BCMstrategy, Inc.

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🇩🇪🇱🇹 GERMANY JUST PARKED TANKS IN LITHUANIA — AND RUSSIA'S WATCHING Germany just did something it hasn’t done since World War II: it permanently stationed a military brigade in another country. Yeah. Big deal. They dropped around 400 soldiers (soon to be 5,000) into Lithuania, right next door to Russia and its BFF Belarus. Why? Because Putin’s invasion of Ukraine freaked out the Baltics, and now NATO’s eastern edge is getting very real. “We’ll defend every inch of NATO,” German chancellor Friedrich Merz said, while helicopters flew over cheering crowds and German tanks rolled through Vilnius like it was Call of Duty: Eastern Front. The brigade’s full squad won’t be ready until 2027 — yes, four years to send 5,000 troops — but the message is loud: Don’t even think about it, Putin. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s footing up to €1.7 billion for schools, daycares, and bunkers to keep the German troops comfy. Source: Financial Times

On Wednesday, a federal court blocked the US president from imposing his “liberation day” tariffs on imports under an emergency-powers law. atlanticcouncil.org/content-series…

Beijing's attempts to increase CNY as an international settlement currency fall short of posing a systemic challenge to USD but have enabled China to use it for bilateral foreign policy. US & EU policymakers should consider countering or attenuating this. piie.com/publications/p…

Experts react: The US and China just agreed to dramatically reduce tariffs on each other, for now. What’s next?  #TradeWar atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…

Crypto industry hopeful for GENIUS Act despite setback thehill.com/policy/technol…

Live: European stocks gain on China-U.S. optimism; euro zone inflation steady @CNBC cnbc.com/2025/05/02/eur…

Digging in for a long #tradewar bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

To be sure, more Americans flowed into the job market, boosting employment-population ratio. Jobs report was overall solid. Markets liked it FWIW. On downside, revisions cut 58,000 jobs.

Here we go: China's exports have already dropped by 10% y/y now, biggest drop in 15 years. Ouch.

annnnd the revisions The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 15,000, from +117,000 to +102,000, and the change for March was revised down by 43,000, from +228,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 58,000 lower than previously reported.

If you did not know about tariffs you would look at today’s labor data and think the economy was doing just fine. 4.2% unemployment rate 177k job gains 60.2% participation rate 34.2. Weekly hours worked But a cliff is coming if we do not get some policy stability on trade.

One for the history books. Zelenskyy, Trump, Starmer and Macron at the Vatican.

Interesting analysis given the boom in rare earths mining & hydrogen energy investments, in part funded by the EU’s Global Gateway.