Azores Madeira

Most of the GCC states and Jordan provided ISR and logistical support to initiate the attack against Iran on February 28 while several also hosted land-based missile systems that were used to launch missile attacks against Iranian territory. The UAE has gone above and beyond however in forging a direct military alliance with Israel and fighting against Iran. With the war ending with de facto Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf it seems that this will be a difficult situation for the UAE to navigate going forward and it will either have to capitulate or escalate largely on its own. If a war does restart with Israel it would also be natural for Iran to direct a significant amount of its retaliation at Abu Dhabi as the closest ally of Tel Aviv.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Atlantic dropped a headline this week and it stings: "Trump failed to deliver on his Iran bluster, and in the end fooled only himself." And when you look at what actually happened, it kind of lands. He went in demanding unconditional surrender, spent years calling every president from Carter to Biden stupid for not being tougher on Iran, and then started the war they all had the sense to avoid. Every single one of them made the same call, that a full scale war with Iran wasn't worth it. Trump called that weakness. He went anyway. Now he's at a negotiating table cutting a deal that meets more of Tehran's demands than Washington's. The regime change goal didn't happen. Iran replaced Khamenei with a hardliner Khamenei, one who is reportedly even more committed to the nuclear program. That's a catastrophic outcome when your whole pitch was breaking the regime. When the quick collapse didn't come, Trump had no plan B. The rationale shifted every few weeks, nuclear weapons, then terrorism, then ballistic missiles, like he was picking reasons off a menu. The economy tells the rest of the story. Gas above $4 for nearly 60 days. The SPR drained by 50 million barrels in two months, faster than Biden ever managed, the same reserve Trump hammered Biden for touching. The gap between what he promised and what happened is the whole story. Source: The Atlantic

الى الاخوة العمانيين النفوذ السياسي المؤقت على منطقة ما في فترة تاريخية معينة لا يمنح أي طرف الحق في الادعاء بأن الآخرين “فرع” وهو “الأصل”. فالتاريخ الخليجي والعربي مليء بتغيرات النفوذ والتحالفات والسيطرة السياسية عبر القرون، وهذه طبيعة التاريخ البشري أصلًا. فعُمان نفسها مرت عليها كيانات ونفوذ مختلفة عبر التاريخ؛ من النفوذ ( الفارسي ) الذي في بعض المراحل، إلى امتدادات الدولة السعودية الأولى في أجزاء من الباطنة، إلى وجود سلطنات وتحالفات وقوى متعددة في جنوب الجزيرة العربية امتد نفوذها إلى ظفار وغيرها. وهذا لا يعني أن هوية الأرض تُختزل في آخر قوة حكمتها أو أن الشعوب الحالية مجرد “فروع” لكيانات سابقة. الأرض تبقى… لكن النفوذ السياسي يتغير مع الزمن. ومشكلة البعض أنهم يتعاملون مع حقبة تاريخية معينة وكأن التاريخ بدأ وانتهى عندها، بينما الواقع أن المنطقة كلها شهدت تغيرات وتحولات وتحالفات لا تُختزل في رواية واحدة أو قراءة انتقائية للتاريخ.

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