CSO Analysis

Malinwa schiet weinig op met de verdiende gelijkmaker.

Kelly N'Mai - Salford City - 21yo ⚽️7 goals / 🅰️ 3 assists in all competitions 💡1.63 chances created p90 🎯1.08 successful crosses p90 👣51.3 Touches p90 ⚡️1.93 successful dribbles p90 👣7.41 touches in opposition box p90 With his contract at Salford City running out this summer it is no surprise clubs are interested in Kelly N’Mai. His pace and ball control make him a real live wire and his positional versatility is excellent. His goal and assist vs Barrow earlier in the month were a great showcase of his abilities. His goal especially, showing his comfort with both feet whilst driving at pace, and controlled, towards defenders.

I see lots of discussion around xG vs. big chances created, and I want to set the record straight: xG is objectively a better measure than big chances created for measuring attacking effectiveness. why? by definition, it provides more of a complete picture. xG and BCC are stupidly highly correlated - 93.2% of the variance between one can be explained by the other. This makes sense... bcc = chances created with an xG that is X value or higher, so for starters, the one metric is based on the other. Also, since bcc needs to be >= x value, opportunities that are "bcc" will take up most of the total xG pool. When you compare BCC and xG to goals for; both are extremely predictive, with xG getting the slight edge. Again, why? Because low xG, non-BCC chances can turn into goals too. It literally captures more of the picture. So, obviously the goal is to have many big chances created, because that just means higher expected goal tallies. But is it better, over a full season, to have 75 xG from 1,500 chances (all being 0.05 xG), or 75 xG from 150 chances (all 0.50 xG). Answer: there is no difference, as the probability you will score 75 goals is the exact same for both instances. 75 pounds of bricks fall at the same speed as 75 pounds of feathers. The difference lies in how you will see those 100 goals manifest... more steady, predictable conversion from the 0.50 xG chances (more games w/ 1-2 goals), and much wider swings from the 0.05 xG strategy (more games w/ 0 goals, but also more games with 4-5 goals). BCC is a great stat for looking at chance quality, but in the long run, xG simply matters more than BCC, because it includes all of what BCC illustrates, and adds even more color.