مكيافيللي

🇸🇦🇮🇶 On Iraq–Saudi pipeline (IPSA) revival discussions: Iraq approaching #SaudiArabia to revive the IPSA pipeline is unlikely to gain traction, for several structural reasons. First, ownership is not in Iraq’s favour. The pipeline has been out of service since 1990 and was later taken over by Saudi Arabia in 2001 as part of settlements linked to #Iraq’s Gulf War reparations to Saudi Arabia and #Kuwait, under UN compensation frameworks.* Iraq owed tens of billions of dollars to Saudi Arabia (~$30bn) and Kuwait (>$10bn) following the Iran–Iraq war, with Gulf states having provided extensive financial support including revenues of the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral zone, during the conflict. Second, the asset itself is technically challenged. The ~1.6mn b/d line has been offline for over three decades and has not undergone sustained maintenance, raising significant questions around its operation. Parts of the IPSA system have since been repurposed and integrated into Saudi Arabia’s domestic pipeline network following the UN resolution 687, while the remainder of the line has been idle for over three decades, implying significant rehabilitation requirements before any potential restart. Third, the issue is not just technical or legal, it is strategic. Any reactivation also must come with alignment at a time when regional dynamics remain strained. #Iran-aligned militias operating out of Iraq played a role in targeting Saudi and Kuwaiti territory during the recent war. Taken together, this points to a broader reality: Iraq’s leadership is making such statements for internal consumption, while scrambling for export alternatives because they know the math. With over 90pc dependence on oil revenues, a prolonged disruption (6.5 weeks now) in #Hormuz risks pushing the economy toward a hard landing. #oott Note on the resolution: •The legal basis is tied broadly to UN Compensation Commission (UNCC) mechanisms under UN Security Council Resolution 687 (1991), which governed Iraq’s reparations after the Gulf War. •Saudi’s takeover of the IPSA pipeline was part of bilateral settlement arrangements within that framework (not a single standalone “pipeline resolution”). 📷 @MeesEnergy