Taxonomist

@manonZzmoon @nextbigfuture "That Rocket" = New Glenn? What failures / issues were there with the NG-1 & NG-2 flights (other than NG-1's failed booster recovery)?

@nextbigfuture That Rocket never should have passed the first (2) less than 100 percent Certification flights. The Biden Administration and Jeff Bezo's were actively trying to shut startship down at the time. Lots of $$$$ creased a lot of palms.

Blue Origin New Glenn is likely grounded for 4 months to investigate the upper stage failure on the weekend. ULA Vulcan is grounded because of two Grumman solid rocket booster failures. The satellite launchers Amazon, Space Force and AST Space Mobile have to rely on SpaceX Falcon 9. @aaronburnett @VladSaigau @AST_SpaceMobile @blueorigin @spacex @elonmusk @RandyWKirk1 Amazon LEO needs 10-15 Falcon 9 launches per year from SpaceX. AST Spacemobile needs 10-20 launches per year from SpaceX. US defense space force is moving 70 backlogged launches not launched. by ULA to SpaceX. ULA launched 4 times total in 2-3 years. About $3-4 billion per year in launches need to go to spaceX. SpaceX already has 150-160 launches committed. 130 to Starlink and 20-30 for NASA and others. Can SpaceX surge an added 30 launches in the final half of the year? Amazon LEO- 24 month extension to get 1618 satellites for half of plan. What is actually launching in 2026 (confirmed as of April 21):April 27/28: Two launches this week — •⁠ ⁠ULA Atlas V (LA-06) → 29 satellites (SLC-41, Cape Canaveral). •⁠ ⁠Arianespace Ariane 64 (LE-02) → 32 satellites (Kourou, French Guiana). Lucky get one per month of Atlas 5 or Ariane. they need about 30 Falcon 9 launches Rest of 2026 outlook cannot realistically see Amazon ramping to 4 launches per month. They have the remaining Atlas V rockets. Ariane 6 (18 total contracted. pace is ~1 every 1–2 months initially). Increasing Falcon 9 usage (24–27 per flight. Amazon is adding more missions to bridge gaps). Amazon has launched about 240 of the 3200 planned Amazon LEO satellites, compete against the 10,300 satellites Starlink has in orbit and adding 3000 satellites this year. They are buying Globalstar for 11.7 billiion for DTC (direct to cellphone) spectrum. Starlink already has 650 DTC satellites and those are already in orbit and servicing millions of T-mobile and other global customers. ULA Vulcan rockets using Blue Origin BE4 engines cannot fly for now. Failed solid rocket boosters. Blue Origin second stage failed to AST Spacemobile satellite into right orbit. FAA mishap probe grounds new glenn. Analysts and space community consensus point to a similar or longer delay (2–4+ months) because this is an upper-stage engine issue. Next launch is NASA payload. Could be no commercial launch til late in 2026 or early 2027. Amazon new direct to satellite service is mostly after they get 3000 internet service satellites up. halfway maybe in 2028. Don’t see many until 2030 without massive SpaceX launch reliance SpaceX will have the capacity, but bezos must swallow pride and order primarily spacex. And get satellite production sped up.

@AngryAstro66 @GregLanguage @planet4589 Since they were built to fit a 5m fairing, F9's 5.2m one will do fine. Launches will be mass constrained, either 3 or 4 BlueBirds at a time, depending on how well they trim weight. (And yes, Ariane 6 does have a 5.4m fairing.)

@AngryAstro66 @GregLanguage @planet4589 Aha! I missed these two which show BB7 (the boring-looking cylinder) being encapsulated. Scads of room to spare.

ASTS confirms unrecoverable failure but without any specific orbital parameters businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

@YourTrueAleks @thefrozencity @ellienotnora but whose orientation isn't publicly known. The joke is to instead interpret it as meaning there are other astronauts we don't know of, ancient ones whose tales have been lost to time, some of whom were gay. It then takes it a step further, specifying ancient lesbian astronauts

@YourTrueAleks @thefrozencity @ellienotnora I'm glad you asked, because I too missed the joke at first. It plays off the "first known" part of "first known LGBTQ+ person to travel to space", which was, of course, an acknowledgement that there may be others among the previous 119 spacefarers (including 2 women), ...

choosing to read this as suggesting ancient lesbians possibly had spacefaring technology

@david_e_lang @MoeDC4 @SciGuySpace SpaceX could have made two iteration of improvements to the Polaris Dawn suits and still be far, far away from a suitable lunar surface suit. Folks tracking SpaceX job announcements haven't seen any indication of them starting development on a PLSS, have they?

SpaceX is a continuous improvement company. They don't do big announcements for each change, in fact, they may not announce the change at all. for something like suits that are custom made for every user, it probably means that they are never re-used and so each one is probably the latest and greatest as of the time it was made, with one that's started a few days later (overlapping construction) possibly seeing small tweaks. But they are the only US company I know of that's actually producing suits rather than planning to produce suits (no, their suits would not be suitable for the moon landing, but would work for Artemis 3

This line in the new OIG report on NASA's next-generation spacesuits is interesting in light of the recent debate about commercial LEO destinations. oig.nasa.gov/audits/nasas-a…

@CatboyRocketry @david_e_lang @SciGuySpace SpaceX chose not to bid on the xEVAS contract. (Axiom & Collins were the only firms to submit offerers.)

@david_e_lang @SciGuySpace I don't think SpaceX cares anymore. NASA gave the contract to Axiom so SpaceX will just do their own thing. And you can bet it will be cheaper and probably better in the end

@deltaVee42 @xlrndo @DJSnM @planet4589 Yeah. Barring situations involving a strong Oberth effect, I'd think once on orbit they'd have more delta-v were they able to cleanly jettison one of those engines, lowering their empty mass. (Not suggesting this as a strategy.)

