Jnkau Consultant

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Jnkau Consultant

Jnkau Consultant

@Alphaqqqq2

شامل ہوئے Eylül 2021
40 فالونگ41 فالوورز
Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
"Even China Has No Volumes"... CCL Shortage Reaches Crisis Level A PCB manufacturer in the Seoul metropolitan area recently placed advance orders worth 10 billion won with two Taiwanese CCL (copper clad laminate) producers, EMC and TUC. The volume is more than five times the company's average monthly usage of 1.5 to 2 billion won. The company's CEO said, "We placed bulk orders out of concern about a CCL shortage, but we have no idea when they'll actually arrive," adding, "I've been in the PCB business for over 20 years, and this is the first time we've been unable to manufacture products because we couldn't get CCL." CCL Import Prices Break Through $20,000 Per Ton Prices for CCL — a core PCB material — are surging as supply falls dramatically short of demand. CCL is a panel made by laminating a thin copper foil onto an insulating substrate, and it functions as the key building-block material for PCBs. The shortage has spread as demand has surged simultaneously across major advanced industries, including AI semiconductors, data centers, and autonomous vehicles. According to data released by the Korea Customs Service on May 3, the import unit price of CCL came to $20,728 per ton in March — up 74.5% from $11,880 in the same month last year. This is the first time the CCL import unit price has broken above $20,000/ton since the relevant statistics began being compiled in 2000. The biggest driver behind the spike in CCL import prices is rising demand for CCL used in AI chips. On top of this, the use of high-spec CCL is also increasing across 5G/6G telecom infrastructure, automotive autonomous driving systems, and data center servers. CCL Players' Share Prices Rally Sharply Korea's CCL supply chain is built around copper foil suppliers (Lotte Energy Materials, SK Nexilis), CCL manufacturers (Doosan, LG Chem), and PCB substrate manufacturers (Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Daeduck Electronics). PCBs are split between premium products — which go into the most advanced GPUs such as Nvidia's Blackwell — and general-purpose products. Premium semiconductor substrates in this top tier use CCL based on high-grade T-glass material, while small- and mid-sized domestic PCB makers use E-glass-based CCL to produce general-purpose PCBs. As demand for high-spec PCBs has surged and unit prices have jumped, CCL-related companies have moved quickly to reallocate their limited production lines toward high value-added products. This is the backdrop to the spike in CCL export prices: last month, the average CCL export unit price stood at $30,998, up 65.2% year-on-year. Companies in the global CCL manufacturing supply chain are seeing both earnings and share prices rally sharply. Industry participants attribute the CCL price hikes primarily to PCBs going into Nvidia GPUs. Doosan, known to be the sole supplier of CCL for Blackwell, saw its share price jump from 152,300 won at the end of April 2024 to 1,596,000 won at the end of last month — a more than 10x gain over two years. Over the same period, Samsung Electro-Mechanics rose 5.3x and Daeduck Electronics rose 4.8x. Even Pivoting to China — "No Volumes Available" By contrast, companies left out of the advanced industries are unable to secure adequate CCL supply, with some now facing the prospect of having to halt factory operations. Major Korean semiconductor equipment makers, in particular, are reportedly suffering from CCL supply constraints. Some companies are reportedly switching from ocean freight to air freight in an effort to pull forward their CCL delivery schedules. One industry source said, "In the past, you could secure the volumes you wanted just by waiting about a month after placing an order, but now even if you place an order today, you have to wait at least six months to receive any volumes." Soaring CCL prices are also a heavy burden. With FX rates and oil prices also rising, not only product prices but also transport costs are climbing sharply. With CCL supply schedules becoming increasingly uncertain, many firms are worried about missing the PCB delivery timelines they originally committed to. Another industry source said, "We've secured Chinese suppliers in addition to our existing channels, but we've been hit by a string of delivery-delay notices recently. There's no clear-cut countermeasure, and it feels hopeless."
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
>> AI Thermal War Heats Up: MCCP and MCL to Coexist, While CPO Test Demand Surges (Commercial Times, Taiwan) • As AI chip power density rises sharply, cooling technology competition is becoming a key variable. Ahead of mass production for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform, test equipment maker Hung Ching Precision said MCCP and MCL are more likely to coexist rather than compete directly. MCCP is currently moving quickly into mass production, led by Auras Technology, while MCL is being developed by companies such as Jentech Precision Industrial. MCL carries higher cost and technical difficulty, but also has stronger performance potential. Cooler Master is pursuing both technologies in parallel. Hung Ching Precision expects MCCP to enter mass production first in Q3, improving thermal density efficiency by 2x, while MCL should follow after validation. From the customer perspective, however, adoption will likely be mixed depending on cost and product-specific requirements: some products may use MCL, others MCCP, and