tranquille

A must read piece of analysis for $sive by Mikael🔥

$YSS Ships T1TL Satellites to Launch Site – Major Indirect Win for $SIVE Great news for York Space Systems, yesterday they announced the initial shipment of their second production lot of T1TL spacecraft to the launch site. More than 20 York-built satellites are scheduled to launch this summer on a dedicated SpaceX Falcon 9. While the headlines focus entirely on York, smart money is looking at the hidden supply chain winner is $SIVE. Earlier this year, York Space Systems expanded its vertical integration by acquiring ALL.SPACE, a leader in next-generation multi-orbit ground terminals. Sivers Semiconductors is the single-source, exclusive supplier of critical Ka-band mmWave chips embedded inside ALL.SPACE's revolutionary Hydra terminals. As York rapidly deploys its massive Tranche 1 Transport Layer (T1TL) satellite constellation for the U.S. Space Development Agency, the demand for high-performance ground infrastructure scales in lockstep. More operational satellites in orbit directly dictate the mass deployment of ALL.SPACE ground stations. York’s flawless execution and strong defense contract revenue guarantee the financial backing needed to rapidly accelerate the production ramp-up of ALL.SPACE terminals. Every satellite York sends into orbit strengthens the ecosystem for ALL.SPACE ground terminals. Since $SIVE hardware is hardcoded into these terminal architectures for U.S. defense applications, York's blockbuster summer launch is highly bullish for Sivers' long-term Satcom revenue pipeline.

OK，终于等到消息了，并且终于不再是关于伊朗谈判的无聊消息了。 那么以当下这个消息出现之后来看，下周的路径一个可能的Bull case是（我没有深究Trump到底要干嘛，要是他再打个嘴炮没有实质另说）： 周一来一个比较大的反弹 周二波动，冲高可能回落，因为周三盘前CPI，既然周五对于非农数据做出了激烈反应，没有理由周二就无视CPI。 周三的CPI，Headline的不重要主要看Core Cpi，如果Core CPI是在0.3或者以下，市场会继续嗨并且不会太在意周四的PPI数据，如果录的0.4或以上，市场将不得不很在意周四的PPI数据。 以下四种情景： 情景一：headline 热，core 温和 比如 headline +0.5%，core +0.2%。 这是相对最好结果。说明油价冲击明显，但核心扩散有限。债券可能松一口气，QQQ/SOX 有技术上继续反弹空间。 情景二：headline 热，core 也 0.3% 这是基准但不舒服。Fed 不会降息，市场会继续交易“higher for longer / 甚至 hike risk”。股市可能先反弹后犹豫，具体看 shelter 和 core goods。 情景三：headline 热，core 0.4% 这是风险资产最不想看到的。说明4月 core 热不是一次性，通胀传导进入核心。2年期收益率会很敏感，QQQ/SOX 压力大。 情景四：headline 不高，但 core 高 这反而最糟糕。因为它说明问题不是油，而是底层通胀。市场会直接交易 Fed 更鹰。 我个人希望Core Cpi不要高于0.3%，因为周四还有PPI. 当前的情况大概就是生产者吸收了油价和其他各种成本的上升，但是没有向消费者转移，所以PPI本身预期就是差的，只要不是超预期的差就好。

$SIVE YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH 🚀

说的太好了@sive 🔥

$SIVE Sivers' moat in one sentence: Sivers provides the laser arrays for nearly every major player trying to build an alternative to the Nvidia/Broadcom duopoly.

Hmm as for life experiences: -> Currently doing fintech stuff (helps with understanding financial statements, dilution, margins, valuations, etc). -> venture capital stuff (Series A/B company analysis, help to understand TAM, thematic shifts, how a company could grow) -> previously AI research building different models (idk, just technical) -> some semi work (have some patents, worked on setting some architectures), mainly high level. Kinda put them together, and it helps a lot with current AI themes.

This is former CEO at Ayar Labs now at NVIDIA, commenting Ayar Labs CEO announcement about NVIDIA NVLink Fusion. Connecting well into the possible opportunity in this 3rd part that Goldman has yet to model.

It’s still a secret because people are still questioning it’s importance @sive. It will be no longer a secret once everyone agrees it is important!

