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Behind the scenes, Trump will likely signal to Hamas allies and particularly the BRICS countries that the U.S. is fully prepared to defend Israel by any means necessary unless a peace treaty is reached. This treaty would be similar to his approach during his last term—extremely advantageous for Israel and supportive of its settlement policies.
Why peace and not the continuation of political goals, or even a total assault on Gaza? Globally, Israel is losing public support, even though it controls much of the media and shapes a one-sided narrative. The old story of “evil Hamas terrorists and us, the righteous defenders” no longer holds. Israel needs peace to lock in its gains without losing face. This would allow them, after a few years—when the memory has faded—to resume expansion following another Hamas attack or similar incident, this time with renewed public backing.
If this fails and the BRICS countries stand their ground, Trump will likely go on the offensive with rhetoric like “We, the free West, THE democracy, the great America, against the oppressive, China-backed Arab states that disrespect human rights.” It’s likely that they would create an emotionally charged pretext for war, similar to the “incubator lie” with Iran, or perhaps orchestrate a dramatic incident akin to 9/11. Trump would do whatever it takes to justify supporting Israel even more aggressively than the Biden administration.
Let’s just hope I’m wrong and that this time Trump will back up his promises with real actions, finally dismantling the Deep State to liberate the U.S.—despite his family ties with Chabad Lubavitch.
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