others conventional liquid cooling. • At the same time, the real growth opportunity in the industry is shifting beyond cooling and toward CPO. Hung Ching Precision has secured a leading position in optical-electrical co-test equipment and expects large-scale mass production demand from late this year into next year. ASPs for this equipment are significantly higher than conventional electrical test systems. In addition, the integration of vision inspection systems to protect high-value AI chips is pushing equipment prices up by another 10–15%. • On top of this, the expansion of ASICs is also driving higher demand for SLT. Hung Ching Precision currently holds roughly 60–70% share in this market. Ultimately, in the AI era, the key battleground extends beyond the chip itself to the full-stack infrastructure of cooling, packaging, and testing. Cooling will likely be a coexistence story, while profitability should expand meaningfully in CPO and test equipment.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Samsung Reignites SiC Foundry Push — Targeting 2028 Mass Production Samsung Electronics has restarted its silicon carbide (SiC) foundry business. By entering the SiC market — increasingly seen as the next-generation power semiconductor material — the company is aiming both to secure leadership in the segment and to lift utilization at its existing 8-inch foundry lines. The industry expects Samsung to begin SiC mass production in 2028. According to industry sources on the 3rd, Samsung Electronics has recently resumed discussions with partner companies on building out a SiC production line. The company is exploring technology acquisition and commercialization strategies with materials, parts, and equipment (소부장) suppliers. With some partners, Samsung is reportedly already negotiating the scale of additional equipment purchases for SiC production. "The SiC foundry initiative, which had been on hold for some time, has now formally resumed," one industry source said. "Initial groundwork has begun for SiC to be established as a new growth driver for Samsung Electronics." SiC is a compound of silicon and carbon, and SiC-based semiconductors are more resistant to high temperatures and high voltages than conventional silicon. Together with gallium nitride (GaN), this is why SiC is drawing attention as a next-generation power semiconductor material — it offers higher performance and greater stability than silicon-based power devices. A number of power semiconductor companies are accordingly investing in SiC and GaN to capture the market. Demand is expanding beyond traditional applications such as electric vehicles, EV charging, and solar power, and most recently into the data center market, driven by the need for power efficiency in AI infrastructure. Samsung Electronics is understood to have prepared the SiC business in parallel with its formal entry into GaN in 2023. At that time, demand for 8-inch (Si) foundry capacity was steadily declining, and the company was looking to secure new long-term growth drivers. 8-inch foundry lines mainly produce mature-node products, which carry lower margins than 12-inch. SiC, by contrast, is at the leading edge on 8-inch wafers, with the industry actively transitioning from 6-inch to 8-inch. For Samsung, this offers a way to address low utilization at its 8-inch lines through SiC. Investment efficiency is also high, since some existing equipment can be repurposed. This was the rationale behind Samsung's initial push into SiC as a future business in 2023. However, progress slowed amid the broader semiconductor downturn and as Samsung concentrated on restoring competitiveness in its memory business. "R&D continued, but commercialization was effectively on hold," another industry source said, describing the mood at the time. Samsung's recent moves are interpreted as a clear signal of a full-scale restart of the SiC program. As the memory business recovers, the company is also moving to secure next-generation growth drivers in foundry. Materials, parts, and equipment suppliers expect Samsung to begin building out the supply chain within this year, based on the current stage of discussions. A pilot line for prototype production is expected to be built next year, with full mass production targeted for 2028. This roadmap is reportedly already being shared with partner companies. Samsung's entry into the SiC market is expected to bring it into competition with incumbent players. Globally, onsemi, STMicroelectronics, and Infineon are pursuing the SiC business, while domestically, DB HiTek and SK Keyfoundry are the main players. A Samsung Electronics representative declined to elaborate, saying only, "Nothing has been specifically confirmed yet."
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
What are the most useful Substacks, media outlets, or websites for tracking Chinese technology trends and the current state of China’s tech ecosystem? Paid sources are fine. I’d appreciate your recommendations.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
In the CPO value chain, the category that is currently the cheapest, has the greatest upside, and remains underappreciated by the market is CPO cables.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
"But Google even probing whether it can squeeze out the pass-through mark-up on wafer orders tells you something: Google has shifted from easygoing buyer to hard-nosed on cost. The reason is simple: to take on Nvidia head-on, cost is Google’s edge, which makes EMIB-T production yield Google’s problem to solve." Very interesting...
郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo@mingchikuo