@SeekingAlpha Shared my Seeking Alpha "SA Asks" expert take on undervalued AI proxies. Deep dived into $SIVE and $ALMU photonics tech. seekingalpha.com/news/4601170-s…

A Recap of the Logic Behind Shorting Semiconductors, Plus a Few Thoughts on Monday Most of this was already laid out in last week's weekly report. franktrading.substack.com/p/06012026-tra… Here I'll cover just the single most important point: the prime mover of this crash was never fundamentals — it was leverage. To gauge just how much leverage had piled up, I rely mainly on two indicators — VIXEQ and COR1M（I learnt them from @labubu_trader — supplemented by the call/put ratio and a few other sentiment indicators. Let me first explain how these two indicators work. VIXEQ (the Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index) measures implied volatility at the single-stock level. VIX uses SPX index options and captures "the fear of the index as a whole"; VIXEQ instead runs a VIX-like calculation on each constituent's single-stock options and then aggregates them by market-cap weight, capturing "the fear of the average individual stock." When single-stock call buying turns extremely aggressive and speculation concentrates in names like MU, SNDK, INTC, and NOK, those single-stock options get bid up to very rich levels, and VIXEQ's premium over VIX is stretched to an extreme — the most direct read on single-stock speculation and leverage. COR1M (the Cboe 1-Month Implied Correlation Index) measures the market's expected correlation among constituents. Index variance ≈ average constituent variance × correlation, so when individual stocks are all rising but rising independently of one another (with capital scattered across each name's own story), correlation gets compressed to rock-bottom. COR1M closed at 6.33, meaning implied correlation has already approached its historical low. Put together, these two indicators describe the same structure: everyone is levered up, betting on mutually independent single stocks (mostly semiconductors), while at the same time many hedge funds are long semiconductors and short value stocks — so the index gets artificially flattened. The greatest risk in this structure is that any single shock can, in an instant, snap correlation back from near 0 to 1 — every name falls together, and all the leverage is forced to unwind at once. A crash, in essence, is just the process of correlation reverting to 1. So as early as the start of last week, I had already recognized this enormous leverage risk. That is the prime mover of the decline. As for what the trigger was — it really doesn't matter. AVGO's earnings, SemiAnalysis's negative commentary on MU, that so-called "overheated" NFP, Meta's secondary offering — these were all nothing more than that single gunshot at Sarajevo. It's exactly like silver in late January this year: Warsh taking office was also just a trigger; the real reason was that the leveraged capital loaded with unrealized gains, built up over the course of the parabolic rally, began to flee — setting off a long-on-long stampede, longs trampling longs, the more they sold the more it fell, the more it fell the more they sold. Structure determines direction; the catalyst only determines timing. As for the short itself: I started with just a 1%-sized SMH put spread. In a market like this it's very hard to call exactly which day it cracks, but we can preset a level. Our preset level was 7495 — the HVL (high vol level). Above 7495, dealers are net positive gamma, which suppresses volatility; once 7495 breaks, positive gamma flips to negative gamma, dealers are forced to sell more the more it falls, manufacturing even greater systemic selling pressure. Adding to the short at that level carries the highest win rate. It's not about guessing the top — it's about waiting for the structure itself to flip short, for the dealers themselves to become forced sellers, and only then making the move. There isn't much else to say. Oh, one extra note on my view for Monday. A systemic crisis is still brewing in the Korean market. To describe the most dangerous left tail, it would roughly look like this: if SK Hynix opens limit-down on Monday, it gives the 2x Hynix ETF (currently the world's largest single-stock ETF) no window at all to de-risk — it can't sell hedges into a locked limit-down board, can't de-lever, and so is forced to carry far more than 2x leverage into the next day. Once Hynix sells off further the following session, this ETF gets blown through entirely — possibly even liquidated — and once the panic spreads directly from Seoul to Hong Kong and on to the rest of the world, it triggers an even larger secondary crisis. But in all likelihood, Korea will step in to prop things up. So let's pray for Korea.

