@UnintendedCons5 Expecting a major buying opportunity… we shall see
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Hugo Manenti
2.9K posts
Hugo Manenti
@HugoManenti
Pro Investor @etoro. Check my portfolio 👉 https://t.co/eLmlyNbBoD Ex Private Equity and M&A professional.
شامل ہوئے Nisan 2021
158 فالونگ1.9K فالوورز
If Trump doesn't annouce a clear "Walk away", WTI prices go:
Spoiler alert - they cannot walk
#oott
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@BlacklionCTA Learned behaviours are hard to shed. And AI progress in the background is making it twice as hard
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The complacency, fear of missing the crash in oil, and rally in equities is real. As evidenced by the past 24 hour NDX buying orgy.
Monolith Investments@variance_swap
A month later, the experts remain concerned. The generalists are shorting oil hand over fist. Retail is buying inverse oil ETFs. Be careful out there.
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@EconstratPB Also higher oil *should* lead to a supply response that benefits a meaningful share of the US economy
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@Rory_Johnston Iran collects a toll, makes sure oil stays > $100 but does not entirely wreck the world economy. Who will do something about it?
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My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are:
🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait
🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers
🤷🏻♂️ 30% all the other bizarre ad hoc scenarios one can imagine (and based on my replies, there are PLENTY)
WIDE range of entirely reasonable base case price forecasts, but they're all safely higher than pre-war levels.
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@VKMacro Also the counterparty doesn't have a clear interest in quick de-escalation this time
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@UnintendedCons5 @realDonaldTrump He's a PINO - President In Name Only
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Anyone want to tell Trump Pezeshkian has been President since 2024?
"new"
Its so shrill - @realDonaldTrump has lost the plot on Iran
#oott
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I wonder who is this guy's PR firm. Pretty sure "FOMO" and "DYOR" are not staple terms of islamic revolutionaries...
PS: Iran seems VERY aware of its impact on capital markets
x.com/mb_ghalibaf/st…
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Out-of-context quotes + manufactured FOMO = War profiteering 101. Do Your Own Research.
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@BlacklionCTA Which is to say - I think one should consider shorting this bounce
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It's unacceptable, yet Trump won't do anything about it and no one else can / will take on a China and Russia-backed Iran.
Puzzles me why the market is so optimistic. I personally expected that we'd bottom on US boots on the ground actually starting to clear the Strait... not this.
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“Iran sovereignty over the strait is an unacceptable outcome.”
Everything else in this conflict is noise until this is universally acknowledged and the key participant - 🇺🇸 - appears clueless.
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche@JoumannaTV
On the “fate of the Strait” Two developments in the last day 1) Trump has de-linked the war from the Strait re-opening 2) appears to be a global coordinated push to re-open it. UK PM Starmer saying they will host an international meeting this weekend. GCC states also reiterating that a solution needs to be found. Iran sovereignty over the strait is an unacceptable outcome
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Cancelling the suspension of soldiers doing what they weren't supposed to be doing because the act that they did was for a notorious MAGA guy is the definition of rewarding political loyalty and not reinforcing right from wrong
So incompetent
Pete Hegseth@PeteHegseth
Thank you @KidRock. @USArmy pilots suspension LIFTED. No punishment. No investigation. Carry on, patriots. 🇺🇸
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@Big_Orrin Yup. Now we might be about to do it in reverse. Traders caught short without any physical barrels to deliver
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@Big_Orrin The most liquid market in the world - isn’t it what they used to say about oil? Well, it turns out that price discovery is dead.
I wonder where Brent and TTF trade when there’s no molecule available
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@darioperkins Pretty sure Italy wins the Calcio World Cup anyway
youtube.com/watch?v=qHLOuZ…
YouTube
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@darioperkins Did you see how happy the Bosnians were? Running around freely! Like we liberated them. That's the real victory.
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$OIH $ESI.TO $HP $NBR $PD.TO $PTEN
US rigs by operator/contractor via TD/Enverus. Private oil operators seem to have given up the prior week gain, possibly rigs moving. Gas rigs may have also peaked for now, already -10% from the 150 top 3 weeks ago 🤷♂️
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@JohnRei39666313 Hasn't done much since TBD! Risk to assets in the Middle East balancing longer-term benefits
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@HugoManenti $Rig CLOSED at 6.47 Friday before bombing started Saturday. FYG
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10 days and the Strait is still closed and - reportedly - mined. Pretty close to a worse case scenario.
Yet, since the war started:
- $AMTM down 3.5%
- $RIG down 3.4%
- $TDW down 3.1% (after jumping on earnings)
- $PUMP flat
- $AR up only 1.7%
- $FANG up only 2.5%
While $IGV is up 5%.
Thanks for playing Hugo
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@Rory_Johnston You're saying we can't teleport crude straight to refinery? And then to my tank? Wow
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oil on water cannot be drawn to zero
commercial inventories cannot be drawn to zero
if either is at zero the oil industry quite simply no longer exists
GIF
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