Bailey Elchinger

Maybe the most interesting note from today's NOPA Crush report--implied monthly domestic #soybean oil disappearance jumps 433M month-on-month to reach a new all-time high 2.685B lbs. Hence, #soybean oil stocks of 2.039B came in well below market expectations. #oatt #oott

Updated corn/fertilizer ratio charts. Still not great looks for farmers. Urea - 2nd highest ever, highest ever this time of year UAN - 2nd highest ever, highest ever this time of year Phosphate - highest ever this time of year Potash - remains WELL PRICED AND WELL SUPPLIED!!

USDA raised its domestic #wheat ending stocks by 7 million to 938 million bushels, while leaving #corn and #soybean stocks unchanged. #oatt

N.A. farmers are in good shape for spring fertilizer. Potash - everything should be in place Phosphate - everything should be in place NH3 - most demand is met by domestic production UAN - most demand is met by domestic production Urea - of the 5 - 5.5M import needed, 3.5M already lined up thru March

If you have not had a conversation with your supplier about spring fertilizer needs, make it a priority. The attacks on Qatar/Iran gas production caused urea to jump another 5 - 7% overnight. I am more worried about supplies than price today... This is real.

We are about to the 2 week anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. What has fertilizer done? NOLA Urea - 36% higher NOLA UAN - 23% higher Midwest NH3 - 13% higher NOLA DAP - 2% higher However, important to note that NOLA nitrogen and phosphate is "cheap" vs world.

Very boring March #WASDE overall with the biggest surprise being the 3.77 MMT uptick in world #corn ending stocks to 292.75 MMT (top-end est. was 291.0 MMT). This wasn’t really driven by the production side though (total up only 1.53 MMT from Feb). Argentina/Brazil offset each other, Ukraine saw the biggest increase (+1.7 MMT) to now sit at 30.7 MMT. The biggest change, however, was a combined 2 MMT cut in #Brazil domestic #corn demand (-1.5 MMT in ‘24/’25, -0.5 MMT in ‘25/’26). This led to a notable uptick in Brazil’s ‘25/’26 #corn ending stocks to 5.96 MMT (~234.6 mbu), up from 3.68 MMT (~144.9 mbu) in Feb and accounted for the majority of the increase at the world level. #oatt

@bprofit09 Fitbit Ace. Didn’t have to add it to a phone plan! Our 10 year old can call and text through the app but only who we set up and it has gps. It’s been a great solution for us!

Any of y’all have some type of smart watch for your kids. Talking 10 year old so gps an texting me is about all I care about. What brand do ya like or have had?

With all happening with global fertilizer, it might be time to consider fertilizer futures. The CME has a 10-ton NOLA urea futures contract designed with farmers in mind. CME code - MFV Have a conversation with your broker. If they need details, have them reach out to me.

@BenBrownMU @ellisce You’re welcome back any time!! I’ll be at CTCC next week!

@ellisce No I believe CTC is next week.

Enjoyed the opportunity to be back in Ohio and see some “old” friends. I moved back to Missouri during Covid and the departure has always felt hallow because. I don’t get to say goodbye. It was good to reconnect.

For urea supply problems: - Qatar/Iran/S.A. supplies blocked due to fighting - Egypt may struggle as Israel shuts down gas production - China already scaling back on exports - Europe still at 75% of normal Could not be happening at a worse time.

Feels like a good time to remind everyone what's at stake in the #fertilizer markets... #oatt

Give FFA Day is COMING! On Thursday, February 26th your donation to the @OhioFFA will go twice as far! Sunrise Cooperative will match donations up to $25,000! Let's support #FFA and grow the future of agriculture together! #FutureLeaders #FFAWeek2026 ohioffa.org/give-ffa-day/

Good stuff Mike, again!

Yet another week of US #corn export inspections blowing past their top-end estimate, coming in at a 14-week high of 78.9 mbu. Weekly #wheat inspections did the same, coming in at an impressive 19.7 mbu. On the opposite end, #soybeans came in below their low-end estimate at only 24.6 mbu. #Milo (sorghum) was solid at 7.9 mbu, remaining well above historical levels for this time of year. #oatt

@apasztor82 Thanks Andy!! Dreem on Deere is for sure #AndyClean !!

Always awesome to see @BaileyElchinger and her husband Nick!!! Good luck tonight!!!!

My favorite twitter post of the year without a doubt!! As always - great work @mattc_fcs this might be the best one yet!!

Rollins just said that the money will be delivered by Feb. 28, 2026, but that every farmer that is able to apply for the funds will be able to know what that number will be by the end of this month. Rollins says total is $11B, and they are holding an extra $1B back for now.

This report is so 6 7

Only adjustment to #soybean balance sheet was changed by the September 30 stocks numbers and the change in production, but that's it as expected. Unfortunately, the market had put in a lot of premium on the "hopes" that USDA would reveal something we didn't know. It didn't. #oatt