Reflections from a Seven-Year Shareholder: Why Sivers Semiconductors / $SIVE Was Always Destined for Greatness After nearly seven years as a shareholder in Sivers Semiconductors, I have watched this company evolve from an overlooked Swedish deeptech player into a force at the intersection of photonics, wireless communications, AI infrastructure, and strategic defense technologies. The recent surge in the share price is not a surprise to those of us who have followed the story closely it is the logical unfolding of a thesis many of us articulated years ago when few were listening. From the moment I first dug into the company, its potential felt enormous and profoundly underappreciated. The technology advanced lasers for co-packaged optics in AI data centers, beamforming ICs for 5G/6G and SATCOM, and full-duplex arrays for electronic warfare sits at the heart of multiple secular megatrends. Yet for years, the market fixated on quarterly losses, development costs, and execution risks while largely ignoring the customer pipeline, partnerships, and technological edge. Where Unicorns Are Born This is how real winners emerge. History is clear: transformative companies are rarely discovered in consensus comfort zones. They are unearthed where sentiment is exhausted, where weak hands have capitulated, and where the narrative is dominated by skepticism. Sivers spent years in that crucible not for the faint-hearted. You had to immerse yourself in the details: the photonics platform’s unique indium phosphide capabilities and its work with hyperscalers, AI data center players, $AAPL (sensing) and Win Semiconductors, along with key partners such as Jabil and GlobalFoundries; the wireless division’s tier-1 engagements with names like Nokia, BAE Systems, SATCOM operators and the U.S. government itself. Companies and institutions of that caliber do not collaborate, co-develop, or plan multi-year programs with you unless there is real substance and a clear path forward. That, for me, is the only validation you truly need. Add to that the expanding opportunity pipeline now approaching $800 million and strategic validations like repeat US CHIPS Act funding, and the picture becomes very clear. Bears and headline-chasers thrive on the opposite approach. Swedish media have produced more than 50 negative articles in recent times the positive ones you can count on one hand. It is a witch hunt. They obsessively highlight risk, risk, risk, with almost no mention of the enormous potential. How can anyone take them seriously? They have no skin in the game. If they could invest successfully, they wouldn’t be working for newspapers. They pretend to be all-knowing, but the truth is no one knows exactly where technology and the market are heading. After two decades working with IT companies large and small I understand both the tech and the market. That is why I am bullish, and why this development does not surprise me. The same goes for the short sellers. One recent 43-page “analysis” packed with incorrect assumptions and misinformation was clearly designed to create fear and doubt. I could refute every single point, but why give them more oxygen? Notably, they don’t even dare to hold a meaningful disclosed short position. That is weaker than their analysis. I put real money on the table and take real risk. Please increase your shorts. I am waiting for you to go under. Leadership and Shareholder Transitions: A Healthy Reset Some former insiders and larger holders have exited. I am not surprised I am relieved. They did not deserve to be part of the journey that is now unfolding, a journey that is still far from over. Erik Fällström and his associates supported the company for many years, and for that we are grateful. But the attempts to extract personal gain crossed a line most notably trying to spin off the photonics division into a SPAC where he (via Achilles Capital / DDM) was a major sponsor, at what looked like bargain terms. The chairman and new CEO rightly put a stop to it. Shortly after, the selling began. He sold the majority of his holdings around 4 SEK. Karma is real. In parallel, Achilles Capital and its parent DDM Finance have been forced to apply for corporate reconstruction due to massive debt issues. The contrast between opportunism and long-term conviction could not be clearer. Harish Krishnaswamy came in via the MixComm acquisition. I will not lie I like Harish. He is technically strong and has an excellent network that helped land key development agreements, including CHIPS Act wins. At the same time, I am not surprised he is selling. He has sold multiple times before, often at 4–8 SEK levels. This latest sale seems to be his chance to redeem all the earlier exits at much lower prices a kind of psychological average to finally make it feel better. Am I happy about it? No. But this is the same person who, several times right after Sivers secured major agreements, sold and killed the momentum, or sold when tax bills came due. As one of the founders, I think he simply wanted to feel that his years at MixComm finally delivered something tangible. This was the last time, and frankly, it feels damn good. Funds that fully exited did so because they operate under strict risk mandates and manage other people’s money. That is natural and not a negative signal. These departures represent a healthy cleansing. The right people and the right long-term capital are now aligned for the next phase. The Path Forward No one has a crystal ball. No one knows exactly how large the Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) market will ultimately become. But I genuinely believe people will be shocked by the speed and momentum once it really starts ramping. The combination of exploding AI compute demand, power constraints in data centers, and Sivers’ differentiated indium phosphide laser platform positions the company at the center of one of the most important technology shifts of this decade. The current momentum validates what patient shareholders have long seen. Product ramps, pipeline conversion, CHIPS Act milestones, and potential US dual-listing preparations are tangible progress. Volatility will remain; bears will resurface. But conviction built on deep research outlasts noise. To newer investors: Do your own work. Ignore the echo chamber of fear. Build your own mosaic from primary sources. True edges come from independent thinking. The easy path is skepticism and short-termism. The harder, more rewarding one is sustained belief grounded in analysis. Sivers was never a quick flip. It was and remains a multi-year compounder for those willing to look beyond the noise. The diamond was always there for those with the eyes to see it. The journey is far from over, and the best chapters are still ahead. Stay bullish. Stay informed. And above all, trust the work you’ve done.

