Confluence Investment Management

Our latest Confluence Mailbag podcast episode is out now, where we unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship & consider the likelihood of recession, examining the trade-offs when policymakers intervene to prevent downturns. confluenceinvestment.com/category/podca…

China continues to seek geopolitical advantage by beefing up its armed forces. We give an update on the US-China military rivalry in terms of "defense economics" & examine how China's high defense spending could challenge the US position as global hegemon. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

US foreign policy and trade policy are likely to experience major changes under the new Trump administration. We examine the potential upsides and downsides of these changes, particularly with regard to US alliances, and how they might impact investments. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

Israel’s Pager Caper & Supply Chain Security: National security might never be the same after pagers mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants. We explore how this attack will likely lead to big, costly changes in global supply chains. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

As election day nears, we explore foreign policy differences between the presidential candidates & investment implications. We characterize them according to the main foreign policy archetypes, consider potential cabinet members & analyze their priorities. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

Is a strong US dollar good or bad for investors? This week, we discuss prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world & explain the process our macro team uses to measure the strength of the dollar, providing guideposts for thinking about exchange rates. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

Confluence has discussed how geopolitical tensions have led to a global fracturing into geopolitical and economic blocs. To gauge their impact, we've developed a quantitative method to predict the blocs' compositions, and this week we update this analysis. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice as voters recently cast ballots for the European Parliament. We examine the implications at the EU level and within key EU countries, along with investment ramifications. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

The Confluence macro team updates the geopolitical outlook, focusing on "big picture" conditions that will dominate the int'l landscape. A key theme discusses how uncertainty reigns as globalization gives way to a new period of Great Power competition. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

In our recent geopolitical report, we examine how the COVID-19 pandemic changed the US labor supply, focusing on 2 key developments that we would argue essentially amount to a labor market reform, perhaps the most significant in decades. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

Conflict in the Middle East is one of the most persistent themes in current events, revealing many major fault lines that run through society, politics & economics. We briefly review these from a geopolitical standpoint & discuss investment implications. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

The changing face of war makes it difficult for investors to identify exactly when war begins & ends. In this Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report, we consider whether the US might already be at war with China & offer some guidance for how investors can prepare. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

The recent rally in uranium appears to be more than a flash in the pan. We discuss a less-recognized source of uranium demand that could drive prices higher: China’s expansion in its nuclear weapons arsenal & the possibility of a global nuclear arms race. confluenceinvestment.com/asset-bi-weekl…

Is Japan Back? What's behind the country's surge and is there room to grow from here? We examine Japan's resurgence within the context of past periods of stagnation, recent initiatives in the country & the intensifying US-China rivalry. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

Fed officials can greatly influence investor behavior through the words they speak or write. Confluence discusses how the Fed may be employing its forward guidance tool to create a range for 10-year Treasury yields & how investors might profit as a result. confluenceinvestment.com/asset-allocati…

Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

Last October, the Confluence Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium & uranium producers. We explain what drove the committee to make this new investment & what they expect from it in the future. Listen to the most recent podcast: confluenceinvestment.com/category/podca…

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Posen vs. Pettis: Is current Chinese leadership to blame for China's economic problems, or is it something deeper? Bill O'Grady addresses why this question is so important & examines the differing viewpoints of China analysts Michael Pettis and Adam Posen. confluenceinvestment.com/weekly-geopoli…

How painful will it be for the US government to finance debt from the rising federal budget deficit? In this report, Confluence examines the central question of who wants US Treasurys and how fixed income investors might navigate the changing environment. confluenceinvestment.com/asset-allocati…