Bitcoin Fair Value

Bitcoin has plenty of narratives.

Bitcoin is currently trading far below its power-law fair value.

Bitcoin doesn’t need a new narrative every day.

📊 Bitcoin Composite Valuation Bands — BTC is currently 42.1% below its power-law fair value ($122,327). Zone: Deep Undervaluation. #Bitcoin #BTC bitcoinfairvalue.com/charts

@theradaman Actually, btc has inflation. It is called mining.

Money is stored time and energy. So ask yourself: Why would you store your life in something designed to lose value? That’s the dollar. Bitcoin has no inflation.

@KrisAltairtech Hi

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@thebtcdad Hi

First say 'Hi'. Then let's ALL follow 100 new accounts from the replies in the comments. Right now, lets go! 👍

Wow. Our metric has never been this low.

VanEck just said Bitcoin fear has peaked. BTC dropped to $68,900 overnight. It bounced back to $70,975 this morning. The BFV Score is at 7 out of 100. That is Deep Undervaluation. Fair value is $122,194. BTC is trading 41.9% below where the model says it should be. Fear and Greed: 11. Extreme Fear. The last time fear was this extreme, Bitcoin was significantly higher 12 months later. Every time. The crowd is selling the fear. The model is buying it.

Citi just predicted Bitcoin won't make a new ATH in 2026. They said the same thing in 2018. BTC went up 1,950%. They said the same thing in 2020. BTC went up 1,200%. They said the same thing in 2022. BTC went up 300%. They said the same thing in November 2022. BTC went up 350%. Today: BFV Score 5 out of 100. The deepest undervaluation reading of this entire cycle. The model does not care what Citi thinks. It cares about price relative to fair value. BTC is 43% below fair value right now. Bookmark this chart. Wall Street is wrong at every bottom. Every. Single. Time.

🚨 Bitcoin ETFs just recorded $1.16 billion in inflows over 7 consecutive days. BTC price dropped 8% over the same period. The crowd calls this a bear market. Here is what it actually is. Institutions are buying every single dip. Retail is selling every single dip. This exact pattern appeared at the bottom of every major Bitcoin correction since 2020. Smart money accumulates while sentiment collapses. BFV Score today: 6 out of 100. Fair value: $122,096. Current price: $70,038. The divergence between inflows and price is not a warning sign. It is the setup.

Bitcoin OGs just dumped $117 million in BTC overnight. The crowd is panicking. Here is what the model says. BFV Score: 6 out of 100. That is the deepest undervaluation reading of this entire cycle. BTC is at $70,227. Fair value is $122,079. The gap between price and fair value is 42.5%. Fear and Greed: 23. Extreme Fear. Every single time the BFV Score has been this low, Bitcoin was significantly higher 12 months later. The OGs are selling. The model is screaming buy. One of them has been right every cycle. It is not the OGs.

@randrewcworth Today the BFV Score just dropped to 9 out of 100. That is the most extreme undervaluation reading of this entire cycle. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26. The crowd is terrified.

Will continue to add on further weakness today $BTCI

@thebtcdad Institutions are buying 5x more Bitcoin every day than miners produce. Post-halving, miners release ~450 BTC per day into the market. US spot ETFs absorbed an average of 2,100+ BTC per day in March.

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@maliki_orphanag Thanks! Right back to you.

@BitcoinFV Much love from Uganda

BFV Score: 10/100 Status: Deep Undervaluation Bitcoin at $73,265 — sitting 39.9% below its power-law fair value of $121,986. Score of 10/100 means BTC is cheaper than 90% of all historical days since 2011. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26 (Fear). Retail is out. Institutions are in. This is what a generational accumulation window looks like. The math doesn't care about your feelings. #Bitcoin #BTC

Institutions are buying 5x more Bitcoin every day than miners produce. Post-halving, miners release ~450 BTC per day into the market. US spot ETFs absorbed an average of 2,100+ BTC per day in March. On March 5 alone, they bought 7,100 BTC in a single day. That is a supply shock. The market hasn't priced it in yet. BFV Score: 9/100 — the model says this is Deep Undervaluation. The math is not subtle.

The last time my model hit this level, Bitcoin was at $17,000. Everyone called it dead. It wasn't. Today the BFV Score just dropped to 9 out of 100. That is the most extreme undervaluation reading of this entire cycle. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26. The crowd is terrified. My data says this is exactly when you should be paying attention. Not financial advice. But the math has never been wrong. Bookmark this.

The Fed just held rates at 3.75%. Markets expected it. Bitcoin didn't care. Here's the macro picture that actually matters: → BTC fair value (power-law model): $121,988 → BTC current price: ~$73,000 → Gap: 40.2% below fair value → BFV Score: 10/100 — Deep Undervaluation Every time the Fed has held rates since 2024, the fair value gap has eventually closed. Not immediately — but it always closes. The model doesn't react to FOMC. It just keeps pointing to the same number. #Bitcoin #FOMC

Bitcoin ETFs just logged 7 consecutive days of net inflows — $1.2B total. BlackRock's IBIT alone pulled in $169M yesterday. Meanwhile retail sentiment is Fear (26/100 on the Fear & Greed Index). Institutions are buying. Retail is scared. Agree or disagree: The ETF inflow streak is more important than today's FOMC decision for Bitcoin's next move. A) Agree — institutional demand is the real driver B) Disagree — Fed macro still controls everything C) Both matter equally #Bitcoin #BTC