Some quick thoughts on Intel's EMIB-T packaging for the new 2H27 Google TPU (Humufish). Based on my industry checks: 【How to read EMIB-T's 90% yield?】 1. Given Intel's track record running EMIB in mass production, hitting 90% technology validation yield on EMIB-T (still under development) is a very positive but reasonable data point. 2. Intel benchmarks EMIB production/assembly yield against FCBGA. Industry FCBGA yield today is generally above 98%. 3. On yield, getting from 90% to 98% is harder than getting from project kickoff to 90%. And technology validation yield ≠ final production yield, especially with some Humufish specs still unfinalized. So long-term, I'm positive on Intel's advanced packaging story. Near to mid-term, I'm staying cautious on how they get there. 【From 90% to 98%. Looks like just a few points. Does Google care? Absolutely】 1. Google recently asked TSMC how much it could save by placing wafer orders for Humufish's main compute die (designed in-house by Google) directly, rather than routing them through MediaTek. 2. Google and MediaTek have run a semi-COT model since day one (8t). MediaTek's mark-up sits mostly on the parts it designs itself, so whether Google places the wafer orders for main compute die directly isn't a key swing factor for MediaTek's earnings trajectory. 3. But Google even probing whether it can squeeze out the pass-through mark-up on wafer orders tells you something: Google has shifted from easygoing buyer to hard-nosed on cost. The reason is simple: to take on Nvidia head-on, cost is Google's edge, which makes EMIB-T production yield Google's problem to solve. For context, TSMC's yield target on 5.5-reticle CoWoS in 2026 also starts at 98%. 【TSMC's position】 1. My understanding is TSMC is still working out how much advanced-node capacity to allocate to Humufish in 2H27, for two reasons: (1) it still wants the back-end packaging orders, though looks unlikely for now, and that's by design on Google's part; and (2) it's still gauging actual back-end output from EMIB-T, to avoid misallocating scarce advanced-node capacity. 2. Humufish's effective back-end output hinges on both EMIB-T and substrates, and both need to be tracked together. 3. On the Humufish semi-COT model, TSMC also prefers MediaTek to place the wafer orders for the main compute die. Beyond the close working relationship, the key point is MediaTek is TSMC's third-largest advanced-node customer in 2025. If TPU orders shift, MediaTek's scale makes it a natural buffer for TSMC to rebalance its wafer allocation mix.

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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Nvidia’s share in China is now 0%.
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Jnkau Consultant
Jnkau Consultant@Alphaqqqq2·
"Morning sync → deep work block → midday walk (sunshine = mood boost!) → team huddle → wrap-up check. Productive days are all about small, intentional moves. #WorkLife #DailyGrind"
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Jnkau Consultant
Jnkau Consultant@Alphaqqqq2·
"Turn 10 mins daily into a new passion! Pick one tiny thing you love (drawing, a poem, a plant) — start today. Small steps = big joy. What’s your pick "
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Jnkau Consultant ری ٹویٹ کیا
arga
arga@NokyChandra·
Just wrapped up a perfect weekend getaway—sunny hikes, coastal coffee, and sunset chats with friends. Grateful for these small, vibrant moments! #TravelDiaries #WeekendVibes
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Jnkau Consultant
Jnkau Consultant@Alphaqqqq2·
"A small 'thank you' or a quick listen—these tiny moments build the strongest connections. What’s your favorite small act of kindness today"
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