce your rules
For a fee
Off the top
Before a single dollar goes to the landscaper or the reserve fund
So your $243 a month goes to a management company that hires a vendor that hires a landscaper that mows the common area you could mow yourself
That's not a value chain
That's a fee chain
And landscaping alone can eat up to 50% of the operating budget
For grass
71% of HOAs plan to raise fees this year
71% of those plan to raise them up to 10%
So the cost goes up every year
The reserves stay underfunded
The board stays unpaid
The bylaws stay unread
And you get a letter in an envelope with a stamp in 2026 because your trash can was visible for 11 minutes
If someone brought me this deal I'd pass in the first meeting
No audited financials
No professional management required by law in most states
No fiduciary standard
Unpaid leadership
70% underfunded reserves
Rising costs with no margin improvement
And a customer base that can't leave without selling their house
That last part is the only reason it works
You can't cancel your HOA membership
You can cancel a gym membership
You can cancel a home warranty
You can cancel a streaming service
But you cannot cancel the organization that fines you for your trash can
The only exit is selling your home
In PE we call that a captive customer base
It's the only business model where the product gets worse, the price goes up, and the customer can't leave
And the board enforcing the rules hasn't read them
I have
All 47 pages
Make common sense common again
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
Ethan Brooks@alt_w_v_g
Got a letter from the HOA yesterday Actual letter In an envelope With a stamp In 2026 The letter said my trash can was visible from the street for too long on collection day The fine is $50 I checked my Ring camera The truck came at 7:03am I brought the can in at 7:14am 11 minutes $50 That's $4.55 per minute of trash can visibility My therapist charges $250 an hour That's $4.17 per minute My trash can sitting in a driveway is now more expensive per minute than therapy I looked at the letter again It was signed by the HOA president Her name is Karen Of course it is I know this woman She lives four houses down She still has Christmas lights up It's March I know because I drive past them twice a day And because that's what I do I checked the HOA bylaws All 47 pages Section 4.2 says all exterior fixtures and lighting must be seasonal and removed within 30 days of the applicable holiday Her lights have been up for 97 days I went to the HOA meeting Tuesday night 7pm In a church basement Folding chairs Fruit platter that nobody touched Seven people showed up Four of them were on the board The other three were there to complain I was there to read My wife came with me She didn't want to But she said "if I don't come you'll end up on the news" I brought my legal pad Karen called the meeting to order She talked about community standards She talked about property values She talked about the importance of curb appeal From a woman whose Christmas lights are still blinking in March I raised my hand She said "we'll take questions at the end" I said "it's not a question. It's a point of order." She looked at me I opened my legal pad I said "Section 4.2 requires seasonal decorations to be removed within 30 days. Your Christmas lights have been up for 97 days. You fined me $50 for 11 minutes of trash can visibility on collection day while you've been in violation for over three months." The room was quiet One of the other three complainers said "he's right" The board members looked at each other Karen said "that's a separate issue" I said "it's the same bylaws" She said "we'll review it" I said "I already did. Page 12. Happy to share my highlights." My wife looked at the ceiling Some things never change Karen said "I think we should move on" I said "agreed. I'll move on when the Christmas lights do." Nobody laughed I wasn't joking I paid the $50 Because it's $50 and I'm not going to die on that hill But if the rules apply to me they apply to everyone So I filed a formal complaint about the lights With photos Timestamped Funny how surveillance works both ways The fine for seasonal decoration violations is $75 per occurrence She's been in violation for 67 days past the 30-day grace period I'll let her do the math Or I'll do it for her Because that's what I do Make common sense common again Plz fix. Thx. Sent from my iPhone
English
Have Grok review legal documents like vehicle purchase orders. Based on the feedback, I decided to get an independent trade offer that netted me an extra $1,000.
English
@alt_w_v_g That reminds me of my HOA “mailbox wrap war of 2011”. HOA boards attract misery.
English
Got a letter from the HOA yesterday
Actual letter
In an envelope
With a stamp
In 2026
The letter said my trash can was visible from the street for too long on collection day
The fine is $50
I checked my Ring camera
The truck came at 7:03am
I brought the can in at 7:14am
11 minutes
$50
That's $4.55 per minute of trash can visibility
My therapist charges $250 an hour
That's $4.17 per minute
My trash can sitting in a driveway is now more expensive per minute than therapy
I looked at the letter again
It was signed by the HOA president
Her name is Karen
Of course it is
I know this woman
She lives four houses down
She still has Christmas lights up
It's March
I know because I drive past them twice a day
And because that's what I do
I checked the HOA bylaws
All 47 pages
Section 4.2 says all exterior fixtures and lighting must be seasonal and removed within 30 days of the applicable holiday
Her lights have been up for 97 days
I went to the HOA meeting
Tuesday night
7pm
In a church basement
Folding chairs
Fruit platter that nobody touched
Seven people showed up
Four of them were on the board
The other three were there to complain
I was there to read
My wife came with me
She didn't want to
But she said "if I don't come you'll end up on the news"
I brought my legal pad
Karen called the meeting to order
She talked about community standards
She talked about property values
She talked about the importance of curb appeal
From a woman whose Christmas lights are still blinking in March
I raised my hand
She said "we'll take questions at the end"
I said "it's not a question. It's a point of order."