$SIVE We know of JPM because they crossed 5% on 6/2. How many other US financial institutions also took stakes at 2, 3 & >4%?

@OTPPoppy 太厉害啦！可惜sive也没有躲过风雨

真的有种在暴风雨天气躲在家里的舒适感….

Bullish @sive institutions are catching up!

@aleabitoreddit @Sofigoodboy I owe all Protean funds and I’m really happy with them, and Richard Bråse isn’t stupid, but if any of his funds short $SIVE I’m selling all of my assets in the funds

今天我也买了一些 继续看涨

급락하길래 급하게 삼성증권 전화했는데 매수 안 걸렸네.. $sive

看来大多数人都是选择不借，我个人也是会选择不借 理由很简单，股票上涨带来的收益会比借 $sive 来的多得多 有可能空军就差你这一股 扭转局势😏

今天来看看他们的最新持仓变化，我真心觉得有一家机构对待 $sive的态度就和普通散户一样，不断的试仓，不断的止损，那么现在开始吧： 1. 我们首先谈论的还是 Two sigma，我们会发现通过昨天的下跌，他们小幅度回补了仓位从6月3号的 2.18% 补到了 2.20%，这意味着他们的数据模型认为110 SEK价位是阶段性高点，触发了做空信号，同时这也属于属于对冲再平衡，维持相对稳定的风险敞口。 2. Voleon 继续减仓，和我们上次谈论的一样，他们正在慢慢的减仓从而换取尽可能少的亏损，他们从2.02%进一步降至1.95%，继续有序撤退，减幅0.07%，比上一轮（-0.25%）明显放缓。说明从侧面说明了可用的流动性越来越紧，每天能平仓的量越来越少。 这和我们之前谈论的一样，他们不可能直接全部退出，全部退出无异于用流动性砸死自己。 3. 我们的老朋友三进三出的 Qube！这是非常戏剧性的变化。Qube从 <0.5% 重新加仓至0.56%，这已经是他们第三次开仓了。 我们从时间线就能知道他们的想法： 他们的第一次止损0.80% → <0.5% 这是第二次开仓 <0.5% → 0.79% 第二次又止损0.79% → <0.5% 现在是第三次开仓！<0.5% → 0.56% 从他这个加仓逻辑就能知道所谓的做空机构并没有什么内幕消息，也不可能会有，因为他们在110 SEK历史新高附近再次入场做空，这说明他们的量化模型在极端高波动+RSI超买环境下，会机械性地反复触发信号，完全无视前两次亏损的”历史教训”。这正是量化基金的特性没有情绪记忆，只有信号。 我认为Voleon会持续减仓知道没有，而Qube这次开仓价格比较好，所以还是盈利状态，Two sigma今天过后估计也是加仓状态。 这或许是他们借到了股票，也可能是空军新闻有了效果，还可能是因为大盘的拖累。 但目前来看他们是做好了持久战的准备。 做出自己判断！

@Sofigoodboy A 15% dilution $SIVE is just standard operating procedure for scaling capacity at this stage—the shorts are overplaying their hand if they think a routine AGM vote justifies their thesis. x.com/Dmytro_Lebid/s…