@xlrndo @DJSnM @planet4589 During the 1st burn thrust is important to stay out of the atmosphere so engine out would likely be LOM. But once you're in orbit thrust is less critical, so absent one of the reasons @DJSnM mentioned one would expect single engine failure during the 2nd burn to be recoverable.

Question for those more expert on rocket engines than me: if the BE-3U fires at low thrust, does the stage try to fire longer to compensate? How plausible that it fired the normal amount and had prop left over for a preprogrammed deorbit burn, albeit now in the wrong place?

@grok @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 😞

@BeastsInJars @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06

As we know, New Glenn's upper stage failed to conduct its planned circularization burn; this left the payload in an unrecoverable low orbit. We have tracking data on the payload however, there is no data provided for the New Glenn upper-stage at this time. It's safe to assume it did not complete a disposal burn. New Glenn upper stage and payload will re-enter within the next 4-5 days. New Glenn upper stage dry mass is around 25 metric tons and measures in at ~ 77ft x 23ft which is comparable to the Long March 5B stage that the CASC left in orbit a few years ago. New Glenn's upper stage poses a significant risk to locations between 36.11 degrees N/S latitude and will generate a large debris field. If it re-enters over land, largely intact pieces may be found, possibly as large as 5 feet or more in diameter. Lighter-weight spherical objects such as COPVs are expected to partially/completely survive re-entry.

@grok @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 Ooof! (and *sigh*) I'm guessing grok's image generation toolkit is still under development. @Windrunner_24, here you go. I didn't shade it, but the area in question is between these two parallels.

@BeastsInJars @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 Got it—here's the accurate Mercator projection with a simple, straight horizontal shaded band precisely from 43°N to 43°S (no ellipse distortion).

@grok @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 @grok, please generate such an image.

Yes, you're right—a simple horizontal band from 43°N to 43°S on the Mercator map would have been both quicker and fully accurate for the latitude-limited risk zone. The ellipse was a sloppy visual shortcut that distorted the parallels and created misleading gaps (like eastern Australia). Appreciate the precise callout.

@grok @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 @grok, shouldn't the quickest visual shorthand on that projection have been the true and accurate representation, namely a simple horizontal band from 43°N to 43°S?

Good catch on the map flaws. That elliptical overlay was a quick visual shorthand on the projection, but it distorted the boundaries and left spots like eastern Australia misleadingly clear. The real risk zone is the full latitude band from 43°N to 43°S—straight parallels spanning the globe east-west. Nordkapp at 71°N is well outside it. Exact reentry location only pins down in the final hours.

@grok @Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 Hey @grok, why did you represent a 43°N to 43°S latitude band as an ellipse on a Mercator projection (somehow leaving eastern Australia in the clear), and why is its 43°N boundary shown intersecting Nordkapp at 71°N?

@Windrunner_24 @Dillonshrop06 Yeah, it's a huge swath—roughly 43°N to 43°S latitude due to the upper stage's orbital inclination. Covers most of the populated world, but we'll only pinpoint the exact reentry zone in the final hours as it decays. Tracking updates will help narrow it fast.

@Dennis_Gregorio @SpaceBasedFox Yeah, my "are these in the same scale" would be from wondering for a moment if BM Mk2 had been scaled *up*, as I'm so used to seeing the post-HLS-award to-scale images of Starship HLS vs Apollo LEM, National Team ILV, and Dynetics ALPACA.

@SpaceBasedFox Someone should put a scale model of the Apollo LEM next to them. The Blue Origin MK2 Lander isn’t small. It’s more a matter of SpaceX HLS being yuuuuuge…

Love how this tour is mostly people from a wide variety of backgrounds, not necessarily familiar with the Artemis program. When we got to these HLS models the first question was “are these in the same scale??”

@S_R_Anders @lawfare @dbyman @TylerMcBrien @nkorpett Looking forward to it!

@BeastsInJars @lawfare @dbyman @TylerMcBrien @nkorpett We were off last week, but are back on this week!

It's the “Deeply Iran-ic” Edition! On this week's Rational Security, @S_R_Anders, @dbyman, @TylerMcBrien, and @nkorpett discuss the week’s biggest Iran-focused news stories, including the two-week ceasefire announced by President Trump on Tuesday, the president's outlandish rhetoric leading up to the ceasefire, and more.

@Arkshol93 @ulrich_elk37910 @antiAntiperson On which flight? I sure thought I remembered NG-1 upper stage having a performance shortfall yet still meeting its mission objectives, but I can find mention of that now. 🤷‍♂️

@ulrich_elk37910 @antiAntiperson NG upper stage previously had issues

To be absolutely and completely honest: Thank god the failure happened now and with this payload, could you imagine how far back a failure would set us if BM Mk1 Endurance flew instead?

@eric_sdi @DJSnM Yep. orlandosentinel.com/2026/04/20/faa…

@DJSnM Will this require an investigation and the delays that come with that?

Comparison of the size of GS2 and the Long March 5B core which has previously made headlines as a large piece of space debris in an uncontrolled deorbit scenario. There are no official numbers on the mass of GS2, however I expect its construction will be more light weight than a booster stage designed to have solid rocket motors attached to it.

@Osinttechnical All the dude wants is for Khamenei Jr. to write him a Love Letter. Is that asking too much?

Trump, in a new post this morning, says that "Israel never talked me into the war with Iran... Just like the results in Venezuela, the results in Iran will be amazing."