She looked at me
I opened my legal pad
I said "Section 4.2 requires seasonal decorations to be removed within 30 days. Your Christmas lights have been up for 97 days. You fined me $50 for 11 minutes of trash can visibility on collection day while you've been in violation for over three months."
The room was quiet
One of the other three complainers said "he's right"
The board members looked at each other
Karen said "that's a separate issue"
I said "it's the same bylaws"
She said "we'll review it"
I said "I already did. Page 12. Happy to share my highlights."
My wife looked at the ceiling
Some things never change
Karen said "I think we should move on"
I said "agreed. I'll move on when the Christmas lights do."
Nobody laughed
I wasn't joking
I paid the $50
Because it's $50 and I'm not going to die on that hill
But if the rules apply to me they apply to everyone
So I filed a formal complaint about the lights
With photos
Timestamped
Funny how surveillance works both ways
The fine for seasonal decoration violations is $75 per occurrence
She's been in violation for 67 days past the 30-day grace period
I'll let her do the math
Or I'll do it for her
Because that's what I do
Make common sense common again
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
English
Ran some diligence on SiriusXM this weekend
Not because anyone asked
Because my 14-year-old nephew connected his phone to my car via Bluetooth, played a Spotify playlist, and asked me what the "SXM" button was for
I didn't have an answer
So I pulled the 10-K
SiriusXM is an $8.56B revenue company with nearly $10B in debt and a $7.4B market cap
Read that again
The debt is larger than the company
Their business model, simplified:
1. Pay automakers to install radios nobody asked for
2. Give every new car buyer a free trial they didn't request
3. Hope they forget to cancel
4. Charge them $25.99/month for something their phone does for $10.99
That's it. That's the model.
They have 33M subscribers. Sounds impressive until they lost 301,000 self-pay subscribers last year. And hundreds of thousands the year before that.
Revenue has declined three consecutive years
The average subscriber is 35-64, male, household income over $150K. Over half have been paying for 10+ years.
These aren't loyal customers
These are people whose spouses haven't noticed the $25.99 charge on the Amex yet
The crown jewel of the portfolio is Howard Stern. They pay him roughly $100M a year. He works three days a week. His show averages 125K daily listeners.
That's $800 per listener per year
My analyst did the math three times because he thought he was wrong
He wasn't
For that price, you could buy each listener a Spotify family plan, an Audible subscription, and still have enough left for AirPods
Speaking of Spotify. Nearly 290M premium subscribers. Growing double digits. $10.99/month. Available on every device ever made.
SiriusXM. 33M subscribers. Shrinking. $25.99/month. Requires a satellite.
Spotify's full-year revenue grew 19%. SiriusXM's declined 2%.
Spotify trades at 74x earnings. SiriusXM trades at 5x.
The market is not confused about which direction these businesses are headed
Their growth strategy is called the "trial funnel." There are 7.3M people driving cars with free SiriusXM trials. The conversion rate is not publicly disclosed.
Probably because it's embarrassing
They have 180M "enabled vehicles" in the U.S. They have 33M subscribers. That's an 18% attach rate on hardware they already paid to install.
82% of the cars with their radios in them are generating zero revenue
In any other industry an 18% hit rate gets you fired
In satellite radio, it gets you a seat on the NYSE
Adjusted EBITDA margin is 31%. Looks healthy. Until you realize "adjusted" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting in a company that posted a $2.08B net loss the year prior.
Adjusted EBITDA was $2.73B that same year
The distance between those two numbers is called addbacks
And they're working overtime
2026 guidance: flat revenue, flat EBITDA, slightly fewer subscribers. The CEO called this stability and meaningful progress.
On Wall Street, we call this managed decline
Warren Buffett owns 35.4% of this company. This is the most confusing part. The man who said "be fearful when others are greedy" bought a satellite radio company in the age of Bluetooth.
His entry was a Liberty Media arb play that accidentally became a long-term hold. The stock is down over 50% from its highs.
I don't know why he's still in. You don't know why. His shareholders definitely don't know why.
The bull thesis: SiriusXM has 33M people who have been paying $15/month for a decade and have no plans to stop. That's $6B in recurring revenue from people who may not even remember they're subscribed. Churn is 1.5%. Lower than most SaaS companies.
The bear thesis: Every teenager alive today has never used a car radio
Both are probably right
SiriusXM's competitive moat is not content. It's not technology. It's not brand.
It's the 47 minutes it takes to cancel over the phone
SiriusXM isn't a bad company. It's a case study in what happens when your moat is consumer apathy and your growth strategy requires General Motors.
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
English
@alt_w_v_g Enjoyed the analysis. Sirius also has in-cockpit weather for pilots $30-40/m. Probably not a big base but not something Spotify can replace (yet).
English
Level up your menu with Grok. Several times a week we ask for meal ideas. Today won our local chili cook off with his recipe!
English
Update: Wednesday
The department-wide meeting
I was not invited
I went anyway
8am
Walked in
Legal pad in hand
The room was full
Not just HR
Not just finance
The entire floor
Someone from marketing was there
She had "Identified Adjective: Creative" in her email signature
I've never met her
HR stood at the front
PowerPoint on the screen
Slide one: "Email Signature Policy: Clarification & Compliance"
I sat in the front row
HR looked at me
I opened my legal pad
She began
"Effective immediately, the email signature policy will require identified pronouns only. Adjectives are not included."
I raised my hand
She said "we're not taking questions yet"
I said "it's not a question. It's a point of order. The current policy says 'identified.' It does not specify a part of speech. You're changing the policy, not clarifying it."
Legal was in the back of the room
He nodded
Again
HR said "we've updated the language"
I said "when"
She said "this morning"
I said "so the policy I complied with yesterday is no longer the policy today"
She said "correct"
I said "and I'm the one being non-compliant"
The room was quiet
The controller raised his hand
He said "so do I remove 'Tired' or not"
Someone in the back laughed
HR did not laugh
The analyst was standing in the doorway
I didn't invite him
He came anyway
He was holding a legal pad
I looked at him
He looked at me
I didn't say anything
But I noted it
HR said "going forward, signatures will include name, title, and identified pronouns. Nothing else."
I said "I'll comply with the new policy"
She looked surprised
I said "effective today. As written. Until someone changes it again."
My boss said "I think that's fair"
HR closed the PowerPoint
Meeting adjourned in 14 minutes
I walked out
The analyst followed me
He said "so the adjectives are gone?"
I said "from the signature, yes"
He said "that's it?"
I said "the policy changed. So I'll change."
He looked confused
I said "but the policy didn't say anything about the out-of-office auto-reply"
He stared at me
I stared back
He smiled
First time I've ever seen that kid smile at work
I think he just earned his first adjective
Updated my out-of-office to:
Thank you for your email. I am currently unavailable.
Best,
Ethan Brooks
Identified Adjectives: Smart / Handsome
Identified Chromosomes: XY
For urgent matters, please contact HR. They love hearing from people.
Sent from my iPhone
Ethan Brooks@alt_w_v_g
Wednesday is tomorrow HR scheduled a department-wide meeting about identified adjectives I was not invited Neither was legal I have my legal pad ready My analyst asked if he should come I said "you haven't earned that yet" Any last-minute agenda items from stakeholders before I walk in uninvited? Drop them below Will report back on how it goes Wish me luck Actually don't I don't need it Best, Ethan Brooks Identified Adjectives: Smart / Handsome Sent from my iPhone
English
@alt_w_v_g Work history is a trove of stories. This could be bigger than Dilbert. Maybe even Garfield big.
English
Quick update: my phone hasn't stopped buzzing in 72 hours
Guys (or not guys)
I don't want to assume
I already got in trouble for this and have a 7am meeting with HR tomorrow to discuss my identified adjectives
My wife asked me to put it on silent
I said "I can't. These are stakeholders."
She said "they're strangers on the internet"
I said "stakeholders"
Over a million notifications
I am not going to read them all
I read about 10% of them
The other 90% I skimmed
Some of you are sending me your financial plans
Some of you are sending me your marital problems
One person sent me their kid's report card
It was terrible
Wishing your son well
Some of you need therapy
Some of you are already in therapy and sending me updates
I am not your therapist
I can barely afford mine
The point is I am one man
Saying what everybody already thinks
And apparently that's controversial
Make common sense common again
Best,
Ethan Brooks
Identified Adjectives: Smart / Handsome
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
English
@DudespostingWs I think it will be awhile before AI takes this job
English
@alt_w_v_g I just signed up for notifications. No chance I am missing one of these posts.
English
Update: boss moved our meeting to Monday at 7am
HR is on the invite. Legal might be too. Unclear.
I think this is about the email signature situation
Last month HR required everyone to add their identified pronouns
I complied immediately
Updated my email signature to:
Best,
Ethan Brooks
Identified Adjectives: Smart / Handsome
HR said "those aren't pronouns."
I said the policy says identify. I identified.
HR said I was being deliberately non-compliant.
I said I was being deliberately accurate.
They asked me to remove it. I asked for the policy. They sent it.
The policy says "identified."
I am smart. I am handsome. These are identified (by me).
I offered to add a third. They declined.
Anyway. Monday. 7am.
I'm sure it's fine.
Plz fix. Thx.
Sent from my iPhone
Ethan Brooks@alt_w_v_g
Boss man sent me a 4:45 PM Friday invite titled "quick chat." I accepted, then proposed a new time of 8:00 PM Wrote: "Apologies, buried today. Moved to a time that works for both of us." He declined Corporate life is so easy when you're playing chess while others are playing checkers.
English